Top pair bad kicker HU.

B

Bentheman87

Guest
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
Total posts
794
Stacks:
* SB with 1185
* BB with 1335
* UTG with 3085
* UTG+1 with 1625
* MP1 with 1590
* MP2 with 2100
* CO with 1280
* BTN with 1300

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to BB:Q♦ 4♠
Preflop:
* * 4 players fold.
* * CO calls [50]
* * Hero checks
* * 2 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: 125
Flop:
* * Q♥ 7♣ 3♣
* * Hero bets [100]
* * 2 players fold.
* * CO raises to 250

What's our play here? I'll post the results after a few replies.
 
F

Fish

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 5, 2006
Total posts
367
Several courses of action here:
A) call and shove a nonscare card on the turn.
b) call and shove a scare card on the turn (ace, king or club)
c) call & check fold the turn
d) shove now
e) fold

I like (b) 60% followed by (a)30% then (c)10%
If' he's got Q-x, then fine. We Lose.

This assumes he has a relatively open range for his position preflop, and eliminates most top range hands from that range with his preflop limp.
Adjust your answer according to his previous aggression level.

I don't like (d) because he only calls with something that beats us, and folds whatever we are beating.
 
B

boogeyman316

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Feb 6, 2008
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23
A noobies' 2 cents

O.K So I am new to this so dont criticize too much if I over think this or something... :stupido2:

His pre-flop limp from the CO does not tell us much about his possible range. He could have any pocket pair, all connectors, Ax, Kx or Qx; but chances are that he would have raised with AA, KK, QQ and maybe KQ - so that would rule out some of the hands that beat us post flop.

I dont think the flop gave him a 4 flush because in that case he would be better off seeing the turn for cheap instead of getting into a raising battle with you. So, unless he is running a pure bluff, he either has something like QJ, QT or he might have started with 33 and has now made a set.

Now, if he has Qx where the x is bigger than 4 but not 7, then that would leave me with 3 out (odds of about 7-1) while my pot odds are only about 3-1. if he has a set then I am drawing almost dead

All in all, unless the guy is an idiot raising with bottom pair the only thing we can beat is a pure bluff, so unless I have a very strong reason to believe he is lying, I would slunk away from the hand with only a 13th of my stack gone.
I would win them back later of course:D
 
B

boogeyman316

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Feb 6, 2008
Total posts
23
Tried Editing after 30 mins

I think I am just repeating what Fish has already said but I guess spelling it out would help me (and other noobs) understand the situation better. PLEASE correct me and/or advise as you see fit.

His pre-flop limp from the CO does not tell us much about his possible range. He could have any pocket pair, all connectors, Ax, Kx or Qx; but chances are that he would have raised with AA, KK, QQ and maybe KQ - so that would rule out some of the hands that beat us post flop.


Some of his possible holding that have you beat would be QJ and QT or he might have started with 33 and has now made a set. I don't think he would risk 20% of his stack with a holding of X3 that gives him bottom pair but It is also possible that he limped in with something like 8-7 and with only one over card on the board and depending on his perception of your style he might think his middle pair is the best hand. It is also unlikely that he has a 4 flush because in that case he would be better off seeing the turn for cheap instead of getting into a raising battle with you.

Now, if he has Qx where the x is bigger than 4 (but is not 7), then that would leave you with 3 out (odds of about 7-1) while your pot odds are only about 3-1 = FOLD. If he has a set then you need runner runner 4s = FOLD. In case he has 87 you would be a 4-1 favorite = CALL/RAISE. I would rather just call in this situation because its too early in the trny to be rushing into all in situation with dubious holdings.


All in all, unless unless I have a very strong reason to believe he is running some silly bluff, I would just call and see what the turn brings. IF the turn does not somehow improve mmy hand I would not mind a check/fold with 1000+ chips left in my stack.
 
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