Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

ObbleeXY

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A few questions...apologies if you get these a lot:
1) When a rebuy is immediately available (ie you don't need to bust out), is it foolish to not do so?
2) Similarly, is it foolish to pass up on the opportunity for an add-on?
3) I often play freeroll satellites, and quite often lead the tournament from early on until circa 20-30 players. (Assume 2000 started). I'm happy navigating my way through up until this point, but find it harder when I get to the point where most people have <10BB and everyone is simply shoving.
How do shove and call ranges change when one gets to this point in the match. I'm getting tired of missing out on those tickets.
4) I do manage to win a fair few of the freeroll satellites but find myself getting crushed when I play the next round. How does one adjust to how different the games later satellite rounds are, as it seems the strats that got me there don't work at the higher levels?
Thanks!
Regards.,
JT
 
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Dara OKearney, I followed you on twitter and you didn't follow back 😂...
 
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Hello Dara, thank you for taking the time to answer my question as well, I`m curious how professional poker players deal with emotions. When you have a great hand, what`s Your best "trick" to hide the joy, or when you lose terribly, how do you accept it? I mean, I do focus on various things and end up making mistakes and calling KJo against KQo and the villain hits a Q in the river and I`m done....that marks me for a while, and you see...English is a second language for me, in it, you would call this Tilt. How do you fade it away? or accept it and move on faster? More than 1 question for you to choose as a favorite :D
 
Dara OKearney

Dara OKearney

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Hello
I will like to know what is in your opinion the way to handle tournament like this one (Pokerstars Splash).

The late reg end after 1 hour (a single rebuy cost $2.20 and give you 2.5bb double rebuy give you 5bb)

The rebuy period last for another 30 min. What the strategy here ? sit-out and wait for the add-on (which is 10x the amounts of chips) or try to accumulate chip ?

At the end of the rebuy period you get 33000 chips (3.3b) but a LOT of players gived up. (see the screenshot, 9 players left, 4 players paid, 2 seats) I see Huge value in that but i'm not sure how to handle it. All the remaining plays were huge fish except me and preston300. We both had the same strategy of min buy in and wait the add-on.
These used to be my specialty when they were first introduced! They were called 3x's back then and almost everyone played them terribly.

Strategy is to get to add on as cheap as possible and then add on.

Thanks for your question!
 
Dara OKearney

Dara OKearney

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A few questions...apologies if you get these a lot:
1) When a rebuy is immediately available (ie you don't need to bust out), is it foolish to not do so?
2) Similarly, is it foolish to pass up on the opportunity for an add-on?
3) I often play freeroll satellites, and quite often lead the tournament from early on until circa 20-30 players. (Assume 2000 started). I'm happy navigating my way through up until this point, but find it harder when I get to the point where most people have <10BB and everyone is simply shoving.
How do shove and call ranges change when one gets to this point in the match. I'm getting tired of missing out on those tickets.
4) I do manage to win a fair few of the freeroll satellites but find myself getting crushed when I play the next round. How does one adjust to how different the games later satellite rounds are, as it seems the strats that got me there don't work at the higher levels?
Thanks!
Regards.,
JT
Hi,

Interesting questions!

1. Generally you shouldn't take a rebuy unless you have to, particularly in tournaments where the addon is bigger. We talk about this in detail in "Endgame poker strategy" but for example, if starting stack and rebuys give you 10k chips and the addon 20k in a 100 buyin, if you take the immediate rebuy (and add on) you end up paying $300 for 40k chips. If you just take the addon, you get 30k for $200, 25% less chips for 33% less money, so a much better deal. Additionally, because of ICM the additional 10k chips are actually less valuable than the other 30k in your stack.
2. It's almost always incorrect to pass up on the add on. The only exception is if you have so many chips already that the add on adds less to the value of your stack than the cost of the add on.
3. When effective stacks are 10 bb or less, it's shove or fold. The best way to master these spots is to run lots of them in a preflop solver like HRC or ICMiser, or a tool like GTOWizard (which has a trainer)
4. As you move up levels and play higher calibre opponents, specific exploits will work less and less and you need to have good GTO fundamentals. I obviously recommend my book "GTO Poker Simplified" as a good place to start. After that, tools like GTOWizard are the best way to study and improve

Thanks for your questions!
 
Poker Orifice

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I obviously recommend my book "GTO Poker Simplified" as a good place to start
I purchased your book and am about 1/2 way through. I'm really enjoying it! (I also have the Satellite book, the PKO book, and EndGame,).
 
Dara OKearney

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Would you trade your poker career for the marathon career if you could :)

What a question! I think I enjoyed my marathon career more but poker is a lot more lucrative. I started poker at the point my marathon career was winding down anyway (due to age) so it started as a replacement and became something much bigger
 
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What cities are you hoping to visit to play poker? And when you do travel to places, do you often spend a lot of time there?
 
Dara OKearney

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Hi Dara,

Do you think your work with satellite strategy is done now, or do you think there is more to be discovered? Do you think they are 'solved'?

What do you think about these tournaments which have a regularprizepool, but also offer 20 seats to a bigger buy in? Example is this $11 PKO on Stars which is also has 16x Sunday Milly seats aswell.

Cheers
What an interesting question!

I think it's largely done and the book and the course contain at least 95% of what's there to be known, but there's always some new strategy winkles, particularly when new formats (like the Target Stack satellites) pop up.

The tournaments you mention are closer to normal tournaments than satellites for most of them, but resemble a satellite more near the ticket bubble.

Thanks for your question.
 
Tadi

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Respect Dara,
Is there an age limit after which a person should not start playing poker if they want to be at all successful?
 
Dara OKearney

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Hello, DOK. Is this thing still on? If so...

9-handed sit and go. 8 players left. Hero is the chip leader.

BTN: 38.8 BB
SB: 7.94 BB
BB: 82.9 BB
UTG: 38.9 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 89.42 BB
MP: 29.64 BB
MP+1: 38.6 BB
CO: 33.8 BB

Ante of 0.8 BB.

UTG folds. Hero in UTG+1 is dealt TcTd and raises to 2.5 BB. MP calls, MP+1 reshoves 38.5 BB, CO is all-in with 33.7 BB, and it folds back to Hero.

I only have 9 hands on MP+1 - we're only 9 hands into the game - and this is the first time he's VPIP.

I only have 24 hands on CO, but he's been loose, for what that's worth.

Against 1 player, I'm maybe/probably calling. Against 2 players, I folded. I felt one of them - especially CO - likely had a bigger pair than TT.

After the game, using PokerCruncher, I put them both on 66+, two suited Broadway cards, AQo and AKo, and T9s. Given those ranges, I would have had 34.6% equity vs pot odds of 31%.

Was folding too tight? To what extent do we factor in that it's a "final table" and we have the opportunity to eliminate two players?

Thanks
I don't think I'd call JJ here so definitely fold TT. I'd put the, on tighter ranges though: probably TT AQ+ for the first all in and QQ+ second guy. You really think they're both sticking it in with 66 or T9s? Must be wild stt!

Thanks for your question!
 
Dara OKearney

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Hi Dara,

If you had to have HUD stats for a specific player pool you regularly play satties with, what would you have on it?
Very interesting question!

Mainly I'd focus on how wide they call as this is the single biggest determinant of strategy around bubbles. Also 3Bet numbers: in satellites it costs more to fold to 3 bets so with marginal opens I'd be checking the stats of players behind to see how likely they are to 3 bet if I open.

Thanks for your question!
 
Andyreas

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Hi Dara, did I play this wrong somehow or just a stupid cooler?

We're on the bubble for Sunday Million sattelite. 5 Tickets and 6 players left.

Should I have jammed pre-flop? I decided otherwise due to the two smaller stacks. But definitely cannot fold this pre-flop.

pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop:
(3,600) Hero is CO with T T
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J 6 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8 (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T T (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6 3 (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632
 
A

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Hi Dara, did I play this wrong somehow or just a stupid cooler?

We're on the bubble for Sunday Million sattelite. 5 Tickets and 6 players left.

Should I have jammed pre-flop? I decided otherwise due to the two smaller stacks. But definitely cannot fold this pre-flop.

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop:
(3,600) Hero is CO with T T
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J 6 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8 (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T T (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6 3 (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632
2 shorter stacks, so would only be betting 2bb on the flop, you get the same information. i'm folding however to turn donk bet as still plenty to play with & you have effectively a bluff catcher with 6 outs, not even knowing if the 9s is live .
 
A

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hi dara,
live satellite for monster €760 package, 5 tickets, 7 left.
CL (aggressive but good solid player & best at table who i know well & have played with) has 45bb, me 25bb & rest range 15bb-25bb, so no-one safe.

Button raises 2bb, sb 25bb calls, i have 25bb in bb with 5c8c. I call. is this my first mistake & always a fold with this hand or similar 2 gappers even if suited?

flop 3c,5d,Tc. I honestly did not know whether to check/raise, donk out, or check/call ? opinion?

in the end, i donked 3bb (40% pot), button min raises me, sb folds. Even though around 55% at best, i folded.

think i played the hand horribly and its always either a check/raise all in, or a check/call & re-evaluate on turn, as i will have a lot more information on the turn. which would be better option?
 
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Hi Dara, thanks for your ongoing engagement with the community! A question about how you would approach registering for a series of upcoming live satties for a $1500 live event.

$50 (40+10)
You are allowed 3 rebuys
However when the rebuy period is up you can use any of them for add-ons, so basically $50 for 15K, $100 for 30k, $150 for 45K, $200 for 60K.

Once max late reg is complete, the blinds will start at 500/1k but 15 minutes later there is a big jump to 1k/2k.

In terms of ICM value of stack it seems clear to me after reading your books that the best value is $50 max late reg, since doubling our stack will not double our ICM value but do the other factors at play change your approach?

Namely the vast majority of the field will max add on, so average stack at max LR will be close to 60bb (although 30bb 15 mins later), they are all self dealt so minimal hands played per blind level and an exceptionally soft field.
 
Dara OKearney

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Hi Dara! Thanks for this thread, I've been reading some interesting things about it.
Sorry if I repeat a question, but I didn't see it before.

What's the propper way to calculate the profit/ROI when I play satellites?
For example, if I play 2x$5.50 sats to a $55 mtt, lose in one and win an entry in the other one. Then I play the event and cash $110. Would my ROI be 900% (not bad right?) or 100%.
I think that is the first one, but I'm not sure. Also looks like a lot, but I know that if I play regularly it wouldn't be that way everytime.
Hi,

Interesting question.

I personally track ROI in satellites separately from the target tournaments. In your example, your ROI over the small sample of two is 500%, and your ROI on the tournament itself is 100%. But if you're considering all three together it's 900%. The problem with this as I see it is if you don't cash the tournament that yields an ROI of -100%, which doesn't reflect the fact you won in the satellites (considering them separate, your ROI in satellites is still 500%, and in the tournament 0%).

Thanks for your question!
 
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Hi Dara, did I play this wrong somehow or just a stupid cooler?

We're on the bubble for Sunday Million sattelite. 5 Tickets and 6 players left.

Should I have jammed pre-flop? I decided otherwise due to the two smaller stacks. But definitely cannot fold this pre-flop.

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 21,329 (13 bb)
MP: 40,424 (25 bb)
CO (Hero): 28,016 (18 bb)
BU: 45,412 (28 bb)
SB: 22,314 (14 bb)
BB: 28,505 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop:
(3,600) Hero is CO with T T
2 players fold, Hero raises to 3,200, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,600

Flop: (8,400) J 6 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,200, BB calls 3,200

Turn: (14,800) 8 (2 players)
BB bets 5,476, Hero raises to 21,416 (all-in), BB calls 15,940

River: (57,632) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 57,632

Showdown:
CO (Hero) shows T T (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 77%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB shows 6 3 (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 23%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB wins 57,632
Your in stealing position and since BB did not 3bet you, majority of the time he does not have A or big pair. Standard BB defend is any suited or connector hand. You can take 1 stab at the pot represent J by betting half pot and then check/folding as you still have 13 BB. Hope it helps.
 
Dara OKearney

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Hi Dara,

In your original video series you show us an all in or fold strategy using HRC. With updates to HRC since then, if I run my own sims ( 9 remain, 10bb, 3 paid), it wants us to have a raise fold range.

Is this something you recommend or do you prefer to make it simple and keep a push/fold range, instead of using a strategy which is more + EV.

Cheers

Dan

Interesting question. For the vast majority of people I still recommend sticking to a shove/fold strategy because it's much much easier to implement and the EV gains from splitting your strategy are very very marginal. However, if you're grinding tons of satellites (eg online hypers are your main gain) or playing very high (1k and higher satellites) then it may be worth the time investment to learn to split your strategy.

Thanks for your question!
 
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As Bob Marley would say, “We're JAMMIN'”
 
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