Who made the bad decision?

aliengenius

aliengenius

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The title of this thread is misguided. I personally think that both of you played it well, unless one of you is the tightest "stick up the ass" player in the world, which I wouldn't know having never played with you guys.

DJ's raise looks like a steal, so it's very reasonable to reraise with AQs OOP to take it down right there (but still be in good shape versus a call). AG's reraise looks like a move against a steal, so it's reasonable to think 99 is still the best hand.

DJ had 3 options: fold, call, or raise all-in. AG, you said you put DJ on 99+, A9+, KQ after his all-in. So after your reraise, it makes sense that he'd put you on an even wider range, including some total garbage that's just restealing. So I think folding is pretty unreasonable. It reduces risk, but I'm not really interested in that when I see a pretty much clear cut +EV spot. DJ could have just called, but he's going to be playing almost as much in the dark after the flop as before. The only clear cut flop is one with a 9 or 3 overcards. Only then do you reap the benefits of just calling. If AG is continuation betting almost any flop as he claims, then DJ is likely going to make as many bad folds or bad calls as he would make bad shoves preflop. Plus, just calling loses the fold equity versus hands like A8, JT, and total garbage. So, I'd go for the all-in.

For AG, if DJ's range is as stated above, then the all-in call is a no brainer. 2:1 odds, only 4 hands we're in bad shape against and 8 we're in healthy or dominating shape against.

AG, as for your assessment that shoving with AQs being better than shoving with 99, I think you overestimate your chances of being called and dominating. Let's say the hands were reversed. If the player making the calling decision puts you on the same range (99+, A9+, KQ), then he's almost never calling with AJ, which is your big money hand. It's in bad shape versus 6 hands, in a race with 4 hands (I consider KQ a race here, the edge being offset by the defecit against 99 and TT), and dominating versus only 2 hands. Not gonna crunch the numbers, but I think even getting 2:1 it's about 0 EV. Plus, it's a high risk, tournament life call. So even though 99 is never going to get called when it's dominating except on a fluke, AQ is in the same boat. They are called when dominated just about as often. So I think the slight edge of 99 against AQ and AK makes the difference.

Good post. I thoroughly disagree about AQ vs smaller/mid pair however, situation being reversed. You make a point of saying AJ will fold when I re-re-raise shove, but so should hands that are "ahead" of me like mid/small pairs (good fold equity). You give AJ the chance to make a mistake by calling, and the pair to make a mistake by folding by being aggressive with AQ.

1. The extra value of a big ace like AK/AQ is preflop, in their fold equity, and in their low chance of domination when called. You will get called by weaker aces, and getting called by race hands fine, since any money already in the pot will more than compensate for the few % pts you are behind in the long term-- BUT they are often "correct" to fold these hands to a re-re-raise shove (fold equity)!
2. My call w AQ here is not something I really like to do (I don't like calling an all in with anything other than AA really), but understanding over played hands/over aggression in these situations will compensate long term for times we see a bigger hand.
3. 99 shoving when he knows he is racing or crushed, admittedly having calculated zero fold equity, is easily the worse decision.
 
dj11

dj11

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I like Vikings post, AG's reply to it shows me he is missing something.

I saw AG's reraise as an attempt to steal my steal. I saw that I was in a no win situation as far as post flop to come. Whatever flops, he is shoving. My decision was that though I really wasn't pot committed, I could have curled up like a sick cat and left this pot and had to put the big decision back on his head.

My initial raise was correct, but his reraise was probably unnecessary. If he calls in that spot, and sees the flop, he minimizes his risk, and in the end benefits from me folding to that big flop bet.

Any move that creates a coin toss is not a good move early in any tourney IMO.


On a lighter note, my spring loaded suckout smasher is tensing up as another weekend of combat is near.
 
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viking999

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1. The extra value of a big ace like AK/AQ is preflop, in their fold equity, and in their low chance of domination when called. You will get called by weaker aces, and getting called by race hands fine, since any money already in the pot will more than compensate for the few % pts you are behind in the long term-- BUT they are often "correct" to fold these hands to a re-re-raise shove (fold equity)!
2. My call w AQ here is not something I really like to do (I don't like calling an all in with anything other than AA really), but understanding over played hands/over aggression in these situations will compensate long term for times we see a bigger hand.
3. 99 shoving when he knows he is racing or crushed, admittedly having calculated zero fold equity, is easily the worse decision.

I was talking about in a scenario like the one that unfolded in this hand. If I were in DJ's shoes, I would rather shove with his 99 than your AQ. For a straight up raise or reraise, I like having AQ just fine. But in a rereraise all-in situation where my opponent is getting 2:1, I'd rather have the 99, because I think it's more likely to win against the calling range than AQ. As you said in #1, the big advantage is being able to pressure a fold, which is unlikely (but not impossible) here.

I don't see why 99 has to be racing or crushed here. If he gets CALLED, he's almost always racing or crushed, but you could be moving with a weaker hand. You could be restealing with garbage and wind up folding. You could have some weaker pairs and be trying a "takedown with backup" move. I personally wouldn't have figured on a 0% chance to get you to fold. Even getting 2:1 pot odds, it's never going to be 0%. I'd have figured about 10%.

One more thing about the pair being more likely dominated. There are 30 permutations that dominate the pair (6 each of 5 overpairs). There are 24 permutations that dominate the AQ (12 AK's, 3 AA, 6 KK, 3 QQ). So yes, this is true. What's more is that only the 3 AA dominations have AQ in worse than 25% shape. All of the 99 dominations have it in 20% shape. On the other hand, the 99 is 55% versus 32 permutations (16 AK's and 16 AQ's). Maybe it's a wash. Don't have time to crunch the numbers completely.
 
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