Can you lay down AKo here

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WurlyQ

Visionary
Last 4 of a 180 man $2+.25 tournament. It's pretty much been primarily steals going back and forth with an occasional reraise or everyone folds to the sb who limps. This includes villain though he never made an all in bet before this.

Villain is like 20/6 through 30 hands though these numbers don't mean much because we are so short handed. I think villain is good enough that he doesn't just shove with AA or KK so it is either pockets or Ax.

I put him on a range of 5% AA or KK, 60% other pockets, 15% AK, 15% Ax, 5% other. What do other people think his distribution is and would you make this call?

Blinds are 1200/2400 Ante 300 = 4800 pot. Prize distribution is 97/61/45/36 or something like that.

Stacks:

* SB with 45576
* BB with 45922
* UTG with 91298
* BTN with 87204
hand.pl

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to BB:A♣ K♥
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
BTN raises to 86,904, and is all in
* * 1 players fold.
Hero ???https://www.cardschat.com
 
pedroman7

pedroman7

Rock Star
This looks like a smallish pair. That is generally what people do that with. I would say 22-99 is most likely. I also see this see this with TT-QQ and A9+ but much less likely. I say call expecting a coin flip most of the time, to be a head sometimes and almost never in bad shape.
 
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switch0723

Cardschat Elite
snap call, fist pump?

seriously this isn't even a debate, you 100% call here, there is no reason whatsoever that can allow a fold
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

Stacks & Stacks
Awards
1
Since you put his range mostly on QQ-22, you are most likely flipping. With AKo here you would like to be the one to control the action and you will still have plenty of chips to play with if you lay this down. If you don't think you can outplay the other 3 then taking the flip is OK. If you think you can outplay the other 3 then fold and work a spot where you have control.
 
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switch0723

Cardschat Elite
fhkagfhadgfhjdfhasvbfhbasdhfsdf

firstly its impossible to put him on a pp, unless you have x ray vision,

secondly even if you do, you still call

thirdly omg snap call
 
W

WurlyQ

Visionary
fhkagfhadgfhjdfhasvbfhbasdhfsdf

firstly its impossible to put him on a pp, unless you have x ray vision,

secondly even if you do, you still call

thirdly omg snap call

Okay my distribution and probabilities were approximate, but my point was that I felt very very strongly that they had a pair from previous play. Furthermore, what other hand would they shove with? An Ax steal risking half your chips? If they just raised any moderate amount, I would have shoved over the top.

Also, I realize that this play is +EV chip wise without question. However, having chips is +EV over not having chips money wise. Like Jillychemung said, the "can i outplay them" question came to my mind because I was pretty sure I was up against a pair (this points in favor of folding because I'm a big *****). I was weighing this along with the distribution of the prize structure in making my decision (this points in favor of calling due to the top heavy structure). The last factor was that I was not particulary deep stacked (M=~10) so would I be able to catch enough cards before I get very short stacked (favors calling).
 
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switch0723

Cardschat Elite
you don't think villain is shoving a,q here?

Seriously now, there is no justification to folding a,k 4 handed with an m of 10 to an open shove. Snap calling a,q is probably a must aswell
 
W

WurlyQ

Visionary
AQ plays pretty well post flop and they have position. I would certainly just raise if I were in their position. By just shoving, it also implies that the hand they have doesn't play particularly well post flop (or am i just reading into the situation too much?) As stated in my first post, I did alot 15% to Ax (x not being a K) to accomodate this situation.
 
Benjammn

Benjammn

Enthusiast
you don't think villain is shoving a,q here?

Seriously now, there is no justification to folding a,k 4 handed with an m of 10 to an open shove. Snap calling a,q is probably a must aswell
Well, don't get ahead of yourself. Plenty of flops come like 356 rainbow and your AKo just sucks when the villain's range could mean that he flopped a set or straight draw.

In this case, the call makes sense. Hope for A-lowerkicker, but expect pp and cross fingers IMO.
 
M

Mattmon27

Enthusiast
Well, I see alot of good points here. My guess is either 4 hands either jj ,AQo or suited doesn't matter, 99 ,or J 10 suited. Don't ask me about the J 10.
But yah it's gonna be a coin flip unless he has the mirical KK.
 
The Shrog

The Shrog

Cardschat Elite
seriously this isn't even a debate, you 100% call here, there is no reason whatsoever that can allow a fold

Yea, there is no real decision here. I call this every time.
 
C

cardsDontMatter

Rock Star
Sometimes I find myself ranging Villains to my range in certain situations...

What do you think is Villain's range on you ... ?

If you've been wishy-washy with your blinds, he can make this move with any two.

I am pretty psyched to get my chips in here.
 
J

jrosekcs

Rock Star
Call Call Call......u r already ahead money wise and shrt stacked...if u win the race u are now in control...if not then u have made 30 some dollars....chances are he has mid pockets or highg suited and really doesn't want to see a flop:cool:
 
W

WurlyQ

Visionary
Mmm... I was hoping for a few more arguments on the other side or what villain's range is here but I guess I'll just conclude that I have to call here. I realize call is the standard "correct" play but I was looking for every possible reason that it may not be. Thanks for the replies!

In the actual tournament, I tank considering these possibilities and eventually call because of the reasons in my previous post, villain flips up 77 and they hold up. I think call is correct here but if I had an M > 15 and/or the prize structure was less top heavy, I would have laid this down.
 
JayRodAAKK

JayRodAAKK

Rising Star
I agree SNAP call . But who in the hell really folds this preflop all in anyway? I know i dont , But hey most agree im not that good anyway lol.
 
thekazh

thekazh

Enthusiast
4-handed, you got 20BB´s there is no way you can fold this...
...unless youre main-goal is to finsih top three instead of winning....
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
In the actual tournament, I tank considering these possibilities and eventually call because of the reasons in my previous post, villain flips up 77 and they hold up.

we already knew this from your post though. "can i lay this down?" = "i lost this hand". "(i put villain on) 60% other pockets" = "villain had a pocket pair". try and phrase your threads a little less blatantly in the future. :p

there are 16 possible combinations of each of AQ, AJ and AT. thus 48 total combos. we obviously lose some combos because an ace is dead but for the sake of simplicity we'll offset this by accounting for the rare occasions villain is making a stupid bluff with random cards or maybe has something like KQs.

there are 6 combos of each pair. let's say villain shoves with 66+ (which is reasonably in line with him shoving AT+ I think, if we add more pairs we have to add more Ax hands), so there are 42 combos of QQ-66.

given that we're flipping with pairs which happens less than half the time anyway and are dominating villain in the vast majority of other cases (i.e. invariably any time he doesn't have AA-KK), we snapcall and be happy.

edit: looking at effective stacks (which i didn't at first rofls) seeing as he's shoving into shorties his range is def wider, but this just makes things better for us because there are more combos of every Ax hand we add to his range compared with every pair we add.
 
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Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
The last factor was that I was not particulary deep stacked (M=~10)
And you weren't even that good off. You're at final table and down to 4 of 9 seats, so your effective M (M*4/9) is 4.25. Villian's effective M is jsut over 8. He's shoving a huge range here including any pair any A, many kings, and probably most any two face cards (among some other stuff we're not considering if he thinks it's his turn to steal).

you don't think villain is shoving a,q here?

Seriously now, there is no justification to folding a,k 4 handed with an effective m of 4.25 to an open shove. Snap calling a,q is probably a must aswell
^^^ this
 
W

WurlyQ

Visionary
we already knew this from your post though. "can i lay this down?" = "i lost this hand". "(i put villain on) 60% other pockets" = "villain had a pocket pair". try and phrase your threads a little less blatantly in the future. :p

Haha, ya got me. Next time, I'm going to do a post with the exact same name where I'm ahead and win the hand :D

there are 16 possible combinations of each of AQ, AJ and AT. thus 48 total combos. we obviously lose some combos because an ace is dead but for the sake of simplicity we'll offset this by accounting for the rare occasions villain is making a stupid bluff with random cards or maybe has something like KQs.

there are 6 combos of each pair. let's say villain shoves with 66+ (which is reasonably in line with him shoving AT+ I think, if we add more pairs we have to add more Ax hands), so there are 42 combos of QQ-66.

given that we're flipping with pairs which happens less than half the time anyway and are dominating villain in the vast majority of other cases (i.e. invariably any time he doesn't have AA-KK), we snapcall and be happy.

The reason why I think they have pockets here is because of betting patterns. They mixed up min raise -3.5x bb raise like 8-10x (where they did show down Ax) and then just shoved here. I guess one of those gut instinct kind of things that I may need to let go of a little more. Also, is shoving here with AT really +EV? I do like that more and more people are saying that his range includes Ax which is kind of what I wanted to hear :)


And you weren't even that good off. You're at final table and down to 4 of 9 seats, so your effective M (M*4/9) is 4.25. Villian's effective M is jsut over 8. He's shoving a huge range here including any pair any A, many kings, and probably most any two face cards (among some other stuff we're not considering if he thinks it's his turn to steal).

This is actually a huge point I overlooked. Adjust my previous statement of possibly folding this to having an M>30. Thanks :)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
Haha, ya got me. Next time, I'm going to do a post with the exact same name where I'm ahead and win the hand :D

i bet when you do that next time i'll find the thread before you post results, post my super psychic comments and look stupid. :(

The reason why I think they have pockets here is because of betting patterns. They mixed up min raise -3.5x bb raise like 8-10x (where they did show down Ax) and then just shoved here. I guess one of those gut instinct kind of things that I may need to let go of a little more. Also, is shoving here with AT really +EV? I do like that more and more people are saying that his range includes Ax which is kind of what I wanted to hear :)

given stacks i'd tend to standard raise with AT, as well as make a standard raise with any strongish hand (as opposed to shoving). open shoving AT is probably +EV here though against your average SB and BB.

i think in general the huge shove as opposed to a standard raise makes this more likely to be a mid pair or AK/AQ than either a very marginal hand (like weaker Axs) or a very strong one (AA-KK), and if you have a read that supplements that then 'tis good and you can adjust his range accordingly.
 
V

viking999

Visionary
Micro Chip Explosion Principle: Do not assume a consistent pattern of play at micro stakes, even if the subject in question has been playing according to a pattern thus far. These f'ers are mentally unstable.
 
W

WurlyQ

Visionary
given stacks i'd tend to standard raise with AT, as well as make a standard raise with any strongish hand (as opposed to shoving). open shoving AT is probably +EV here though against your average SB and BB.

i think in general the huge shove as opposed to a standard raise makes this more likely to be a mid pair or AK/AQ than either a very marginal hand (like weaker Axs) or a very strong one (AA-KK), and if you have a read that supplements that then 'tis good and you can adjust his range accordingly.

I think this is pretty much in line with the range/probabilities that I gave in the opening post of "5% AA or KK, 60% other pockets, 15% AK, 15% Ax, 5% other" though you'll probably tell me to tone down the "other pockets" and up the "Ax" a bit. While it's good that I'm thinking along the same lines as you, I do have the problem of giving people too much credit at micro stakes sometimes so I definitely do have to weigh that in a little more.

Micro Chip Explosion Principle: Do not assume a consistent pattern of play at micro stakes, even if the subject in question has been playing according to a pattern thus far. These f'ers are mentally unstable.

It's certainly true that people are random at micro stakes as I just witnessed someone with ~120 BB just shove AA UTG. This actually might not be a bad play given people's likelihood of calling in microstakes... However, I will say that even at micro stakes, in 45+ MTT's the last couple generally tend to be pretty mechanical players so I do like to give them some credit for logical play. Here, that would be announcing that they have a hand that's good preflop but they don't want to see a flop.

well you know why you lost right? coz you slowrolled him

Haha, must be.
 
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Cowboy8112

Cowboy8112

Visionary
you are faced with an all in and you have an Ace high. I am in the minority here but this is a fold. He is on the button. He has 2 free hands to get better cards, he has no reason to go all in here except to dubble up. IMHO this is a fold
 
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