Took one on the chin in MTT

[crash7]

!#@$#%&!@

*sigh*

Now with that out of the way...

90 seat MTT
No Limit holdem
21 players left
Sitting 8th

Been playing very solid, seeing 32% flops. Making good reads and strong aggressive plays.

QQ in late position
Early position raise 3xbb and i flat call to safely make sure I'm still good when flop shows no A or K. Dealer also calls.
Flop is rags early position checks, I bet pot and both players fold and i pick up about 9 blinds.

Next hand blinds are 100/200
UTG bets 600
I hold KK and raise to 2000
Short stack behind me moves all in for 2175
SB also moves all in with short stack under 2000
UTG calls.

Flop is rainbow with rags and Q high. UTG checks and I raise 1/2 their remaining stack.

Player calls...... WHAT!?....yeah they call.
Turn is an 8 and they check. I push them in for the remaining chips and they call.

2 short stacks bust out with nothing.
UTG wins the entire pot with pocket 8's after turning a set.

I am crippled with only 1600 left in the 100/200 level blinds. Bust out shortly after from late position with A10. Taking 18th place.

So UTG gets 88 and raises 3xbb. Okay blinds are big and he's in position to make a steal I can respect that move.
Player who has only played 32% of the flops with an aggressive nature and dominating showdown history raises almost 3x the initial bet. Possible hands that have 88 beat here are 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and hands that could be a race situation are AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ, QJ. Its more likely a player like myself in this situation has one of the big pairs or AK here.
Two short stacks call the all in for a 3 way pot. This means the short stacks could have any 2 cards 9 and higher. The chance that 88 was good heads up against me were slim and the chance that they'll be good after the flop are extremely slim. But flying in the face of all stupidity and going against every good natured bone in a human's body the 88 calls off 1/3 their stack. Flop is rags for the most part Q high. The raiser bets 1/2 of 88 remaining stack. WHY on earth at this point would you actually think 88 is still good? And if one thought they were good why not push all in? Why just flat call?

Opening bet was okay with me from the 88. But everything after that was just idiotic. Granted in the long run i encourage this fool to try this 100% of the time because it'll make me rich. Just stings a bit to play solid in a MTT and take one like this in such a late point in the tourney. Went from a promissing final table finish and potential 1st to 18th. Should I have played my hand any differently?

 

[alan1983]

Well if its queen high that doesnt mean he should automatically give you credit for a pair of queens or higher.

He could very likely have assumed that the flop did not help your Ace-x

 

[mrsnake3695]

I knid of agree with Alon here. There was alot of dead money in the pot so he was certainly getting good pot odds to stay in it, it costs him 1500 into a pot of about 6000. More than 3-1 wich is certainly good enough with a med pocket pair. After the flop with what i suspect is only one overcard to his 8s he probably believed there was a good chance he was ahead. It's reasonable for him to believe that you were making a continuation bet without a made hand. Also you said that you bet half his stack but how much was it? What kind of pot odds was he getting?

Also 32% is a very large percentage for seeing flops in an MTT. There is no way you have a big pair or big ace 32% of the time, so it's reasonable for villan to assume you don't have a premium hand that beats 8s with a board only showing 1 overcard. It's important to pay attention to how other preceive our play as well as how others play. You may consider 32% as being "very solid" but playing one third of all hands is very loose. Even if you had good hands every time, the perception is still going to be there that you are loose.

Overall, while you had the best hand preflop and after the flop, I think he made reasonable plays considering all the information available and the pot odds he was getting.

As far as what you could have done differently. The only ohter thing I think you could have done was push the flop but I'm not sure that would have worked since it might have been seen as an attempt to steal the pot with nothing. Overall I think you played iot fine just got unlucky. But like I said, I don't think villan played it bad either.

I would advise look at how many hands you are playing, you may consider tightening up some, with 32% flops seen your playing partners are not going to give you credit for big hands everytime. That could be good as long as you understand that you will lose some fold equity and ability to bluff and will take some bad beats with your big hands like this one.

 

[crash7]

Maybe there is a good chance here for me to really learn something. But I'm going to take some time to try and rationalize the thought processes needed to play 88 in this situation. Please jump in and correct or give advice where needed.

First off hero has villian covered in chips.
Hero also has position on villian.

opening for a bet with 88 is logical from UTG in a late stage of the tourney as one would want to isolate players and put pressure on the blinds as well as gaining information on the relative strength of their opponents hands.

Bet is 600 making the pot 900.
Hero raises to 2000 for a little under 3x the opening bet.
Player A moves all in for an incomplete raise of 175.
Player B moves in as well for 1600.

Pot is now about 6675 and villian needs to call an additional 1575. If they call they can be certain original raiser is going to call the additional 175 and being that it was not a complete raise from playerA the betting will end. So the villian can expect the pot to really be 6850. Villian is getting about 4:1 on their money to make this call.

Now it is important to note that 2 players are all in. There will be no way of stopping them from seeing the river and it is a dead pot. In order to beat them one must have the best hand at the end of the entire deal. Although villian is getting 4:1 on their money and they have good position to make a play at the flop, 2 of their opponents will be incapable of folding. Hero is the only player villian could possibly out play for a side pot. Should they win that side pot and lose the main pot they may be fortunate enough to break even from the whole ordeal. Should they lose the main pot and lose additional chips in a side pot it will be a critical blow to their stack as well as diminishing any chances of going deeper in the tournament.

With that said one must figure the potential of playing 88 in a 4 man pot. When up against 6 other cards and 5 cards being dealt what are the odds that 88 will win with high pair?

88 vs A7, K7, Q7= 39%
88 vs AK, QJ, 910=21%
88 vs A7, AK, QJ= 32%
88 vs AA, 66, KQ= 16%
88 vs 67, 45, 23= 65%

Okay that last scenario would be pretty bogus for one raise and 2 all ins. But it wouldnt be overly shocking for any of the first 3 possible set ups. Regardless the chances that a single pair of 8's will hold to the river against these scenarios isnt exactly comforting. Is 4:1 with 0 chance to bet out two of the opponents the propper odds on their money?

The villian is also sitting in poor position with an inferior chip stack and will likely face a continuation bet with any card over 9 and be put to a very difficult decision.

The best 88 can hope for is to spike a third 8 on the flop. There is a 1/7 chance of that happening. 4:1 odds does not justify 7:1 odds against making a hand. Although the pot odds might make palying 88 here reasonable the implied pot odds don't come close to justifying a call here.

If one or more face card hits the flop and the hero pushes all in villian will have to fold their middle or bottom pair or likely call off their chips threatening their tourney life drawing next to dead.

Hero has represented a very strong hand and by folding the villian can conserve their blinds as well as likely move 2 ranks closer to the payout when the short stacks bust. Should the villian call here they are giving the short stacks chances to triple up in chips giving them both a strong chance of later knocking the villian out short of the payouts.

But, lets just forget about all that and assume they make the call.

Flop is 9, 3, Q rainbow. Very unlikely that the hero is holding a 3. Hands that could have a 9 is maybe 99 or A9 suited although the A9 would be a rather overly aggressive play from this player. AQ or QQ are possible hands hero could be holding. Should hero have AQ villian has 2 outs for a huge 7% draw and should the hero have QQ the villian is drawing almost completely dead needing a runner runner to win. But the villian doesnt have to worry about having the best hand to beat the hero as the hero could still fold. The villian needs to think of their chances that they can in fact bust the two players all in for the main pot.

A desperate play from a short stack could have any face card and a rag. That brings the Q easily into play as well as the 9. It also brings into play hands like J10 or K10. Both of which have strong outs against a pair of 8's. With 4 players to the flop and two overcards to the 8's what are the odds that the other 3 players have managed not to catch a piece of this flop that threatens the 8's? Lets list the possible desperation all in moves for low stacks...
AQ, KQ, QJ, Q10, Q9, QXs, A9, K9, J9, 9Xs (including 98), AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, 99, 33
That alone is more than 17 possible hand combinations worthy of pushing all in from a short stack that all have a pair of 8's beat on the flop. Add to that the additional bets for the side pot that the villian must now call post flop. What is the list of possible hands worthy of raising pre flop and betting the flop?
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, 99, AK, AQ, (maybe KQs)
Really what other hands could a pre flop raise represent knowingly with two short stacks behind them? Certainly not a move one makes with a low pair or medium connectors.

Okay well maybe the villain has a good read and knows that the flop didnt help the hero. Why would the hero bet 1/2 the villain's stack? It's almost an inviting amount like its just asking you to call. It's not trying to push me out but its not keeping me in for free either. Maybe the flop didnt need to help the hero.With two players all in and a dead pot why would the hero open a side pot? If they dont have a hand the short stacks easily could triple up in chips making the side pot bet absolutely idiotic. Usually its an unwritten rule in tournament poker that the opening side pot when a player is all in is a "I got it" bet. Signalling to the other player to get out of the way as the player has a hand that can bust the players at risk. Normally a player should only call or raise this side pot bet if they have a substantial number of outs and the pot odds are correct or if they have a made hand like a set or better.

After the hero bets at 1/2 the villain's remaining stack for 3000 the pot is 9675. The villain is getting 3:1 pot odds. At this point it is more than likely that out of the 4 players 88 is still good. This leaves 88 with 2 outs to draw to a set that could still potentially make a straight for the short stack or not even help against 99, 33, or QQ. The villain is NOT getting good pot odds to call here. In fact the right play was probably to just fold pre flop. The truth is that with the hero holding KK and the short stack hands unknown 88 is around a 7% chance to win. The villain still has 6000 in chips should they fold now which is easily 30 blinds and still alive for the tournament. Should they call and miss they will likely bust out and lose or be forced to fold and have 3000 or just over 10 blinds to work with.

And as for the 32% flop seen being loose that just gives the villain even more reason to fold to the Q or 9 on the flop!

All in all terrible judgement by the 88. Actually analysing this has made me realize even more how foolish the play was. If you feel I have missed a major fact or detail that could turn this around please please teach me so I can improve. But I hope the information I have provided is detailed and factual enough for you to understand why I have to say that the villain's play in this situation is far from justifiable.

 

[alan1983]

crash its a bit early to have as your priority to knock off players.

Besides, if other player should have played 2 move up 2 places, then you shouldnt be betting a side pot, because your priority wouldve been to knock off the other 2.

But imo you were right to bet since as i said youre not even in final table yet.

As for the caller, well once youve raised a pot, and you have 4-1 odds, even if your hand doesnt have those kinds of odds, youre late in a tourney and some dont do too well with a short stack. theyd rather take a chance to have a nice stack now, rather than play crippled.

Odds are a general guide thatll help you in the long run, but in a specific situation in a specific tourney, you cant just play whatever the odds tell you, thats assuming he knew or thought he necessarily had to turn a set.

Anyway, after flop, you talked about "if he thought he had me beat, how did he think hed beat other 2". Thats irrelevant. theyre already allin as i understood, and hes already called them.

In fact if he KNEW they had him beat, or figured theyd have a queen or 9, thats all the more reason to call your side bet.

And your interpretation of your half his stack bet may not necessarily be his. I think its a mistake to say everyone would view what you do the same way you do.

Some people in these situations bet with a weak hand for some reason, or a draw, i see it a lot.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Also in an online tournament, players don't have 5 mins to anylize the hand only a few seconds. Perhaps if he had time to think about it without time pressure he might have made the "correct" decision and folded but he doesn't have that kind of time. Villan saw a pair of 8's saw a reraise by a very loose player (in his mind), saw 2 others all in making a very juicy pot and he was capping the betting.

Then he saw a c-bet again by a loose player and a huge pot. He might have pot committed himself in his mind and decided if no ace hit the board he was going asll the way.

I never said villans decisions or thinking were correct, just that considering all the information available to villan and the time he had to make the decisions in the decisions were reasonable from his perspectve.

Villan may also be more of a gambler than you and take this as an opportunity to get alot of chips and worth the gamble that nobody has a pocket pair bigger than 8s or a queen.

Please remember that in the first scenario you gave the flop was a queen and 2 rags indicating only one overcard to his 8s. But the 9 doesnt chance things that much since most people holding a med pocket pair are worried about seeing aces and kings.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not by any means saying you did anything wrong here, just that not everyone plays by the book or thinks the way you do. Doesn't make them wrong necessarily.

 

[alan1983]

Yes mrsnake got it right i think, it was a bad play in retrospect when you analyse it perhaps, but not an unreasonable one in the situation.

For ex. i just busted out early in a tourney, had JJ, flop comes lower rags, someone bets, i reraise big, and he calls me on a flush draw despite me overbetting and him having no odds for it.

Now in his situation idnt have called, but then again i have 2 live with it and realise i played it ok and nothing else i could do.

(what really sucks about it is i have a side bet with a player who called me all-in with a gutshot straight draw, and he hit a runner runner flush lol). So i know what you feel but oh well....