Tuff spot in FTOPS

[Slimtobi]

***** Game number #5151406684 *****
FTOPS Event #1 (35825338), Table 106 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:38:44 ET - 2008/02/06
slimtobi posts small blind [25]
alitricky posts big blind [50]
Seat 4 (darrenelias) has the button.
Seat 1 : LawStudent10 with 1135 chips.
Seat 2 : fridje with 3070 chips.
Seat 3 : Chaos06 with 5375 chips.
Seat 4 : darrenelias with 2785 chips.
Seat 5 : Slimtobi with 2655 chips.
Seat 6 : alitricky with 4035 chips.
Seat 7 : LuckyCards74 with 5700 chips.
Seat 8 : Sandtrap777 with 1500 chips.
Seat 9 : cheesemonster with 745 chips.

** Dealing hole cards **
Dealt to Slimtobi :

LuckyCards74 folds
Sandtrap777 folds
cheesemonster folds
LawStudent10 folds
fridje raises to 160
Chaos06 folds
darrenelias folds
slimtobi raises to 525
alitricky folds
fridje calls [365]
** Dealing Flop ** [Potsize: 1100]

Slimtobi has 15 seconds left to act
Slimtobi checks
fridje bets [280]
slimtobi calls [280]
** Dealing Turn ** [Potsize: 1660]

Slimtobi checks
fridje has 15 seconds left to act
fridje bets [1,850]
Slimtobi has 15 seconds left to act
Slimtobi has requested TIME ???????????????????


What do you guys think my oponent has? What fits to his betting? Is this a complete bluff or a monster? Can I ever call this or is this an insta fold?

 

[tenbob]

QQ/JJ/1010/99/88/A10/K10/67s/98s wow lots.

Just get outta dodge early in this one. Raise pre-flop and c-bet is better than raise and check-call.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'd be folding this - muttering under my breath, but still folding.

The bet size is, of course, completely suspicious: it screams "I know you can't call this". I doubt villain has a strong hand. That said, it sucks but he's right: you've got no hand and no draw, so you just can't call this.

It's a big tournament and blinds are still low, there's no reason to risk your whole stack here. You'll have chances to come back.

 

[Bentheman87]

On the flop I don't think you should have check called. You should have led out with a continuation bet and see what he does. Or possibly check raise him. And it looks to me like he has 88 or 99 and made a small feeler type bet on the flop, then made a value bet on the turn when he realized he had u beat. On the turn don't even think about calling you have absolutely nothing.

 

[Slimtobi]

tenbob: I dont agree with your range here. His betting is weak on flop and overprotective on turn. I dont see him doing this with QQ or JJ looking at the flop bet.
99 88 or 77 doesnt fit too. Why would he shove after I called on the flop? He cant be sure I havent got a ten or an overpair, especially with the turn being a rag.
Dude, thats some sick betting line!

OzExorcist: Thats what I was feeling. Isnt it possible i was holding the best hand and didnt need any draws to call.

Bentheman87: I chose this line for pot controll ( checkraise = All-In) and I hoped for a showdown because I thought I was holding the best Hand

This shit is sick

Any other thoughts?

 

[OzExorcist]

OzExorcist: Thats what I was feeling. Isnt it possible i was holding the best hand and didnt need any draws to call.

Yeah, it's possible - like I said, it's suspicious as hell when they bet exactly the amount you've got left. Trouble is, players know that so sometimes they could be using it as a "I know this looks suspicious, and I reckon it'll make you more likely to call" tactic.

So if they have nothing but air you're a favourite. But if the villain has made ANY kind of hand, you're looking at six outs at best (only four if he's got the club draw), and drawing dead at worst.

If you called this, you're a sick, sick person. Kenny Tran sick. In which case, I'd have to doff my cap to your gamble

 

[Slimtobi]

Ok here is the outcome of the sick hand

Slimtobi has requested TIME
slimtobi calls [1,850] [ all-in ]
fridje shows :

Slimtobi shows :

** Dealing River ** [Potsize: 3511]

fridje shows Ace Jack high
Slimtobi shows a pair of Aces
Slimtobi wins the pot (5,360) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,360 | Rake 0
Board: [Tc 5d 3c 7d Ah]
Seat 2: fridje showed [9d Jd] and lost with Ace Jack high
Seat 5: Slimtobi (small blind) showed [Ad Ks] and won (5,360) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: alitricky (big blind) folded before the Flop


Now I have to confess that i manipulated the HH.
Slimtobi = the guru 11 aka WestmenloAA (Isaac Baron)
Well, I saw Isaacs play and was stunned by the call and wondered if you guys would have made it too. This really shows how sick Isaac is and why he earned more than 1 mio online last year. Respect!

@OzExorcist: You were the only one who considered a call, congrats. Only in my dreams i could make such a kenny tran sick call

 

[OzExorcist]

Now I have to confess that i manipulated the HH.
Slimtobi = the guru 11 aka WestmenloAA (Isaac Baron)
Well, I saw Isaacs play and was stunned by the call and wondered if you guys would have made it too. This really shows how sick Isaac is and why he earned more than 1 mio online last year. Respect!

Aaahhh - this does change the nature of the analysis a bit.

How much was the buy-in for this event? For everyday players, a tournament like this is a big deal: to a pro, however, they're probably only risking a buy-in that they could make back in 20 minutes at the cash game tables.

So if this was actually a pro, I suspect it's more of a "chip up or chip out" move: more mildly nauseating than full-blown sick