What is your instinct in this situation?

[blackyy]

Hello, I was playing the blowout tournament earlier today and I did a mistake and busted on this hand but I want to know what you would have done and thought in this situation.

The tournament: 5.50$ holdem bounty builder tournament. We are deep in the money. I am 250th out of 980 players left and the tournament started with 17k players.

My stack 420k chips worth 70 BB, I am tight loose. I have a VPIP of 22 and a PFR of 17. I have a 12$ bounty on myself.

My opponent: He has 480k chips worth 75-80BB. He is a whale, loose and plays a lot of hands BUT I know that when he bets 3 bigs he has hands on the better side. I have been at the same table as this player for 100 hands. He is loose, agressive and not scared to go allin and his VPIP is arround 50 but even tho he is playing like a whale on the weaker hands, he plays some decent poker when he has good hands, and he retires lots of value out of them. My opponent has a 20$ bounty on him.

I have on the big blind.

My opponent bets 3 bigs utg+2. His position is meaningless considering how he has played all day but the sizing means he has a hand thats better than a6 off and kj off as I have seen him limp those hands. I call the 3 bigs.


The flop comes




I check

My opponent bets 8bbs

I reraise to 18 bbs, he flat calls.


The turn comes



I check

My opponent shoves.

What is your thought, what is your play?

I have about 350k chips left and the pot is 250k.

 

[Dhendrixon]

The question is what do you beat? He limps A6 so you beat AJ, A9, A8 and A7 and and would limp and 10x hand beside A10 which you lose to and pocket 10's. Lose to A8 and 88 on turn.

Combinatorics:
Hands you lose to: 13 combos -possibly 16 with 88
Adkd
AdKc
AdKs
AdKh
Ad10c
Ad10d
Ad10h
10c10d
10d10h
10c10h

Ad8c
Ad8s
Ad8h
8h8c (unlikely)
8h8s (unlikely)
8s8c (unlikely)

Hands you beat: 12
AdJc
AdJs
AdJh
Adjd

Ad9c
Ad9s
Ad9h
Ad9d

Ad7c
Ad7s
Ad7h
Ad7d

So based on this you lose to 13 combos (without the 88) and win to 12 combos. I plugged this into an equity calculator with this range as well, with the turn included and it is about 52/48 favoring villain. With your tournament life on the balance, I think this might be a snug fold and the math verifies it.

 

[CSLysander]

I would have looked and considered what the player was known for playing. You have to know any card with A is powerful and there is another one out there. You know he does not have a pair of As, but you do not know his kicker. If he is willing to shove, then he most likely has a full house or a better kicker. This is what you needed to consider.

 

[blackyy]

The question is what do you beat? He limps A6 so you beat AJ, A9, A8 and A7 and and would limp and 10x hand beside A10 which you lose to and pocket 10's. Lose to A8 and 88 on turn.

Combinatorics:
Hands you lose to: 13 combos -possibly 16 with 88
Adkd
AdKc
AdKs
AdKh
Ad10c
Ad10d
Ad10h
10c10d
10d10h
10c10h

Ad8c
Ad8s
Ad8h
8h8c (unlikely)
8h8s (unlikely)
8s8c (unlikely)

Hands you beat: 12
AdJc
AdJs
AdJh
Adjd

Ad9c
Ad9s
Ad9h
Ad9d

Ad7c
Ad7s
Ad7h
Ad7d

So based on this you lose to 13 combos (without the 88) and win to 12 combos. I plugged this into an equity calculator with this range as well, with the turn included and it is about 52/48 favoring villain. With your tournament life on the balance, I think this might be a snug fold and the math verifies it.

Thats very helpful thank you, thats what I needed to see but there are some things you didnt consider, I think. If he had AT or tt on flop, he would 5bet when I 4bet him. So basically on turn he is saying: I have A8 or 8s, isnt he? A8 he would limp, so its basically 8s or something I beat, which is pretty much why I didnt believe him and got busted.

My other question is why would KK QQ and JJ not be considered as in his range?

Also spoiler alert he had pocket 88s.

 

[Dhendrixon]

Thats very helpful thank you, thats what I needed to see but there are some things you didnt consider, I think. If he had AT or tt on flop, he would 5bet when I 4bet him. So basically on turn he is saying: I have A8 or 8s, isnt he? A8 he would limp, so its basically 8s or something I beat, which is pretty much why I didnt believe him and got busted.

My other question is why would KK QQ and JJ not be considered as in his range?

Also spoiler alert he had pocket 88s.

KK QQ and JJ would be in his pre flop range, however, when he flats a 3bet on the flop I am sure those hands mostly fold vs a competent opponent. Those hands to me are check call at best.

Combinatorics is very helpful in figuring hands out and the more you do it the more you are aware things when in similar situations.

Not sure your position, why didn't you 3 bet him pre flop? Outcome would have been the same if he was willing to call you off though. Thought it was very unlikely he had 88 and he did, but I really didn't play against him and no other notes but what you said. Variance getting the best of you here.

 

[maxmaster10]

difficult decition, but he could have a good hand too ( but it`s a whale), i guess i call, i think he has Q-Q/K-K/ A-J ss/J-J