To shove, or not to shove?

[OzExorcist]

Below is a hand from this morning's freeroll - it's the initial raise that I'm most interested in working on.

I've been on this table for about six or seven hands, so far it's been pretty active. I tried to limp in with a pair (66) the second hand I played, and folded when the hand turned into a pre-flop shoving contest. Only other hand I've played I made a standard raise with AKo, got one caller, c-bet the QJx flop and folded when I got raised enough to put me all-in. So... my table image when this hand happened is probably pretty weak (assuming anybody's paying attention).

Anywho: this hand. My thinking was, if I open shove I'm either not going to get any action, or I'm putting my whole stack at risk just to win the blinds and a single limp. And I'd really like some action: I'm getting run over at this table and I'm gonna need chips to play back at them.

full tilt poker Game #3649585629: Cardschat.com $350 Freeroll (25991854), Table 78 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:20:28 ET - 2007/09/23
Seat 1: TheCody86 (575)
Seat 2: madonna30 (2,120)
Seat 3: Steel999 (4,775)
Seat 4: crdshk56 (6,660)
Seat 5: ngiga (355)
Seat 6: Saphira II (775)
Seat 7: mightypower (1,635)
Seat 8: OzExorcist (1,070)
Seat 9: Confa (3,540)
Confa posts the small blind of 20
TheCody86 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [Tc Th]
madonna30 calls 40
Confa: ty
Steel999 has 15 seconds left to act
Steel999 calls 40
crdshk56 folds
ngiga folds
Saphira II folds
mightypower folds
OzExorcist raises to 200
Confa folds
TheCody86 raises to 575, and is all in
madonna30 calls 535
Steel999 folds
OzExorcist: ?

 

[oluaris]

I think TheCody and madonna probably has AK or a small PP...
i can't tell which one has which...

you'll be on a coin flip with one and way ahead with the other...

i'd push here...
half hoping to drive madonna out of the pot if she has AK...
half hoping for madonna to call if she has a smaller PP...

post results please...
thanks!

 

[OzExorcist]

Cheers - I'll post the results in a bit. My reads at this stage pretty much matched yours though. The whole table has been pretty loose, A-rag and K-rag were real possibilities in either of their hands too.

What about the initial betting amount: was betting 200 about right, or does anyone think I should have open shoved? Or done something different again?

 

[withawedge]

Raising left you with 12 blinds. If you fold to the re-raise then you will be in a position very shortly were you have to push the chips in. Plus, another fold to a re-raise will probably confirm your weak image

10, 10 probably means coin flip as already stated

Put the chips in and gamble

 

[ellisman7]

Shove. If you trust your read, then you have to shove. As i learned before, trusting your read can be the difference between winning and losing money.

 

[bluffmaster]

cody will be shoving with any XXsuited, here its most likely either A-rag, or KQ/KJ they will be looking rather tasty to him this early on and with his chipstack.

according to your "read" of the table id say madonna is on A10/AJ/AQ/AK, low pair would of been folded here i think.

so conclusion is to shove, and hope to at least beat maddonna to keep you in the running


-- also just been thinking about the possibility of an over pair(in madonnas whole), JJ would of flat called with poss of all in(from you), QQ/KK/AA would of been raised all in to force you off your hand,


either case maddonna will call here no matter what so its down to that read/ and i suppose the board falling around all their outs..

 

[oluaris]

the initial bet of 200 is right... well, at least that's what i would have done...
the table being loose, they probably figure you to have AQ or a suited Ace...
or even a very small PP...

interested to see the results