What was the right play?

[Mikeloti13]

Live tournament, not much of a prize, around 1k euros for first. 20 players left, im 4th in chips with 54 BB. Hand goes like this.

UTG+1 limps 1000.
HERO middle position raise 4000 with AA.
HJ calls.
CO calls
BTT calls.
UTG+1 calls.
Flop comes
64T rainbow.
UTG+1 checks.
HERO raise 7000.
HJ folds.
CO folds.
BTT re-raise 25000.
UTG+1 folds.
HERO has 43 blinds left, BTT started the hand as a tournament chip leader with almost 200 bb.
HERO thinks for a minute and goes all in.
BTT quickly calls and turns ove pocket sixes.

Can I find a fold in this situation?
He was a good player, folded 2 pair to my set just a few hands before. I put him on either a set or a J10 type of hand which would attack my range of high cards. Probably would just call considering that in my range I have all top pocket pairs but this was my first live tournament in almost a year and found myself making a couple of rookie mistakes. I think I could have folded as BTT was pretty loose earlier with his calls and could have easily had 64o or 106o or 104s, he called a couple of times with hands like that.

 

[Edu1]

I think when BTN pay 4x and after this type of flop, raises to 25K, is hard to see a bluff or a crazy "value bet", most of the time is a set with a small pair (66,44) so yes, you can make a hero fold and stay with your 43BB against 20 players, still a good stack

 

[300HPGOD]

Two ways of looking at this. First way is that with a SPR of 2 going into the hand on a rainbow board it is hard to fold an overpair. The other way is that when you get many callers to your raise you know there are players set mining. On top of that we know based on what you wrote that villain is a good player. You said he folded two pair to your set which means he is either very weak post flop or he knows how to range you well. If he knows how to range you well then he will have a large part of your range as what you have. Could he play 10x in this manner to try to get you to fold? Maybe but I doubt because he probably will not think you will fold your aces or kings here, especially with 1/4th of your stack already in the middle after the flop bet. I think against players that you deem to be good, you can rule out the fact that they are overvaluing one pair hands and have either a set or have a bluff. There are bluffs here, I am not completely discounting that from a good player but I dont think they show up here enough to get me to call. I hate folding here but I would feel that if I am playing my best there is enough writing on the wall here to fold.

I did write that SPR is low and we put 1/4th of our stack in already so I can see an argument for calling. I like the fold much better though and I will be wrong sometimes when I do fold but I dont think villain is bluffing enough of the time to make this a call. Especially since we can remove the possibility that he is overplaying a one pair hand.

 

[blueskies]

Yeah I am folding. Very high chance the dude hit a set in that spot.

If I have AA and so many ppl see the flop, I am not liking my AA.

 

[Alekxandrovi3]

You did everything right. When I read that he first called a raise with his stack and then played aggressively, he thought he had a set. It was dangerous. You are in a situation where you are out of luck.

 

[fefibecerra]

I defenitely don't see his/her raise as a bluff, so I would've assumed that your opponent has a made hand. Folding AA is always hard, but it seems like the best option.

 

[gryphon3005]

I certainly agree with the other posts so far. I would add that what struck me was the size of his re-raise. I think he was trying to induce a call by making his bet seem to be an over-the-top bluff. That fact alone would necessarily get me to fold but when we add in your estimation he was a good player I think I would be hearing alarm bells and fold.

 

[popstani]

It’s hard to fold aces, but you said that he is a good player, he fold two pairs... etc.. It’s really hard to be a bluff, specially in live tournament, but again if he have two pairs, you still can get him if board pairs, still have two aces in the deck, and if you win that hand you will be chip leader. For me neither all in or fold isn’t wrong, it’s 50:50. It’s all about what do you want, what do you want to accomplish. Do you want to take first place in the tournament, or just want to stick around and make min cash. For me it’s to win, so my thinking is that you did everything right, but in this case it wasn’t be good enough.

 

[eetenor]

Live tournament, not much of a prize, around 1k euros for first. 20 players left, im 4th in chips with 54 BB. Hand goes like this.

UTG+1 limps 1000.
HERO middle position raise 4000 with AA.
HJ calls.
CO calls
BTT calls.
UTG+1 calls.
Flop comes
64T rainbow.
UTG+1 checks.
HERO raise 7000.
HJ folds.
CO folds.
BTT re-raise 25000.
UTG+1 folds.
HERO has 43 blinds left, BTT started the hand as a tournament chip leader with almost 200 bb.
HERO thinks for a minute and goes all in.
BTT quickly calls and turns ove pocket sixes.

Can I find a fold in this situation?
He was a good player, folded 2 pair to my set just a few hands before. I put him on either a set or a J10 type of hand which would attack my range of high cards. Probably would just call considering that in my range I have all top pocket pairs but this was my first live tournament in almost a year and found myself making a couple of rookie mistakes. I think I could have folded as BTT was pretty loose earlier with his calls and could have easily had 64o or 106o or 104s, he called a couple of times with hands like that.

Thank U 4 Posting

We always need data to be able to fold in spots like this. So what data helps us here.

We raise and get called by 4 players 5 to see a flop.
Pot is 21500 + antes?
We bet 1/3 pot 7k into 4 players. Do you feel this would be viewed as strong prior to Villains action?
If yes than can we narrow V's range to better than Tx?

As we saw this villain made a 3x raise thinking they were getting all-in vs you. No other good reason for that action that sizing the board is sooo dry.
So that suggests they saw your action as strong.

The pot after the V raise is 55kish 18k to call we have 46k left.
Does this seem like a raise to get a fold?
Have you seen this V change their raise sizes in a way that indicates their hands?

Can we estimate the reraise as being better than 10x what % of the time?

These are some of the data points that help narrow this V's range.

Hope this helps

 

[1player2]

Live tournament, not much of a prize, around 1k euros for first. 20 players left, im 4th in chips with 54 BB. Hand goes like this.

UTG+1 limps 1000.
HERO middle position raise 4000 with AA.
HJ calls.
CO calls
BTT calls.
UTG+1 calls.
Flop comes
64T rainbow.
UTG+1 checks.
HERO raise 7000.
HJ folds.
CO folds.
BTT re-raise 25000.
UTG+1 folds.
HERO has 43 blinds left, BTT started the hand as a tournament chip leader with almost 200 bb.
HERO thinks for a minute and goes all in.
BTT quickly calls and turns ove pocket sixes.

Can I find a fold in this situation?
He was a good player, folded 2 pair to my set just a few hands before. I put him on either a set or a J10 type of hand which would attack my range of high cards. Probably would just call considering that in my range I have all top pocket pairs but this was my first live tournament in almost a year and found myself making a couple of rookie mistakes. I think I could have folded as BTT was pretty loose earlier with his calls and could have easily had 64o or 106o or 104s, he called a couple of times with hands like that.

Hello,


Live reads are wonderful helpers?

Without any red flags from a live read I'd call %100 percent of the time. You are only losing to sets and have everything else dominated.

 

[fundiver199]

If a 4BB raise gets 4 callers, and this was typical for the game, then you need to go bigger preflop to thin the field and cut down on their implied odds. As played I am 100% stacking it off on that flop. Basically people wanting to fold here are saying, that the chip leader is only raising sets, which is just so completely untrue, its not even funny. For starters it does not even make sense for him to raise a set. With such a low SPR, a dry board and position, he should have just called to invite UTG to join the party and allow Hero a chance to hang himself on the turn. Basically the guy just happened to flop a set in a great situation for him. Its just a cooler, and there is nothing to learn from this or regret other than the preflop sizing.

 

[Jon Poker]

super dry board to be getting raised in this spot - hard for villans to have bluffs here and we still have 43bb behind - if ever were a spot to make the hero fold, this seems like the texture and actions in front for us to do it.