Top Pair and flush draw, late in tny for all my chips

[sgsemu]

Ok, I have average chip stack here late in a tournament. Blind 600/1200 w/ 75 ante I'm in the cutoff and I call 1200 w/ Q9D making it 6600 in the pot, i think(more detail below).

Flop comes:[6d Qs 8d]

The guy in front of me bets 2400. I call and a guy behind me puts his final chips in.

Next card comes: [2c]

Same guy bets off my final chips - 10211. I have a decision. I have a flush draw and top pair. I'm up against two pair or Q10/QJ (i think he would have raised w/ this hand pre-flop though so I'm pretty confdent I'm looking at two pair or even a semi-bluff). The pot is 23121 (I call and the pot is 33332) and I'm getting a little more than 2-1 (right?) for my top pair and flush draw. Did I make the right call here?




pokerstars Game #14168373902: Tournament #68792775, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2007/12/28 - 23:16:50 (ET)
Table '68792775 146' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: sand900 (42851 in chips)
Seat 3: sgsemu (13886 in chips)
Seat 4: Centsless15 (18411 in chips)
Seat 5: leftaa (2785 in chips)
Seat 6: mrlinc (34152 in chips)
Seat 7: ShipItPlease (24599 in chips)
Seat 8: williambgra (65420 in chips)
Seat 9: SincyKidd (30825 in chips)
sand900: posts the ante 75
sgsemu: posts the ante 75
Centsless15: posts the ante 75
leftaa: posts the ante 75
mrlinc: posts the ante 75
ShipItPlease: posts the ante 75
williambgra: posts the ante 75
SincyKidd: posts the ante 75
leftaa: posts small blind 600
mrlinc: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sgsemu [9d Qd]
mrlinc said, "ouch"
ShipItPlease: folds
williambgra: folds
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "ship you there?"
SincyKidd: calls 1200
sand900: calls 1200
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "nice work staying in the tourney"
sgsemu: calls 1200
ShipItPlease said, "ywa"
ShipItPlease said, "ty"
Centsless15: folds
leftaa: calls 600
mrlinc: checks
*** FLOP *** [6d Qs 8d]
leftaa: checks
mrlinc: checks
SincyKidd: checks
sand900: bets 2400
sgsemu: calls 2400
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "you dont have to do what you said earlier if you dont want to"
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "you know the final table thing"
ShipItPlease said, "na"
leftaa: calls 1510 and is all-in
ShipItPlease said, "i want 2"
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "i wish you did better in that sng"
mrlinc: folds
SincyKidd: folds
*** TURN *** [6d Qs 8d] [2c]
ShipItPlease said, "yea"
sand900: bets 10800
irishakdmks0 [observer] said, "he had a straight DRAW he didnt have a hand yet"
sgsemu: calls 10211 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [6d Qs 8d 2c] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sand900: shows [6c Qh] (two pair, Queens and Sixes)
sgsemu: shows [9d Qd] (a pair of Queens)
sand900 collected 22202 from side pot
leftaa: shows [8h Ad] (a pair of Eights)
mrlinc said, "nh"
ShipItPlease said, "yea"
sand900 collected 11130 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 33332 Main pot 11130. Side pot 22202. | Rake 0
Board [6d Qs 8d 2c Jc]
Seat 2: sand900 showed [6c Qh] and won (33332) with two pair, Queens and Sixes
Seat 3: sgsemu showed [9d Qd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: Centsless15 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: leftaa (small blind) showed [8h Ad] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 6: mrlinc (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: ShipItPlease folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: williambgra folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: SincyKidd folded on the Flop

 

[altruist]

Pot started at 2400:
leftaa added 600
3 callers (including you) of 1200

4200 in the pot to begin with.

sand900 bets 2400.

The pot now contains 6600 chips (you're right), and it costs you 2400 to call.

That's 36%, you have top pair, flush draw, more than sufficient to call.

Now there's already 6600 in the pot, and you've already invested 1275, leaving you with only 12611 chips.

It's very likely you'd have to make another call in the future, leaving you pot comitted.

Here you need to make a choice: "Do I want to commit myself to this hand?"

If the answer is yes, there's little reason to merely call, you might as well push all-in.

If the answer is no, fold while you've only invested 1275 in the hand.

Let's think about what you should do:
1. You only have 12611 chips left if you fold. Top pair, 9 kicker, with a flush draw and two cards remaining is a decent hand.

2. The pot contains more than half your stack! If you win right here, you'll add 6600 to your stack, giving you 19211 chips.

3. You only have about 5-6M left before you are blinded out. You're technically a short stack here. And you're not yet at the final table, so you need to take a chance.

4. He may have a hand weaker than yours. You are not drawing to the nuts, and there are other opponents in the pot who you don't want to outdraw you (e.g. nut diamond draw, or a straight).

It's very likely you'll have to take a risky chance in the future and not get 18000 chips as a result. Might as well take it here.

I'd go all-in.

Seeing the actual results, it probably would've turned out the same way.

By deciding to continue the hand, I believe you made the right call.

That said, if you're going to go all-in anyway, might as well do it early.

You create two chances for yourself to win:
1. You draw to a better hand.
2. Your opponent folds.

That small extra folding equity is the kind of thing you want here with a stack of your size. Additionally, if he didn't have top pair, and a hand like 79 or Q2, you don't want him to outdraw you, you want to take the lead as the table captain and force him to make a hard decision.

From the looks of the guy with Ad 8h, he would've pushed anyway. He would've raised his two pair, you would've pushed all-in, and the guy with A8 would've called.

Now from his perspective now, he has to call an additional 12,000 chips on a 6,600 pot where two players have committed all their chips. What if one of them has a set, or a higher two pair? There's no chance of him outplaying you because you had already committed all your chips to the pot.

You're probably thinking, "so what? he probably would've still called." I'm not going to say whether he would've called or not, we don't know, if I had to guess, he probably would still call. But if you made this move every time you were faced with a similar situation, you will win sometimes. And that's what winning poker is about.

 

[switch0723]

Fold or raise pre flop

Fold or raise flop

Fold turn

When your this deep in the tourny you cant call with q,9 pre flop just because it is suited.

 

[altruist]

Sorry, made a huge calculation mistake here, seems I'm getting absent-minded. Pot started with 2400, adding 600 and 3*1200 is 6600!

Pot started at 2400:
leftaa added 600
3 callers (including you) of 1200
4200 in the pot to begin with.

Should read 6600 to begin with.

I think preferring it when other people are right and not having to disagree with them isn't good for me.

sand900 bets 2400.

The pot now contains 6600 chips (you're right), and it costs you 2400 to call.

That's 36%, you have top pair, flush draw, more than sufficient to call.

The pot actually contained 9000 chips, costing you 2400 to call. This would give you roughly 27% pot odds. (You only need a 27% or better to call.)

Now there's already 6600 in the pot, and you've already invested 1275, leaving you with only 12611 chips.

There's 9000 in the pot.

2. The pot contains more than half your stack! If you win right here, you'll add 6600 to your stack, giving you 19211 chips.

If you won the pot, you'd have 21611 chips. A very nice chip count boost. Definitely not one you should gamble with if you can win it right there.

It's very likely you'll have to take a risky chance in the future and not get 18000 chips as a result. Might as well take it here.

Should read 21000 now.

Now from his perspective now, he has to call an additional 12,000 chips on a 6,600 pot where two players have committed all their chips. What if one of them has a set, or a higher two pair? There's no chance of him outplaying you because you had already committed all your chips to the pot.

He actually has to call 12,000 to win 9,000 chips here. He still has call an over-sized bet, just not as close to 2x.

 

[bw07507]

Its a freeroll, shove the flop and expect to get called with many worse hands.

You definately should not be limping there though, either raise or fold it and with 2 limpers before you I think you should fold it.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Folding Q9 suited preflop is the play.

Since you called, push or fold on the flop.

 

[altruist]

Calling with Q9s in this situation is actually not a bad move. It costs you 1200 to win an implied pot of 5400 chips. That's 4.5:1 on your money.

If you win that hand 1 in 4.5 times, you're breaking even. Q9s has 25% equity against 4 random hands.

However, calling with Q9s when you're a short stack is definitely a mistake. In that scenario, he should have folded.

 

[switch0723]

Calling with Q9s in this situation is actually not a bad move. It costs you 1200 to win an implied pot of 5400 chips. That's 4.5:1 on your money.

If you win that hand 1 in 4.5 times, you're breaking even. Q9s has 25% equity against 4 random hands.

However, calling with Q9s when you're a short stack is definitely a mistake. In that scenario, he should have folded.

indeed but when your this far into a tourny, odds dont matter, its all about survivval and geting chips. So you dont think im getting odds to call, your thinknig im likely to be throwing away 1200 chips which i really need or youll be thinking, i can raise here to take some chips down

 

[altruist]

indeed but when your this far into a tourny, odds dont matter, its all about survivval and geting chips. So you dont think im getting odds to call, your thinknig im likely to be throwing away 1200 chips which i really need or youll be thinking, i can raise here to take some chips down

Sorry, not really sure what you're trying to say there.

Odds always matter. Tournaments merely add mathematical considerations.

Picture this: (8d 9d - board: 6d 7d Td) You just flopped the nut straight flush, and two opponents go all-in (one with Kd Ad), would you call or fold? Say you had 1,000 BB, absolutely no need to risk any of your chips. To call would cost you half your stack.

For this scenario, say you know one opponent had Ad Kd, and that Qd and Jd are still in the deck.

Strictly survival, you would fold. You have 1,000 BB. Why risk half your stack? You're practically guaranteed final table. Unless you have the royal flush, your hand could be outdrawn.

The odds is why one would call here.

Bottom line: Odds always matter. In a tournament, you just need to ask yourself, which odds matter more?

In the original poster's case, the odds of him being eliminated before being dealt a decent hand significantly increase if he simply calls, because of the size of his stack.

If you throw away 1200 chips (e.g. call, then force fold without looking at your hand), and you have 120,000 chips, the odds of you being eliminated from the tournament just increased by 1%, based solely on your chip count.

If you throw away 1200 chips if you have only 4800 chips, the odds of you being eliminated from this tournament increased around 25%, perhaps more/less depending on the blinds and how many rotations you can survive.

(That's the simplified version of survival odds most players estimate. A really advanced calculation could factor in blinds, time before the next level, average hands per level, opponent tendencies, etc.)

 

[Wild Rivers]

This is a great example of why suited connectors with TWO gaps (not to mention one gap) can get you into very difficult situations. Therefore, live to fight another day: fold preflop.

 

[pantin007]

lets forget that he made a bad call preflop
no matter what u did ur money was getting into the pot after that flop
honestly u should have raised all in on the flop with ur top pair and flush draw
since u played the flop passively the all in call on the turn was the correct play in my opponion

 

[altruist]

lets forget that he made a bad call preflop
no matter what u did ur money was getting into the pot after that flop
honestly u should have raised all in on the flop with ur top pair and flush draw
since u played the flop passively the all in call on the turn was the correct play in my opponion

Going to agree with you there, calling all-in with his remaining stack size is probably the right move. Not really going to get a better opportunity, and your opponent may merely be trying to defend his weak queen, or another Q9. I've also seen opponents attempt to semi-bluff a flush draw there, so if the flush missed, you'd win with top pair.

That said, it'd also depend on how much I've studied my opponent and what my read on his hand is.

 

[switch0723]

what i was trying to say about odds not mattering this deep in a tourny is that if your getting lets day 7:1 on your money on a flush draw, but you have to go all in to call, your getting great odds to call, but do you really want to risk your tourny life deep in a tourny approaching final table on a situation where you are the underdog. Therefore although it is the right call mathematically in the long run, in the situation at the time it is better to fold and stay in the tourny and maintain a chance to win rather than put your money in as underdog.

 

[altruist]

what i was trying to say about odds not mattering this deep in a tourny is that if your getting lets day 7:1 on your money on a flush draw, but you have to go all in to call, your getting great odds to call, but do you really want to risk your tourny life deep in a tourny approaching final table on a situation where you are the underdog. Therefore although it is the right call mathematically in the long run, in the situation at the time it is better to fold and stay in the tourny and maintain a chance to win rather than put your money in as underdog.

If I was playing for 1st, and was drawing to the nut flush with two cards remaining, definitely.

If you're playing against me, make sure you don't give me those odds.

I have a question for you. You're 3 positions away from the final table, you have Kd Kc in position, you raise 4 BB and your opponent in the big blind calls. The flop comes 7d 2d 10s, you know your opponent had Ad 4d. You bet the pot. Your opponent pushes all-in. Do you fold?

 

[switch0723]

I have a question for you. You're 3 positions away from the final table, you have Kd Kc in position, you raise 4 BB and your opponent in the big blind calls. The flop comes 7d 2d 10s, you know your opponent had Ad 4d. You bet the pot. Your opponent pushes all-in. Do you fold?

Obviously not, im favourite in the hand and i hold one of his flush outs. If i had the ace 4 and the roles were reversed so the kings pushed all in i would fold.

I dont really understand why your are asking that question, why would anyone fold the kigns there as a favourite

 

[Chevren]

But you are a pretty slight favorite, you are still essentially flipping a coin for your tournament life.

If the flop came 5d 2d 10s would you still take the same line with both hands?

I think what he is getting at is

Bottom line: Odds always matter. In a tournament, you just need to ask yourself, which odds matter more?

You have more to consider than straight pot odds but odds definatly still matter

 

[Cheetah]

When far in a tourney, near or in the money, $EV is what matters, not cEV. This is why it is sometimes correct to fold even when cEV>0 or even when the probability to win is >50%.

In the long run, a skilled player can maximize his or her $EV by minimizing the number of all-ins during a tourney.

And always playing to finish 1st doesn't necessarily maximize $EV.

On the OP:

pre-flop: definite fold

flop: fold or push all-in to maximize FE
However, this flop is one of the best possible for this garbage hand Q9s. Why call pre-flop and fold on a dream flop?

turn: terrible situation because of pre-flop and flop mistakes
There are odds to call in terms of cEV but not so clear in terms of $EV.
The probability to win is <50%.

One can make a case for folding because of these 2 factors. But why put all that money, and then fold on turn? So that's an argument for calling.

The lessons are:

1. Don't play garbage hands, especially with short stacks
2. Don't play drawing hands with short stacks
3. If you violate (1) and (2), either fold or move in on the flop to maximize FE
4. If you violate (1), (2) and (3), anything you do will usually be a problem and hard to decide

 

[keegrepus]

pre-flop: definite fold

flop: fold or push all-in to maximize FE
However, this flop is one of the best possible for this garbage hand Q9s. Why call pre-flop and fold on a dream flop?

The lessons are:

1. Don't play garbage hands, especially with short stacks
2. Don't play drawing hands with short stacks
3. If you violate (1) and (2), either fold or move in on the flop to maximize FE
4. If you violate (1), (2) and (3), anything you do will usually be a problem and hard to decide

Great summation! I want to emphasize that the preflop actions were the mistakes here.

 

[KieranWilson]

I agree with the rest of you guys, the call pre flop was the bad move, what did you really want to hit, i mean you probably hit the best you could top pair and a flush draw, and now your scared to go all in.

You just need to htink preflp what can i realistically hit with this hand to make me happy, the action pre flop was what caused the problem

 

[AlexeiVronsky]

I'd have to say move all in as well, you could take down the hand right there, as well as guaranteeing you'd get paid off if you hit the flush/2 pair. You're 40% to win the whole pot and about 50% to win the side pot, so it's a profitable decision to play for all your chips here, with the fold equity and guarantee of being paid off with your flush if they call the all-in is the better play. If your opponent folds then you're about 80% to win against the all in player. That's assuming the cards being what they were, you could have the best hand already or you could be behind a set which isn't too unreasonable with the limpers, but as it stands those're the odds to win.

 

[r3l3ntl355]

Fold pre-flop.

Raise flop. You have top pair and a better-than-average-kicker with a good flush draw. Added to the fact you're vs. freeroll donks and you'll get called by a helluva lot worse than Q9s.

 

[altruist]

Calling with Q9s in this situation is actually not a bad move. It costs you 1200 to win an implied pot of 5400 chips. That's 4.5:1 on your money.

If you win that hand 1 in 4.5 times, you're breaking even. Q9s has 25% equity against 4 random hands.

However, calling with Q9s when you're a short stack is definitely a mistake. In that scenario, he should have folded.

Sorry guys, just realized I used poor demonstratives/grammar in my post. Especially confusing for those who didn't (want to) read through my lengthy previous posts.

When I say calling with Q9s in this situation, I meant given his position, the amount of people who have called before him, ignoring his short stack. I should have said, "Calling with Q9s normally, in this situation..." -- it's the right move if you have a large stack.

Naturally should never ignore anything in poker, and he does have a short stack (mentioned in a lengthier post). In my last line, "that" refers to the situation he presented. It'd make more sense if I said, "In this scenario, he should have folded."