What should I do here?

[goterps7]

I'm second in chips in a 1 table 1.00 + .20 SnG on Pokerstars when I get this hand...

Almost no reads because it is fairly early in the tournament, but I put the villian on AJ, AQ, 99 or 10 10

what is the right play after flop??

Stacks:
MP2 with 1770
MP3 with 1430
CO with 2770
BTN with 770
SB with 720
BB with 1430
UTG with 990
UTG+1 with 1510
MP1 with 2110

Blinds: 15/30
Site: Pokerstars
Dealt to MP1:8♣ 8♥
Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
UTG calls [30]
UTG+1 raises 60 to 90
Hero calls [90]
6 players fold.
UTG calls [60]
Total folds this street: 6
Potsize: 315
Flop:
5♠ 5♥ 6♣
UTG: checks
UTG+1 bets [330]
Hero ????

 

[KenFischer]

Fold - you have almost nothing invested and you missed your set.

 

[BigStakes101]

Yep easy fold he can have so many hands.

 

[kadafi]

I'd call and see the turn but thats probably just me

 

[KenFischer]

I'd call and see the turn but thats probably just me

No way this can be profitable. You're going to hit your set on the next card only about 1 out of 25 attempts.

24/25 times you do this, you call off 330 chips and win nothing, 1 time you can win some amount up to 1735 (the current pot + the remainder of the other person's stack).

You're losing an average of 247 or more every time you continue past the flop in this situation.

 

[kadafi]

yes but perhaps we dont need to hit the set.

 

[KenFischer]

Fair enough, but there is a limper UTG and the UTG+1 who knowing this, chose to raise.

Even in a best-case scenario where they both hold just 2 overcards, it's highly unlikely that we'll beat both of them more than about 50% of the time.

Still seems like a losing call to me.

 

[SeanyJ]

yes but perhaps we dont need to hit the set.

If you think that your pair is good and your opponent is on missed overcards then the play would be to raise not call to see the next card.

 

[kadafi]

Fair enough, but there is a limper UTG and the UTG+1 who knowing this, chose to raise.

Even in a best-case scenario where they both hold just 2 overcards, it's highly unlikely that we'll beat both of them more than about 50% of the time.

Still seems like a losing call to me.

You make a valid point

 

[KenFischer]

If you think that your pair is good and your opponent is on missed overcards then the play would be to raise not call to see the next card.

I agree that a raise is better than a call here. The problem is that raising at this point pretty much has to be a push, or you're setting yourself up for calling for the remainder of your stack, or making a tough fold and leaving a lot of your chips on the table.

Assuming the read is correct and the 88 is good after the flop, it still has to hold up against one or both potential callers. If we push and lose, we will go from 2nd in chip position to dead last with about 600 chips left. Folding leaves us solidly in 2nd place.

This is the second blind level - even if I was 100% certain that I was ahead now, I can't imagine gambling at this point. There are 90 of our chips invested in this hand - folding still seems to me to be the clear play.

 

[kadafi]

If you think that your pair is good and your opponent is on missed overcards then the play would be to raise not call to see the next card.

I disagree in this case because im guessing were up against over cards and if we push we could be all in and might lose that race.

Id rather flat call and see the turn.

 

[goterps7]

Thanks for all the help guys..

I wound up folding here, for a two reasons:

1. I thought UTG+1 had 2 overcards but i wasn't confident enough
2. There was still someone left to act after me.

After I folded UTG raised all-in and was called by UTG+1

UTG turned over 52o (why he called a pre-flop raise from UTG I don't know)
UTG+1 turned over A J (good read by me)

 

[goterps7]

Also, over betting the pot here kind of scared me, as has been said by others, made a call very unprofitable

 

[zachvac]

(why he called a pre-flop raise from UTG I don't know)

Because of hands like these. He's getting implied odds like crazy if he can get someone to stack off with overcards when he flops trips, and if he misses it's easy to fold. Of course I'm not saying that was his thinking, or that he wouldn't have stacked off with bottom pair, just saying that sometimes calling a preflop raise with complete crap is a winning play if your opponents "know" you have overcards to a flop like this.