SnG bubble decision

rob5775

rob5775

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Ok, we are at the bubble of a sng (3 get paid), and the shortstack just lost almost all his chips. These chips reside with Silus1, who's PT stats are 38/14/1.8 over 70 hands. Silus has been very loose with junk hands and calls down almost anything.

So the shortie pushes, likely ATC, and silus1 calls. I call because of the pot odds and the chance to knock out the short stack. Here's how it goes...

pokerstars GAME #11139177805: TOURNAMENT #56497745, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (100/200) - 2007/07/26 - 01:03:06 (ET)
Table '56497745 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 4: Hitters4life (335 in chips)
Seat 6: zackquack89 (3450 in chips)
Seat 7: Silus1 (7475 in chips)
Seat 9: rob5775 (2240 in chips)
Hitters4life: posts the ante 25
zackquack89: posts the ante 25
Silus1: posts the ante 25
rob5775: posts the ante 25
Silus1: posts small blind 100
rob5775: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to rob5775 [6d 7d]
Hitters4life: raises 110 to 310 and is all-in
zackquack89: folds
Silus1: calls 210
rob5775: calls 110
*** FLOP *** [Ts 9d Qd]
Silus1: bets 800
rob5775: ?????

What do we do here?
 
bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

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Fold. Your 67 is not high enough for the flush. And your str8 draw is most likely beaten. Wait for a better position.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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We have practically no fold equity if we shove and we have nothing but a low flush draw and a gutshot that may not even be good if it hits. Routine fold.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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I take it Silus1 doesn't believe in implicit collusion.

I was going to say call, but then I looked at your stack size and the size of the flop bet. Fold, and hope Silus1 didn't screw things up for the rest of you.
 
dj11

dj11

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I fold for a slightly different reason. And for this same reason I would have avoided getting involved in the first place.

Silus1 has told us with that bet that he will take responsibility for sending shorty to the showers. The draw is playable, but just not that playable.

This doesn't have so much to do with pod or hand odds, more with bubble strategy. I have been folding a lot at the bubble against short stacks cause I don't want to give shorty any added chances to get back into the game.

If you would have folded up front, then even if shorty wins, he only doubles up. With you calling he now might triple up, and have a shot at you next hand.
 
Last edited:
S

shark vs fish

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I don't think you should've even called preflop. Why triple the short stack here when you have a bad hand for showdown as far as shortstack's concerned? If you got K9 or A5 it's better than the 67. Your 67 is playing against short stack, remember. The purpose here is to knock out short stack, and 67 ain't gonna knock him out but more likely triple him up.
 
rob5775

rob5775

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This doesn't have so much to do with pod or hand odds, more with bubble strategy. I have been folding a lot at the bubble against short stacks cause I don't want to give shorty any added chances to get back into the game.

If you would have folded up front, then even if shorty wins, he only doubles up. With you calling he now might triple up, and have a shot at you next hand.

I don't think you should've even called preflop. Why triple the short stack here when you have a bad hand for showdown as far as shortstack's concerned? If you got K9 or A5 it's better than the 67. Your 67 is playing against short stack, remember. The purpose here is to knock out short stack, and 67 ain't gonna knock him out but more likely triple him up.

I don't believe folding preflop is even an option here. I'm getting 9 to 1 odds to call an allin and I cap the betting - there is no action behind me after I call. In this situation I will call with ATC. Remember, if I fold he's getting my BB irregardless. If another 110 chips in shorties stack is scary, then I shouldn't be playing sitngos.

And why is K9 or A5 better than 67s? Because the shorty or SB is likely to hold a K or A and our two cards are probably live? What we are looking at is something that NL pointed out... collusion. Two hands v shorty is more likely to knock shorty out.

I'll post the results soon.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Two hands v shorty is more likely to knock shorty out.

I'll post the results soon.

Obviously you called/shoved then. ;)

The "two hands" thing is all well and good, but it's no reason to commit yourself to this pot (calling commits us, shoving obviously does). Even if the shorty does triple up he only has about half your chips and we're not in a terrible situation, and that's assuming he does triple up which is unlikely seeing as SB is likely to be ahead of him.
 
rob5775

rob5775

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Obviously you called/shoved then. ;)

The "two hands" thing is all well and good, but it's no reason to commit yourself to this pot (calling commits us, shoving obviously does). Even if the shorty does triple up he only has about half your chips and we're not in a terrible situation, and that's assuming he does triple up which is unlikely seeing as SB is likely to be ahead of him.

Chris, your like a clairvoyant on the first sentence.;)

As regards to the "two hands" that was before the flop. I was responding to the last couple posters who thought a pre-flop fold was the best option, which in my opinion isn't even a consideration.

As regards to the flop... yes, our only options are shove/fold - calling never crossed my mind. Villain had bluffed many, many pots and also liked to bet out with mid pair.

And I just realized I started two paragraphs with "as regards" and noticed it is 200am my time, so I will finish this tomorrow.
 
A

alan1983

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Me shoves. Theres always the high probability that shortstack will be eliminated
 
rob5775

rob5775

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As I said previously, calling was not an option... pretty much a shove/fold situation. If I fold I still have just under 10 bb's left. If I shove and lose I risk going out in 4th if the big stack beats my hand but the shorty has the overall winning hand. If the big stack beats myself and shorty, then I'm in third. If I win then I double up and have a pretty good shot at winning based on the play I have seen from the two remaining players.

Up to this point I have not observed Silus1 bet a draw once, so I feel he is betting top pair/ mid pair. The way he has played he may even be bluffing the dry side of the pot. I have as many as 13 outs but more than likely 11 good outs (I took off some outs for the gutshot, as that draw is to the idiot end and I could be drawing to a tie or even dead).

And lets not forget I have next to no fold equity (if I was first to act this would have been a no brainer). So what do I end up doing?....

POKERSTARS GAME #11139177805: TOURNAMENT #56497745, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (100/200) - 2007/07/26 - 01:03:06 (ET)
Table '56497745 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 4: Hitters4life (335 in chips)
Seat 6: zackquack89 (3450 in chips)
Seat 7: Silus1 (7475 in chips)
Seat 9: rob5775 (2240 in chips)
Hitters4life: posts the ante 25
zackquack89: posts the ante 25
Silus1: posts the ante 25
rob5775: posts the ante 25
Silus1: posts small blind 100
rob5775: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to rob5775 [6d 7d]
Hitters4life: raises 110 to 310 and is all-in
zackquack89: folds
Silus1: calls 210
rob5775: calls 110
*** FLOP *** [Ts 9d Qd]
Silus1: bets 800
rob5775: raises 1105 to 1905 and is all-in
Silus1: calls 1105
*** TURN *** [Ts 9d Qd] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 9d Qd Td] [Qs]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Silus1: shows [Th Jh] (a full house, Tens full of Queens)
rob5775: shows [6d 7d] (a flush, Queen high)
Silus1 collected 3810 from side pot
Hitters4life: shows [7c 7h] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
Silus1 collected 1030 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4840 Main pot 1030. Side pot 3810. | Rake 0
Board [Ts 9d Qd Td Qs]
Seat 4: Hitters4life showed [7c 7h] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 6: zackquack89 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Silus1 (small blind) showed [Th Jh] and won (4840) with a full house, Tens full of Queens
Seat 9: rob5775 (big blind) showed [6d 7d] and lost with a flush, Queen high

Not the best call I've had. I knew I was behind by the flop bet and still shoved into a calling station. Honestly I don't like showing great plays I've made for HA, and this definitely deserved some more thought on part before I thought "ERRRRRSHOVE". I was lucky to get some money out of this, and my tendency to shove questionable draws near the bubble or during the money play (final three) is a serious leak I need to address.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Because you have next to no fold equity, you can look at the hand as a simple pot odds problem.

If we assume villain never folds, by shoving you're essentially 'calling' ~1.9k chips to win ~2.8k. Clearly you're not even nearly getting 2:1, so it's a fold. Even if we assume villain folds 10% of the time or something, it's still going to be a fold.
 
rob5775

rob5775

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If we assume villain never folds, by shoving you're essentially 'calling' ~1.9k chips to win ~2.8k. Clearly you're not even nearly getting 2:1, so it's a fold. Even if we assume villain folds 10% of the time or something, it's still going to be a fold.

Correct... I really didn't give any thought to it and shoved. Giving the villain 10% fold ratio is optimistic. I often stick to making good calls/raises/etc early in SnG's based on pot odds/implied odds/and equity.

But lately I have noticed that I get impatient and make "pokergut" decisions near the bubble and during HU. This HH is a clear sign that I'm not playing my best game near the end. That's no good.
 
Z

zxcvbnm123

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dude ez fold. He isnt going to fold and you dont have a made hand. You are only drawing. im guessing you hit but doesn't mean it is right to call or shove. On the bubble, so ez to fold.
 
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