TT vs push from nit on rag flop; $3+R sat MTT

[ChuckTs]

$3 rebuy satellite and we're not close enough to the pay spots to mention the stage of the game, really.

I've been very tight but have shown down a couple marginal hands in stealing positions, including K9s that got redrawn out on the river by the same opponent. Otherwise I've shown down AA and KK for two big pots that got AIPF, and not much else at this table.

Villain is 15/4/.7 and the farthest he went out of line was that hand vs K9s. He called PF with position and with a short stack, called a flop bet on a T98 flop, and then called a push on a 2 turn (catching an ace on the river).

How often is this a slowplayed JJ+? How often is it a smaller pair? Set/quads? Oddly played overcards? Do we call? Should I have bet the hand differently? What's the meaning of life? Is Elvis still alive? Why does every toaster have a setting that burns your toast?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) EDIT: w/50 antes

CO (t18064)
Button (t1330)
SB (t60570)
BB (t17050)
UTG (t5837)
UTG+1 (t15722)
MP1 (t29218)
Hero (t24079)
MP3 (t22593)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T

, T

.
3 folds, Hero raises to t2200, 1 fold, CO calls t2200, Button calls t1280 (All-In), 2 folds.

Flop: (t6080) 7

, 4

, 4

(3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets t5000, CO raises to t15814, Hero ...

 

[vanquish]

drunk vanq says, snapcall and expect to see 66 ors omething

 

[Irexes]

He knows he's going to showdown due to the sidepot (may be a factor).

88 and 99 perhaps but I see you behind to JJ+ and 77 a lot here and given that you wouldn't have many redraws I'd let this go a lot based on your read on the guy.

Stacks are deep enough that you don't have to gamble. If his 15k bet put you all in it might be a different story.

(for the record I think this is push or fold for you, if you think you are ahead then you have to psuh to knock out, or get value from any draw he's on)

 

[jaketrevvor]

In this kind of situation I've seen people make this move with any pp figuring you're c-betting AK or the like and the rag flop didn't improve your hand. Given the player though he is less likely than some to be doing this and we also know that he's probably not going to be in here with A4s or something crazy like that (although we can never be certain). I can imagine this move with A7, figuring the flop cannot have hit you any better than him, but again would have been a dubious PF call.

More likely imo is that he's playing AdQd/AdJd figuring you for a c-bet with 2 overcards, and if you turn over a pp he has fd and 1 or 2 overs to fall back on. If he's picked up on you playing tight then this option is particularly likely.

But in the end I agree with Rex, If he's playing the fd you're only a slight fave, and realistically you're only beating 66,88,99 so no reason to gamble - and with the showdown anyway you can curse yourself when you see he was trying to get value out of his 72

 

[Shandy]

I usually call here with the flush draw on the board, if the flush draw isn't there then i think it has to be a fold. Also it kind of depends how the big stacked small blind has been playing, if he has been overly aggro, then i would probably fold as well, as this would make it more likely that the CO was calling with a bigger pair hoping for a squeeze play by the sb.
Also just to note i have seen a lot of people get really antsy when someone bets into a dryish side pot, as a lot still believe that it should be checked down- and get so annoyed when you bet out that they do stupid things with crazy hands in this spot.
Also i don't know if i bet out here, it just seems to make it so much more difficult to play, and i think a check shove, or check call gets more of villians chips in while he is behind than betting out- i can kinda see why you do it- obviously a hand which is behind here will usually have at least 6 outs- but your bet also makes it profitable for villian to bluff at the pot.

 

[ChuckTs]

How I see it:

The last hand with him, I raised K9s, he smooth called, and I bet enough by the turn to stick him in on a T982 board with a flush draw for me. He called down with AQs for very few outs and managed to hit his ace.

The fact that I had been playing so tight and then showed down such a weak hand definitely has an effect on this one. I think he knows I'm very unlikely to be bluffing or betting with a weak hand again in this spot into a somewhat dry sidepot. Especially considering we'll be going to showdown and have to show our hand.

I think he definitely does this with 88-99, but is unlikely to do it with a smaller pair. It's also unlikely he's got 7x because it's just not in his calling range PF. As soon as he called PF I actually immediately put him on a slowplayed big pair and the possibility of another oddly-played AK/AQ. I also thought AK/AQ was unlikely because of our history - he knew I'd raised with trash before, so why would he smoothcall again, giving me the chance to outflop him?

Anyways my right hand has a mind of it's own and this is something I've always had a problem with in MTTs, but I called. He showed KK (and the shortstacked SB showed AA) and I was down to 6k. He limped later on, I shoved my 5k stack in with AQs, and his 99 held. Then I cursed repeatedly for the screwed up key hand.