What would you do and why?

[mrsnake3695]

$20+2 MTT, 176 started, down to the final table, top 10 paid. 8 players left. Blinds 500/1000 going up next hand to 1000/2000. Chip counts range from 20,000 to 43,000. I have 32,000, 3rd in chips and I am under the gun with 8s8c.

The table has been playing pretty tight with the initial raiser winning most of the pots.

My table image: I have been playing fairly tight and betting out my strong hands, I have only shown down 3 hands since we made it to the final table, AA, AK suited and KK, all of which won. I have won twice with uncalled raises however the last time I won (about 5 hands ago) was with KK beating JJ which I bet aggresively.

I raise my pocket 8's to 5000. Everyone folds to the SB who calls. BB folds.

My read on SB: He has been playing a solid game, he will raise with a mediocre hand from late position in an unraised pot but generally plays good hands. He has not slow played beatable hands and has raised his strong hands. He has also shown he can make a big laydown against a large raise.

Flop comes: 2d, 6c, 10d

SB checks

What do you do here?

1) Check to see what comes on the turn
2) Make a feeler/continuation bet of 5000 to 6000
3) Bet the pot about 11,000
4) push all-in

At this point I believe I have the best hand. If SB had a big pocket pair he would have either reraise preflop or bet after the flop. He would have to bet the flop with an over pair because of the 2 diamonds on the board. He can't give me a free card here with an over pair or even a set. He has also not shown a tendency to slow play hands that are suseptable to draw outs. I believe he probably has 2 over cards, AK or AQ or KQ, of course he could also have 2 diamonds but I have no way of knowing that.

So, what do you do?

 

[t1riel]

You have to bet the pot here. It is highly unlikely SB has a higher pocket pair than you do. If SB is chasing the gutshot straight or flush, the pot bet should chase him away. If SB calls, he/she either has a high flush draw or a pair of sixes. If SB raises, he/she probably has a set.

 

[Tammy]

I would say a pot-sized bet to push him out of the hand. You want to give him incorrect odds to chase the flush (if he indeed holds diamonds), or to chase his overcards. Your 8's are very vulnerable at this point, so I say try to take this pot down NOW.

 

[ChuckTs]

1) out of the question
2) don't mind this; good risk vs reward, plus he might draw to overs (you want him too with bad odds) if he thinks you're just putting out a C-bet. If he's got a flush draw then this bet gives him odds though...
3) don't mind this either, but it really discourages action from overs aswell as makes you pretty committed if he's trapping. Discourages action from the flush draw aswell (or at least gives bad pot odds) which is alright I suppose
4) too much risk for too little reward; he could be trapping with a big pocket pair, or a set; just too risky a play.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Ok, here's what happened.

I agree option 1 was out. It gives him a free card to a draw and leaves me open to a bluff on the turn with any over card or diamond.

I didn't like option 2. It's to easy to make a call. He would be getting 3-1 and would probably call and I still would have no idea where I stood.

Option 3 was possible but if I bet the pot 12k I will have invested half my stack and would be pot committed anyway with the blinds coming up next hand. If I bet the pot, he calls and puts me in all in on the turn I would be getting 3 to 1 to call which I pretty much would have to do or I would be the short stack if I folded. Plus if he was on a flush draw and missed on the turn, I would not have enough left to get him to fold the draw on the river.

I felt option 4, push all-in was the only choice. Like I said, I had a strong read that I didn't think he was slow playing a hand better than mine but either had nothing (which he would fold to either the pot bet or the all-in bet), or he was on a draw. I needed to put pressure on him here to try to get him off the flush draw if that's what he had. He might feel 2-1 odds is enough to call with a flush draw, especially since if he was on the draw he most likely had 2 over cards also.

So, I pushed all-in. He hesitated, said "I have a strong hand here" "I guess I'll gamble" and called at the end of his time.

He had Ad Kd. A diamond came on the turn and I was out. Oh well.

His call here was probably correct since he had 15 outs, but obviously he would have called the pot bet too.

I think I would have lost all my money no matter how I played it. Just one of those hands I guess.

 

[Jack Daniels]

His call here was probably correct since he had 15 outs, but obviously he would have called the pot bet too.

And, while slim chances and unlikely, on top of the 15 outs he did have, he also had a backdoor straight and backdoor straight-flush draw to potentially draw to if the turn improve you too. While he couldn't count those extra outs for truly being worth much at all, knowing that you are already drawing to the nuts with a potential to re-draw to more nuts makes it just that much easier (as if it was a tough call for him anyway.)

 

[ChuckTs]

I have to disagree with you just pushing.

It's just too much risk!

Say you lead out for 1/2 pot, or even full pot. You're putting a total of at most 1/2 your stack in the middle throughout the pot, and if he calls or raises your flop bet, you can further analyze where you're at. If you think he's leading you, then obviously fold. You'll still have a minimum of 16K (16BBs at the current level) if you bet the pot, which is still plenty to work with. The all in takes away your options and gives you little info from your opponent's hand, and basically like I said, I think it's just too risky.

Good aggressive move, but by betting the pot or less, you could have survived that to fight another day.

 

[Bombjack]

I'm pretty sure he's about a 52% favourite on this flop, with 2 overcards and flush draw against your pair, so he'd have to call in a cash game. Here, I think it depends if you have him covered or not. If you have the bigger stack, he's less likely to call your all-in on a coinflip. If you have a shorter stack I think you need to play it more carefully, and try not to become too pot committed (easy in hindsight). Also, if you bet less, your all-in on the turn will be for a greater proportion of the pot and give him worse odds for calling. So try option 2.