Small 2 pair in multiway pot; $3 rebuy

[ChuckTs]

First hand at the table (I'd just been moved), so no reads. Can we bet this? Maybe just check-call? Can we fold this?


UTG+1 (t4736)
MP1 (t5860)
MP2 (t19815)
MP3 (t13010)
CO (t11395)
Button (t4225)
SB (t5920)
Hero (t8665)
UTG (t15154)

[blinds are 300/600]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

, 4

.
UTG calls t600, 1 fold, MP1 calls t600, MP2 calls t600, MP3 calls t600, CO calls t600, Button calls t600, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t4900) Q

, 3

, J

(8 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t4900) 4

(8 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

River: (t4900) 5

(8 players)
SB checks, Hero ...

 

[hott_estelle]

Are people still playing crazy, or better question, is the rebuy period over yet?

 

[skoldpadda]

I gotta value bet that river. You could get called by J10, a weak Queen, 66-99, A5, etc. 1500-2000 seems reasonable.

 

[ChuckTs]

Are people still playing crazy, or better question, is the rebuy period over yet?

No, it's about 1/2 an hour after the first break. My last table was still a little crazy, but I have no info on this one.

 

[jayneseo]

All-in !!!!???!!!!

 

[tosborn]

I think we have to check/call or fold here. With no reads on 7 villains still in the hand the chances of a tricky villain or rivered higher two pair/straight are fairly good.

With your chipstack even calling a 1/2 pot bet and losing would hurt. I'm leaning towards the check/fold, but, I would probably call any bet less than 1500.

I personally don't like our chances with this many bad guys. If we lose the hand we are only out our blind.

 

[alan1983]

tosborn yeah its a bit weird that noones bet this yet. But with a double flush draw by the turn, i find it unlikely that someone with top pair or 2 pairs wouldnt bet flop nor turn.

Id probably minbet here, but the problem is what do we do if raised...

 

[ChuckTs]

The pot's at 5250; if I lead for ~1500 or 2000 chips and someone sticks us in, we'll probably have to call (we'd be getting 2:1 or better). I kinda wussed out here and checked.

Checks around to doit who bets 2000...

 

[alan1983]

doit? What position was he?

If its button then its an easy call for me. Otherwise id wonder if someone as weak as one pair would check all streets then bet river...Mightve hit straight on river. but id still call.

 

[ChuckTs]

Oops, sorry. Forgot I converted the hand. He's in UTG+2. He waits a little, puts out 2K, and everyone folds to me.

 

[tosborn]

This is one of those mental coinflips for me.

Do you want to gamble?

There can be arguments made to call, fold, or even raise. I don't like the raise here because it is to much of a gamble. I would probably go with my gut as to calling or folding.

Sometimes poker is as much gut feeling as it is skill.

 

[Bombjack]

This is the easiest call ever. I'd probably value bet it out though, for 3000.

 

[tosborn]

Look at the all hands that beat us though:

Any set (Highly unlikely)
Q3, QJ, Q4, Q5, J3, J4, J5, A2, 26, 67

I don't have a problem with the call, but, can we really think that a raise here will force a fold. If villain calls we are more than likely beaten. The only relistic holdings he could play that we beat are QT- and JT- and nearly half of them pair the board.

 

[alan1983]

tosborn i think the 2 hands id be worried about are A2 and 67.

Q3 and J4 and such are pretty unusual hands for a UTG+2 to be in with.

And if he hasnt bet QJ with 2 flush draws, then thats a bit too stupid too.

While i think theres a big chance he has the straight, id call. Were calling 2000 into a 7000 pot, i think its a good call.

 

[Bombjack]

Look at the all hands that beat us though:

Any set (Highly unlikely)
Q3, QJ, Q4, Q5, J3, J4, J5, A2, 26, 67

I don't have a problem with the call, but, can we really think that a raise here will force a fold. If villain calls we are more than likely beaten. The only relistic holdings he could play that we beat are QT- and JT- and nearly half of them pair the board.

Exactly, and pay us off. I'd be folding to a raise, but the hands that you list that beat us are mostly garbage that would be folded pre-flop. I mean, who plays J5?

 

[ChuckTs]

The more I think about it, the more I realize that I'm pretty much way ahead of his range. Even at the time (I was stupidly just thinking 'ok someone's gotta have 67') I knew I had to call. Even though these guys are sitting kinda deep, they should have no reason to limp with Q3 or J4 etc.

But ya, must-call here. The tougher part for me was what to do on the river (lead + call push, lead + fold to push, ch-c or ch-r...)

I call, he shows 67, I lose.

 

[tosborn]

Yeah, you guys are correct the EP guys should not have limped with crap. We should have been ahead of the ranges. The LP villains could have had ATC and they've folded.

The more I think about it a raise would probably have been +EV. Nice Analysis Alan and Bombjack.

I just get so skeptical when a pot goes multi-way like this and do the same thing.

A leak is a leak, and although this probably isn't a big problem. I probably need to see if I need to break out the bandaids.