Token Tournament Situaiton; AA

[royalburrito24]

I find myself on the money bubble of a $6.50 $26 Token Tournament. Final 6, 5th gets $4, 1st-4th gets a token.
I am dealt AA in the big blind and faced with a weird situation.
Do I call this or do I just pass?
full tilt poker Game #5466421045: Tier One $6+$0.50 Sit & Go (41594055), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:07:01 ET - 2008/03/02
Seat 1: KWP12 (3,815)
Seat 4: RYABLUPHEN (3,750)
Seat 5: trace88t (5,040)
Seat 7: DHRTNSTKFKD (6,190)
Seat 8: royalburrito24 (6,005)
Seat 9: Iamjoe96 (2,200)
DHRTNSTKFKD posts the small blind of 250
royalburrito24 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to royalburrito24 [Ad As]
Iamjoe96 raises to 2,200, and is all in
KWP12 folds
RYABLUPHEN folds
trace88t folds
DHRTNSTKFKD raises to 6,190, and is all in
royalburrito24 ??

 

[CrackaNACtion]

Diffently call i mean what else could u want ur going in with the best hand for sure. and as long as u beat dhr ull still win around 800 even calling lams allin

 

[switch0723]

very very interesting situation. On the basis that you are 2nd in chips, i think i would fold since you would have to be all in against the only person who can knock you out of the tourny. If you had been 4th in chips then i would call. But with several short stacks around the table i think i would fold, then instantly regret it of course as i am blinded out

 

[nubstyle]

very funky situation with the one guy who has you covered pushing... Obviously, you have the best hand, and that guy re-shoving makes me think he maybe has KK, QQ, or something along the lines of AKs and doesn't want to see another caller. I'd still throw my $$ in more times than not here, but the fact that the has you covered really makes this an odd set of circumstances.

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

With two in, and that close to the token. I think I wudda folded.

One of em is prolly gonna hit the rail on this hand. Moving you up.

At the very least you wudda had a race. I'm too fat to race.

In cash play, the hand rules. In tournament play, the stack rules.

-

 

[Melkor]

Your aim here is to get into the top 4, and your chip stack makes that a very real possibility. Since the top 4 structure is flat, there is no need to aim for first and therefore no reason to risk your whole stack here.

Iamjoe96 has an M of less than 3 and was about to hit the blinds. His shoving range is pretty wide here, so he is looking the underdog in this spot. I would let the big stack risk his chips and fold here.

 

[Manhattan Jack]

Interesting hand to analyze... If everyone had equal stacks, we can estimate that you'd have approximately a 67% chance of winning a tokem (4 out of 6). But you have a lot of chips. Let's put you at about 75% to win.

The thing about this hand is, you really just have to beat the other big stack. If you just beat the big stack, you probably win the tournament. You'll have the biggest stack at the table and only one player to go. Also, think about the hands that the big stack could have and do this. You dominate virtually every one of those hand and win this showdown about 80-85% of the time.

Also, if I foild here there is a reasonable chance that the small stck wins the hand and I just lost my blind when I had aces.

Anyway, that's my take. You may think that this is a close call, but here's what I think is a pretty good rule of thumb that simplifies alot of analysis in these situation: If it's a close decision, don't fold aces or kings. Don't fold them unless you're abso-freaking-lutely sure.

 

[Manhattan Jack]

Interesting hand to analyze... If everyone had equal stacks, we can estimate that you'd have approximately a 67% chance of winning a tokem (4 out of 6). But you have a lot of chips. Let's put you at about 75% to win.

The thing about this hand is, you really just have to beat the other big stack. If you just beat the big stack, you probably win the tournament. You'll have the biggest stack at the table and only one player to go. Also, think about the hands that the big stack could have and do this. You dominate virtually every one of those hand and win this showdown about 80-85% of the time.

Also, if I foild here there is a reasonable chance that the small stck wins the hand and I just lost my blind when I had aces.

Anyway, that's my take. You may think that this is a close call, but here's what I think is a pretty good rule of thumb that simplifies alot of analysis in these situation: If it's a close decision, don't fold aces or kings. Don't fold them unless you're abso-freaking-lutely sure.

 

[Yumboltking]

i still couldn't give them up, and I'm a nit on the bubble. Like was said b4, the big stack is the only one you really have to beat and he obviously has shown a lack of knowledge of tournament bubble play by reraising short stack all in. I say punish him.

 

[royalburrito24]

i still couldn't give them up, and I'm a nit on the bubble. Like was said b4, the big stack is the only one you really have to beat and he obviously has shown a lack of knowledge of tournament bubble play by reraising short stack all in. I say punish him.

Villain must think his hand is best here, and calling this and losing puts me out of the tournament and away from a token.
Villain is obviously showing a big hand here and doesn't want any more action, but should we give him the action he doesn't want?

 

[heatfan03]

dude...... why would you think about calling this. think about your goal here. to get top 4. if the SS gets knocked out here. you are number 2 in chips with 5 players left. if the SS wins here you are number 1 in chips with 4 players like 2 k less than you in chip. if the big stack and small stack are willing to gamble here they will in the future leaving you an easy ride to victory.

that being said i would still have a hard time folding.

 

[Melkor]

Interesting hand to analyze... If everyone had equal stacks, we can estimate that you'd have approximately a 67% chance of winning a tokem (4 out of 6). But you have a lot of chips. Let's put you at about 75% to win.

The thing about this hand is, you really just have to beat the other big stack. If you just beat the big stack, you probably win the tournament. You'll have the biggest stack at the table and only one player to go. Also, think about the hands that the big stack could have and do this. You dominate virtually every one of those hand and win this showdown about 80-85% of the time.

Also, if I foild here there is a reasonable chance that the small stck wins the hand and I just lost my blind when I had aces.

Anyway, that's my take. You may think that this is a close call, but here's what I think is a pretty good rule of thumb that simplifies alot of analysis in these situation: If it's a close decision, don't fold aces or kings. Don't fold them unless you're abso-freaking-lutely sure.

The thing here is that the player doesn't need to win the tournament, only finish in the top four, there is no need to contest massive pots.

 

[royalburrito24]

The thing here is that the player doesn't need to win the tournament, only finish in the top four, there is no need to contest massive pots.

But I am holding the best pre-flop starting hand in poker!

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

The thing here is that the player doesn't need to win the tournament, only finish in the top four, there is no need to contest massive pots.

Melkor speaks for me.

-

 

[Melkor]

But I am holding the best pre-flop starting hand in poker!

And the percentages say you are more likely to get beaten against one of your opponents with the best starting hand in poker than you are to miss out on one of the top four spots as it stands, and as I outlined in my previous post, the smaller stack is probably weaker than the big stack and will be on his way out. You are in a strong position, the blinds are about to pass through you, all you need to do is hold on.

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

Many players look at this game as a series of challenges. See who's junk is bigger.

It takes years to get rid of this. Part of the problem is that folks born with a need to compete are attracted to this game. Because it does the same thing to our brain win we win, as a woman's correctly applied soft hand does to us.

Truly, we (men) see poker as a sexual extant/release. Thus we see it as a pissing contest. We let our need to win the woman overshadow our common sense. Just like in real life huh?

Over the years it starts to slough off. But it still hasta be battled All the time. Particularly when you are seated with an obnoxious over-better. Even the pros get caught up in this.

This is why a woman has a distinct advantage over men. They don't hata deal on that level. So they don't.

-

 

[royalburrito24]

Okay, I have made people wait long enough to know what actually happened. I tampered with the HH and switched me and the other opponent around. Here is the real HH. I was curious as to what you guys might have done if you were in my opponent's position.
Full Tilt poker game #5466421045: Tier One $6+$0.50 Sit & Go (41594055), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:07:01 ET - 2008/03/02
Seat 1: KWP12 (3,815)
Seat 4: RYABLUPHEN (3,750)
Seat 5: trace88t (5,040)
Seat 7: royalburrito24 (6,190)
Seat 8: DHRTNSTKFKD (6,005)
Seat 9: Iamjoe96 (2,200)
royalburrito24 posts the small blind of 250
DHRTNSTKFKD posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to royalburrito24 [Qc Qh]
Iamjoe96 raises to 2,200, and is all in
KWP12 folds
RYABLUPHEN folds
trace88t folds
royalburrito24 raises to 6,190, and is all in
DHRTNSTKFKD calls 5,505, and is all in
royalburrito24 shows [Qc Qh]
DHRTNSTKFKD shows [Ad As]
Iamjoe96 shows [Qs Jc]
Uncalled bet of 185 returned to royalburrito24
*** FLOP *** [Kc 4c Qd]
*** TURN *** [Kc 4c Qd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [Kc 4c Qd Kd] [3h]
royalburrito24 shows a full house, Queens full of Kings
DHRTNSTKFKD shows two pair, Aces and Kings
royalburrito24 wins the side pot (7,610) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
Iamjoe96 shows two pair, Kings and Queens
royalburrito24 wins the main pot (6,600) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
Iamjoe96 stands up
DHRTNSTKFKD stands up
KWP12 stands up
royalburrito24 stands up
RYABLUPHEN stands up
trace88t stands up

 

[switch0723]

nice win rb, have to say, i like your idea of switching it around, providing a lot more discussion

 

[WVHillbilly]

You (he) really should have folded. The AA hand's tournament equity was greater than their chances of AA holding up against 2 opponents. I would have probably called as well, but folding is +EV here. I must have missed this thread when originally posted.

 

[viking999]

I don't think this changes the decision, but...

The AA doesn't have to hold up against two hands, it only has to hold up against the QQ (bigger stack). Beating the bigger stack but losing to the smaller stack is still a net win of 2000-ish in chips.

Still fold AA. A little smaller, maybe 5000 in chips, and I think it's a call. You usually can't just coast to a token on 5000 here.

 

[donkeykiller]

Your sitting heads up if im reading right on the bubble with AA preflop and this guy throws allin for 2200 yes i call im atleast (98% favortie ther e heads up you would be drun not to yes you may get ran down but thats poker

 

[mikemunter]

call, there are 2 players goin all-in , and you said first 4 will get a token , so still if you lose you wil end 4th and get a token .

 

[blankoblanco]

this thread just shows why satellites are so lucrative. a lot of people really have no idea how to play them

trivially easy fold for the AA. he can fold to the token but if he loses he's screwed. why take even a 20% chance of not getting the token when you're a virtual lock (>95% in my experience playing these) if you just keep folding

 

[eagle jim]

New to the forum and relatively new to poker. I have seen in several posts including this one.....joe has a M of x........what is M?

 

[Jillychemung]

New to the forum and relatively new to poker. I have seen in several posts including this one.....joe has a M of x........what is M?

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/what-m-factor-106780/post-733336.html

This post should explain it. Hope3 I did this right.