In that situation its really bad for you to run into a situation, where you need to play a "flip" for your 20BB, like if for instance you pick up AK, and another player pick up JJ. If you lose, you are out without cashing, and if you win, you did not dubble your expected value (EV) in the tournament. Instead a lot of the EV of the busted player has gone to the short stacks, since they are now more likely to cash.
Let me preface this by saying I don't know much about ICM, and I know you're more learned in the ways of poker than I. I'm not arguing--just trying to understand.
Bottom line: you don't have to flip when you're 3 away from the money. Playing your hands and not flipping aren't mutually exclusive as long as no one has all-in'd pre-flop, in which case you can fold, rather than take the max turn length. Let's say you have AK and someone has already jammed. Easy fold if that's what you want to do. Let's say you have AK and open raise and then someone jams. Still an easy fold if that's what you want to do--3 BB down the drain, oh well, you're still triple the short stacks, and if everyone were really playing that nitty, your open raise might have a chance of getting through anyways, in which case you've sent a few extra big blinds' worth of padding your own direction.
If you do wind up flipping and winning, I don't understand your point about not doubling EV in the tournament and the busted players' EV going to the short stacks. In fact, I've never heard of EV as applied to a tournament or a player specifically--I've heard it only as applied to hands (don't see how it can be calculated without equities unless you're using chips stacks as compared to total chips in play as
equity, which seems like a poor measure at best; furthermore, payout structures would greatly complicate any type of tournament EV calculations because of the inherent volatility of the game). In the situation where you lose, obviously you're right, which is why it's ideal to avoid a flip. In the situation where you win, you're now no longer a middling stack, are virtually guaranteed to get ITM and probably deeper, and are one position closer to the money. Regarding the busted players' EV going to the short stacks because they are now more likely to cash--who cares? You got the busted players' chips, and the short stacks are more than likely going to be eliminated before the money or shortly after ITM anyways. I don't see why you have to act the enforcer of who makes the money and doesn't when the same number of players will be making the money. In fact, it would be more advantageous to have the short stacks make the money by that logic because it would be easier to pressure them and ladder up further, especially if you had doubled up previously.
Anyways, I appreciate the response and look forward to your next one that I may learn something new!
- Sundizzel