single table SNG top pair feels like a trap?

[jewboy07]

full tilt poker Game #6761384995: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (51392390), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:45:18 ET - 2008/06/09
Seat 1: SoonerJen (1,535)
Seat 5: yoni49 (2,167)
Seat 6: Rufus Mann (4,903)
Seat 7: TheRealFox007 (1,430)
Seat 8: JewBoy07 (3,465)
Rufus Mann posts the small blind of 30
TheRealFox007 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JewBoy07 [As Jh]
JewBoy07 raises to 180
SoonerJen folds
yoni49 folds
Rufus Mann calls 150
TheRealFox007 folds
*** FLOP *** [Ad 8d 4s]
Rufus Mann checks
JewBoy07 bets 210
Rufus Mann calls 210
*** TURN *** [Ad 8d 4s] 9♠
Rufus Mann checks
JewBoy07 bets 620
Rufus Mann has 15 seconds left to act
Rufus Mann calls 620
*** RIVER *** [Ad 8d 4s 9s] 9♥
Rufus Mann has 15 seconds left to act
Rufus Mann bets 2,580
jewboy07 ???? (my stack was 2400)


now what did i get myself into here?
should i be calling this?

also should the flop bet be larger?

fwiw no real reads on player...only hand ive shown down was aces and me and opponent got the money in pre-flop

 

[Dwilius]

Well reads would be nice. Doubt this is how better kicker plays the hand, some players this is standard busted flush move when board pairs. There is the pause on the turn to consider, whats he thinking about? "should i continue with flushdraw for 600", "should i just call aces up". Against some players, easy call, and some others, easy fold.

 

[Steveg1976]

ugly, he played it like a monster, but what monster could he have? In this spot I think reads would be crucial to a call because he is really putting the screws to you with that bet. I think folding here is probably the most prudent, you have enough chips that it isn't going to kill your chances to win and make a note to watch his play in the future.

 

[jewboy07]

as i said it felt like a set where he thought the river was his last chance to get a bet in just in case i checked behind

does the board pairing make this an easier call as it counterfeits A4 and A8?

 

[Dwilius]

Yeah sets a possiblitity. Your turn bet convinces him you have Ace and he doesn't have to fear flushdraw. What did he have vs Aces allin?

 

[Steveg1976]

with only top pair in this case I think that bet is just too big to be calling in this spot for your tournament life. The board pairing only make A4 and A8 less likely to shove as you said they are now counterfeited.

 

[dsvw56]

Given that you're up against the one player that can bust you and this is such a WA/WB situation your best play is probably to check the turn back and call a reasonable river bet. As played, you have to fold without a strong read.

 

[OzExorcist]

I play a lot at this level and you'll see all sorts of screwy nonsense in spots like this. According to sharkscope, villain is about standard for this level (ie: -41% ROI over a 80-odd game sample size)

That said, this looks like the standard line for a set and I think we have to fold. The important consideration for me is that we'll still be second in chips with relatively low blinds, and will have plenty of chances to win our money back.

 

[robwhufc]

That said, this looks like the standard line for a set and I think we have to fold. The important consideration for me is that we'll still be second in chips with relatively low blinds, and will have plenty of chances to win our money back.

It also looks like the standard line for a busted flush draw. I've got to wonder whether a flopped set (now a full house) would play this a bit cuter. A bet of 800 or 900 into a 2,020 pot wants a call. A bet of 2,580 doesn't IMO.

Plenty of time to get back into it if you want to fold, but gut instinct would make me call.

 

[jewboy07]

It also looks like the standard line for a busted flush draw. I've got to wonder whether a flopped set (now a full house) would play this a bit cuter. A bet of 800 or 900 into a 2,020 pot wants a call. A bet of 2,580 doesn't IMO.

yeah this is what did it for me
i decided to call and villain turned over A3 for a weaker Ace

just looking for some feedback on how often this is a set or better against me

thanks for the comments guys!

 

[CfPoker]

A bet of 800 or 900 into a 2,020 pot wants a call. A bet of 2,580 doesn't IMO.

Some players at this level don't really think like this. Some players think "oh, I've got a full house, that's a good hand, i'll bet a lot". So be careful calling these suspiciously large bets. A decent portion of the time they're bluffs, but quite often they're not. You can usually pick up on the type of player who's like this quite easily.

Watching someone bet 1000 into a pot of 200 when they flop a set, then show their set when no-one calls is always amusing

 

[OzExorcist]

It also looks like the standard line for a busted flush draw. I've got to wonder whether a flopped set (now a full house) would play this a bit cuter. A bet of 800 or 900 into a 2,020 pot wants a call. A bet of 2,580 doesn't IMO.

Plenty of time to get back into it if you want to fold, but gut instinct would make me call.

Against a standard / somewhat intelligent opponent, I'd agree 100% - a boat makes a bet that's more likely to get called.

Against a player at this level (with stats this bad), however, they'd probably figure to get paid off since we've put money in the pot on every street so far. And TBH, paired boards rarely seem to ring alarm bells for people at this level - I see boats get paid off big regularly.

That said you're right, busted flush draws will sometimes make this play as well. The fact that it was neither means the result on this one falls into the "screwy nonsense" category I guess.

I'm going to sidetrack and do a little math for a moment:

We're getting a bit less than 2:1 on the call, which means villain needs to either be bluffing or hold a worse ace (or some other screwy nonsense) about one time in three for this to be profitable in chipEV terms. I guess we could put the villain on a busted flush draw or a worse ace enough times to justify that.

ChipEV isn't the same as $EV in these games though - on the two times out of three that villain isn't bluffing or holding a worse hand, we walk away with $0. Given that we're still in pretty good shape to go on and cash if we fold here, I think I take the conservative option and fold. Even though I'll probably hate doing it.

 

[jewboy07]

yeah i think perhaps the better play (long term) is to fold and give yourself a better chance later

thanks for the extra input Oz it's much appreciated