Downswing - bad luck or a leak I need to find?

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leeroy818

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Going through a downswing at the moment playing micro 6max sit n gos. Obviously trying to figure out what’s been going so wrong. Wondered if anyone has any comments on the fact that my net expected line is fairly steady/slightly up over the last 20k hands, but my actual (green) line is way down.

Is net expected something I should ignore in terms of being a gauge of how “well” I’ve been playing? Or does it mean what I feel like it means, that I’m just getting a bit unlucky at the moment? (I swear, I haven’t won a 50-50 flip for days haha!)

If the former, what else do people use or look for in their database to find leaks? Hand reviews aside (which I’m doing more of at the moment), I have started studying ICM theory recently which I feel has improved some of my decisions on the bubble already, but without anything to show for it on the tables unfortunately.

If the latter, any tips on coping with a bad run?! Is this a long downswing in the scheme of things? 20k hands feels long, but I am playing quite a bit, so in real time it’s about 2 weeks. I’m sure people have gone through downswings way longer.

Still enjoying my sessions and as motivated as ever to improve, thanks in advance for any advice.

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veltins

veltins

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Could be the combination of both. You can see from stats if using pt4 to know if theres leaks. As long as you know your leaks then bad luck does not last long , the good times will come back as well .
 
makisaa

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It is a common situation, I think it will reverse. Your diagramm shows a big drop, but I think that the next will be a raise of the line!
 
terryk

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Mo matter how good we are,,,(or think we are,,,) we will always have "downswings",,,i like to switch sites for awhile and come back,,,:deal:
 
David macdonald

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Mo matter how good we are,,,(or think we are,,,) we will always have "downswings",,,i like to switch sites for awhile and come back,,,:deal:
Or unplug the pc and handcuff yourself in another room then throw away the key .
 
David macdonald

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Going through a downswing at the moment playing micro 6max sit n gos. Obviously trying to figure out what’s been going so wrong. Wondered if anyone has any comments on the fact that my net expected line is fairly steady/slightly up over the last 20k hands, but my actual (green) line is way down.

Is net expected something I should ignore in terms of being a gauge of how “well” I’ve been playing? Or does it mean what I feel like it means, that I’m just getting a bit unlucky at the moment? (I swear, I haven’t won a 50-50 flip for days haha!)

If the former, what else do people use or look for in their database to find leaks? Hand reviews aside (which I’m doing more of at the moment), I have started studying ICM theory recently which I feel has improved some of my decisions on the bubble already, but without anything to show for it on the tables unfortunately.

If the latter, any tips on coping with a bad run?! Is this a long downswing in the scheme of things? 20k hands feels long, but I am playing quite a bit, so in real time it’s about 2 weeks. I’m sure people have gone through downswings way longer.

Still enjoying my sessions and as motivated as ever to improve, thanks in advance for any advice.

View attachment 291150
Mate 6 max has serious variance just like HU , hard to believe right but yeah it does.

The downswings can be pretty insane
 
recerveau

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Going through a downswing at the moment playing micro 6max sit n gos. Obviously trying to figure out what’s been going so wrong. Wondered if anyone has any comments on the fact that my net expected line is fairly steady/slightly up over the last 20k hands, but my actual (green) line is way down.

Is net expected something I should ignore in terms of being a gauge of how “well” I’ve been playing? Or does it mean what I feel like it means, that I’m just getting a bit unlucky at the moment? (I swear, I haven’t won a 50-50 flip for days haha!)

If the former, what else do people use or look for in their database to find leaks? Hand reviews aside (which I’m doing more of at the moment), I have started studying ICM theory recently which I feel has improved some of my decisions on the bubble already, but without anything to show for it on the tables unfortunately.

If the latter, any tips on coping with a bad run?! Is this a long downswing in the scheme of things? 20k hands feels long, but I am playing quite a bit, so in real time it’s about 2 weeks. I’m sure people have gone through downswings way longer.

Still enjoying my sessions and as motivated as ever to improve, thanks in advance for any advice.

View attachment 291150
This is very complex to analyze. The quality you are playing with on a daily basis profoundly influences your results.
Doing an analysis without this knowledge is very complicated.
 
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leeroy818

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Mo matter how good we are,,,(or think we are,,,) we will always have "downswings",,,i like to switch sites for awhile and come back,,,:deal:



Yeah for sure, I'm comfortable with variance and am working hard on my mental game to try and make sure I'm trying to play as best as I can even if the cards aren't falling my way!

Switching sites is something I considered as a temporary thing, so thanks for that!
 
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leeroy818

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Mate 6 max has serious variance just like HU , hard to believe right but yeah it does.

The downswings can be pretty insane


Interesting. I'm playing turbo sng's at 6max too, so I guess that only increases variance. I do see other players in these games on sharkscope who have beautiful linear graphs though - so they must be beatable on a consistent basis if quite a few are already doing it.

I'm confident my downswing is not just a luck issue - there are obviously leaks. But I'm wondering how much I should 'eat myself up' as it were. Should I be working extra hard to find them, or is this graph telling me that in fact I shouldn't beat myself up and try to continue to have a good 'expected' line?
 
David macdonald

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Interesting. I'm playing turbo sng's at 6max too, so I guess that only increases variance. I do see other players in these games on sharkscope who have beautiful linear graphs though - so they must be beatable on a consistent basis if quite a few are already doing it.

I'm confident my downswing is not just a luck issue - there are obviously leaks. But I'm wondering how much I should 'eat myself up' as it were. Should I be working extra hard to find them, or is this graph telling me that in fact I shouldn't beat myself up and try to continue to have a good 'expected' line?
Hand analysis can never go wrong , using calculators and solvers to see the mistakes.

Just focus on your A game, if you are doing the correct things everything will come good in the end.
 
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leeroy818

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This is very complex to analyze. The quality you are playing with on a daily basis profoundly influences your results.
Doing an analysis without this knowledge is very complicated.


Yeah that's fair enough. I did consider this before posting.

So, what are some of the other things would you typically look within your database when trying to figure out the 'quality' of your play, if 'net expected won' alone isn't sufficient for any analysis?

I assume the ICM value of my pushes and folds near the bubble would be important?
 
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leeroy818

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Hand analysis can never go wrong , using calculators and solvers to see the mistakes.

Just focus on your A game, if you are doing the correct things everything will come good in the end.[/QUOTE


Thanks for the input. I have started using a couple of bits of software to help analyse hands - I'm a Mac user but oRanges is pretty good (similar to Flopzilla). Looking at ICMizer too.

I guess I am partly looking for some consolation for the losing run - I feel like I'm playing as well as I ever have, but just started losing! I'm aware that I could be implementing new strategies incorrectly, but I wondered whether the net expected line is likely showing that's not the case?
 
David macdonald

David macdonald

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Hand analysis can never go wrong , using calculators and solvers to see the mistakes.

Just focus on your A game, if you are doing the correct things everything will come good in the end.[/QUOTE


Thanks for the input. I have started using a couple of bits of software to help analyse hands - I'm a Mac user but oRanges is pretty good (similar to Flopzilla). Looking at ICMizer too.

I guess I am partly looking for some consolation for the losing run - I feel like I'm playing as well as I ever have, but just started losing! I'm aware that I could be implementing new strategies incorrectly, but I wondered whether the net expected line is likely showing that's not the case?
I think over time you will know what Is working and what isn't working. Variance and bad luck happens in poker, like I said analyse your hands and check if you were ahead pre flop, flop , turn and river. See who was to act first and did you bet correctly to get your opponent off the hand or enough to suck him/ her in. If bluffing did you bet enough on all streets. Did you have the right pot odds to call , was the equity correct ect ect ? Just look over it all and if you feel comfortable you did it all correctly then it's just bad luck.

Use a leak finder if you want to look further into it, only time will tell if the net line is a true reflection
 
Chebchoub

Chebchoub

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I think it's a matter of some bad days even if we apply all the rules of poker professionally. I don't believe in luck in poker, but in this case I became a believer that there are days when I can't win even a cent
 
nuttea

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Going through a downswing at the moment playing micro 6max sit n gos. Obviously trying to figure out what’s been going so wrong. Wondered if anyone has any comments on the fact that my net expected line is fairly steady/slightly up over the last 20k hands, but my actual (green) line is way down.

Is net expected something I should ignore in terms of being a gauge of how “well” I’ve been playing? Or does it mean what I feel like it means, that I’m just getting a bit unlucky at the moment? (I swear, I haven’t won a 50-50 flip for days haha!)

If the former, what else do people use or look for in their database to find leaks? Hand reviews aside (which I’m doing more of at the moment), I have started studying ICM theory recently which I feel has improved some of my decisions on the bubble already, but without anything to show for it on the tables unfortunately.

If the latter, any tips on coping with a bad run?! Is this a long downswing in the scheme of things? 20k hands feels long, but I am playing quite a bit, so in real time it’s about 2 weeks. I’m sure people have gone through downswings way longer.

Still enjoying my sessions and as motivated as ever to improve, thanks in advance for any advice.

View attachment 291150
From the point of view of mathematics, the losing streak, due to which the player loses part of the profit or goes into the red, is explained by the phenomenon of Dispersion. According to the theory of probability, the chances that an event will happen can deviate from the calculated ones - in a positive or negative direction. Most often, these deviations do not have a noticeable effect on the expected result. However, in some cases, they turn out to be significant and long-term.When analyzing, it is important to pay attention to the following points in order to identify factors not caused by Dispersion: Change of limits - if there was an increase or decrease in limits, it is possible that the reason for the fall in profit is precisely this, and not an accident. Table Selection - Changing your seating strategy can have a significant impact on your poker income. For example, strengthening the playing field can affect performance. The share of variance solutions - if a poker player starts to use variance solutions more often, his profit can significantly decrease.
 
Zapahlohotrona

Zapahlohotrona

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With variance, you can fight only by the amount of play. Infinite distance is unattainable and the lines must converge at the end, but since it is unattainable, they should not converge to anyone as a story that the lines will converge for sure. And 20,000 hands is a minor deviation. In general, for everyone. This was and will be. You just have to endure this period. You have a great schedule.
 
recerveau

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Yeah that's fair enough. I did consider this before posting.

So, what are some of the other things would you typically look within your database when trying to figure out the 'quality' of your play, if 'net expected won' alone isn't sufficient for any analysis?

I assume the ICM value of my pushes and folds near the bubble would be important?
I look at the graphic as a representation of my game, not much more than that. Poker variance and other obscure factors are very deceiving on the graph. I look at him but pay more attention to my studies and play.

This part of the ICM you mentioned is very important. I study her, but I don't take the chart so much into consideration.

It's a personal matter. I believe that everyone gets a cool way to study.
 
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