This is a discussion on Should I bluff in this spot? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=924G6Vxrf
I didnīt bluff, because in my opinion I wasnīt representing any good hand here. The only hand I could have that fix in the way
I didnīt bluff, because in my opinion I wasnīt representing any good hand here. The only hand I could have that fix in the way I played was the QT. So I thought I would get called by a jack or a nine. What do you guys think?
For the river, you should be able to bluff him off with something between 70-100% of a potsize bet there in my opinion. It seems they did a feeler bet of 30% pot with their 9s and your cards could be TT or something along these lines of suited straight drawing cards which did come up as well if they were to think about your bet. Anything less than 50% of the pot I would call your bet on the river.
Your opponent played out the hand in a straight up fashion that clearly said he only had, at best, a pair. His check on the river when viewed with his previous actions was weak play that just didn't come off as an attempt to induce a bluff. I think you were right in hindsight, to see this hand as a lost opportunity to bluff. To pull it off you would need to find the right size bet. I think 2/3rds pot would do the trick.
Often, nut draws call all streets, but fold to a 1/3+ pot bet, and low pair are also often folded. It is necessary to select the size of the bet on the river based on the opponent's stack. Sometimes it's worth taking risks, but before that you need to have a reputation for being a tight player at the table.
When it checks to you in the backseat with T hi, a gutshot and backdoor flush draw - i would semi bluff the flop. When it checks through to you its pretty unlikely villans have Jx here unless one of the blinds do - i would plan to double barrel insignificant turn cards as well - straight cards - and any clubs as they improve our equity. Betting flop also sets up our story to be believable.
Turn is one of those sort of insignificant cards altho it brings in some of the bottom end straight draws - i would double barrel this card as well. Hard for 9x and underpairs to continue on two streets - all A hi floats are probably going to ditch turn as well. I would also note that I would bet the turn large - like 60% pot.
If called on the turn - i would consider shutting down river - its a decent spot for a triple - but when we get called twice its hard for opponents to be drawing since we block alot of those combos with our hand itself - so we are going to be up against alot of Jx, super sticky 9x and possibly QT even tho we do block that combo - i would see KQ being more likely than QT with our blocker in play. KQ floats us with two overs and a gutshot and for the right price can easily do so. They would also play the hand the way our villan did here and plan to x/call OOP to try and pot control to realize their equity.
As played im not too sure we can bluff this river. After we check flop we simply don't have much Jx in our range IP multiway that we don't bet for value and protection on the flop -- so when we call turn and villan checks river -- villan doesn't have much Jx or Kx in their range either - and getting them to fold a hand like 9x or TT is going to be pretty hard on this river simply because our story doesn't make much sense. I hero call villans ALOT in these spots and you would be surprised how often you are good with 2nd and 3rd pair. So again - as played - I dont think we can bluff this. We didnt set it up well enuff to be believable.
Another option to setup turn is to raise the turn - problem is when we check flop in position what the heck are we raising the turn with? Some weird straight combo? A slow played set? Just isnt very many hands that do take this line -- so if you were to do such a thing you are going to have to be ready to BOMB almost all rivers. Possibly overbet the pot. Personally I've never had much luck with spewy plays of this nature so I would recommend the first option which is bet flop in the back seat to setup the bluff on later streets when we miss our draw.
When someone has already entered the pot, you should generally have a better hand to get involved, than if you had raised first in from his position. T8s is a very marginal hand to open from EP, so when EP has already entered the pot, it should be folded from any seat other than BB.
You flopped an OESD with a BDFD, which is pretty much as good as it ever gets with a small suited 1-gapper. When EP miss his C-bet you HAVE to go for a bet here to thin the field, apply pressure and build the pot for the times, you get there later.
As played calling his delayed C-bet is a trivial decision, when he goes this small.
As played I would also give up. I agree with your own assessment, that a J or 9 is mostly going to call here, simply because the pot is still pretty small, so a regular bet is not putting a serious dent in his stack. You could maybe overbet, but in general I just dont like to play draws passively and then try to bluff the river, when I missed.
The key mistake in this hand was not betting the flop. If you are going to make this kind of casual call with a suited connector, then you need to be prepared to follow up on it postflop by using your position to make his life a hell, and especially when you flop a big draw. This is kind of the whole point, why we prefer a hand like T8s over Q4o.
If you bet the flop, bet the turn and jam the river, he is surely going to fold a hand like A9, unless he is a fish. And on a runout like this I would go all the way. The K was a decent bluffing card, because it completed QT, and it apply pressure to JX and 9X. But you need to start telling your story on the flop not on the river.
I think not bluffing the river as played is fine. BUT...in position on the flop, after everyone checks, you could have semi bluffed your OESD and with continued aggression on turn (and river if necessary) possibly folded out his pair of nines by the river.