tricky QQ spot #3

C

CfPoker

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Something of a trend here. This hand also comes from last night, but wasn't responsible for busting me out. I'll do my best to remember it right...

Blinds: 100/200

Dealt to hero on button: QQ

UTG+1 (stack ~10,000) raises to 1000
UTG+2 (stack ~10,000) calls
Couple of folds
MP (stack ~8,000) calls
CO folds
Hero (stack ~15,000): ??
SB (stack ~7,000):
BB (stack ~12,000):

A raise is what's needed here... but what sort of amount and why?
 
mrsnake3695

mrsnake3695

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Well you don't want to go against 3 players here, you will never know where you stand unless you hit a set. There's over 3000 in the pot if you raise a small amount you might get too many callers any decent raise pot commits you. This looks like a shove to me if you don't mind racing against AK. You may again be up against AA or KK held by UTG but if so it's a cooler and not much to do.

Once again you may even get called by a lesser pair or a big ace. And you do have fold equity against anything but AA or KK.

So one of four things most likely happens:

Everyone folds and you take the pot then and there (not a bad result)
You get called by AK and race
You get called by AA or KK and most likely lose
You get called by JJ, 10-10, 99 and most likely win.

No sense fooling around here. If you raise to say 4000 and 1 or 2 players call are you going to fold the flop under any circumstances? If not, just shove.
 
C

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I didn't want to shove here. I've got a decent sized stack and see no reason to risk most of it. But also there's a lot of money in the pot and i've probably got the best hand.

I elected to raise to 3,500. The blinds would probably fold. The original raiser is in a tough spot (unless he has AA or KK in which case he's laughing). The first caller also faces a similar problem as he also has someone to act behind him. At this point I was hoping to see a flop, preferably with only 1 or 2 players, and quite prepared to throw the hand away if an A or K comes on the flop, leaving me with 11,500 left. Is this fair thinking?
 
Jillychemung

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a 3500 raise is really a min bet here considering the pot size and really looks weak. If any of the 5 stacks still to play (3 limpers + blinds) have any A-face I'd expect a shove from them.
 
mrsnake3695

mrsnake3695

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a 3500 raise is really a min bet here considering the pot size and really looks weak. If any of the 5 stacks still to play (3 limpers + blinds) have any A-face I'd expect a shove from them.

This is why I say shove. You have fold equity with a shove that you don't really have iwth a smallish bet. Plus you have about have your chips in the pot, are you really going to fold to a flop bet?

You really don't want A-X hands in the pot and your raise almost invites them in rather than forces them out.

What your really want to be up against is JJ or 10-10, which might call the shove. AK might or might not call and that's a race.

If your up against AA or KK your going to lose all your money anyway. You make your raise preflop and one player pushes, are your going to now fold? Or, if a player with AA or KK smooth calls your raise and the flop comes low cards and he then pushes are you folding your QQ? Probably not. That's why I say go ahead and push now, you don't want alot of suited connectors and such playing or if 3 or 4 stay in someone could hit a low set on you and you'll never know it.
 
C

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But is a shove at this point not uneccesarily risky? Ok, I can't be busted out as I have the biggest stack but I can be hurt a lot if I get called by AA/KK, or even AK if it hits.

Looking back at the 3,500 it was probably a bit weak. The pot did already contain about 3,000 so my raise of 2,500 was into a 4,000 pot. Had I made it 5,000 it would of been pot sized, and made it harder for others to call. However, if they are sat there with AA/KK and shove I'm now compelled to call them. The 3,500 makes it a bit easier to get away from the hand if someone else shoves.

As for folding on the flop... if an A or K comes down and I have a few in the pot then yes, I'm folding. I've still got 11,500 behind.

What happened next...

UTG+1 (stack ~10,000) raises to 1000
UTG+2 (stack ~10,000) calls
Couple of folds
MP (stack ~8,000) calls
CO folds
Hero (stack ~15,000) raises to 3,500
SB (stack ~7,500) calls 3,500 (!?)
BB (stack ~12,000) folds
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 calls 2,500
MP calls 2,500

So yeah, everyone was priced in here, not a good result.

Flop: 2J4 rainbow

SB goes all in for his last 4,000
Hero: ??
 
V

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Did UTG+2 and MP fold to the 4000?

If they both folded, I think you're committed to calling.

If they both went all-in (3 all-ins in front of you), then I think it's a clear fold. AA, KK, and JJ beat us. If the best other hand is QQ you're drawing for a chop. I don't see any three hands going all-in there without one of those three nightmare hands amongst them.

If only one other player goes all-in (2 all-ins in front of you), I still think it's a fold. You're way ahead or way behind, and I think at least 3:1 in favor of way behind. Not good enough to call, IMO.

EDIT: On second thought, you might have to call with two all-ins in front of you. Your 3500 raise really gave you ridiculous pot odds well in excess of 3:1. It's rare, but you might be up against two lower PP's, a J and a weaker PP, or a SB stop-and-go bluff (a poorly thought out one, for sure) and a pocket pair/jack. Who knows? with 4.5:1 odds, it's almost impossible not to come up with enough scenarios to call. You only need to be ahead 20% to call. Pretty sick situation. I hope you weren't faced with that one.
 
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C

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Oops, yeah, the other guys both folded.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Pre flop it's a clear shove. And contrarily to what you say, shoving is the safe play here. Your raise is the dangerous approach.

On the flop I'd would call. Looks like SB feels pot committed and uses his early position to take a shot at the huge pot with what little fold equity he has left. Of course he may have AA, KK or a set and beat you, but I would expect AA or KK to have shoved preflop to isolate you and would much rather expect AJ or a complete bluff here.

I guess what frightens you is the flat call of your raise by SB. My feeling is that he wants to make a move here, knows that if shows preflop you will most likely call, and chooses a stop and go approach by calling and showing any flop hoping you did not connect or have an overpair.
 
F

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Sorry the pre flop shove is poor, a reraise of around 5000-6000 is the right play. Why risk the tourny with a stack of 15,000 blinds at 100/200 to shove and he flips AA KK, I probably wouldnt want a race against AK with my stack so deep. 5000-6000 should narrrow to the inital raiser then see what the flop brings if you get called. Plus you have enough chips left to get away from the hand.
 
C

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Results...

Villian was holding JJ for a highly dubious preflop call. I didn't hit a Q.
 
mrsnake3695

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By not shoving preflop you were going up against 3 players. About as bad a situation as it gets. Someone was bound to hit either an over pair or a set. Like i said before, can you fold to a shove with 3 undercards? of course not.

And of course if you shove and villan calls with JJ, that's exactly what you want to happen.
 
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Bentheman87

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I'd say like 5000 is a good amount, 3500 is too small this is the size of raise you would make against just one player who opened for 1000 against two you have to raise more.
 
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