Should I be calling or folding this?

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soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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full tilt poker Game #5936809961: $2 + $0.25 Rebuy (45085209), Table 3 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:34:16 ET - 2008/04/07
Seat 1: KidHouston (9,942)
Seat 4: The Desslock (4,358)
Seat 5: SevenDeadlySins (35,078)
Seat 6: lubaca (32,557)
Seat 7: ll Kasper ll (83,229)
Seat 8: soccerfreakjj10 (37,071)
Seat 9: frostyshooter (25,364)
(antes of 125)
ll Kasper ll posts the small blind of 500
soccerfreakjj10 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to soccerfreakjj10 [Kd Kh]
frostyshooter folds
KidHouston folds
The Desslock folds
SevenDeadlySins calls 1,000
lubaca calls 1,000
ll Kasper ll folds
soccerfreakjj10 raises to 5,000
SevenDeadlySins calls 4,000
lubaca calls 4,000
*** FLOP *** [4c 6d Td]
soccerfreakjj10 bets 9,000
SevenDeadlySins raises to 29,953, and is all in
lubaca folds
soccerfreakjj10 ?????????

I will post what I did and my analysis behind it. I would like to hear yyour thoughts though
 
wicked

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Instand Call !
On this board i go broke if he had a set :)
 
SeanyJ

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Yeah I would call this instantly unless I had some kind of read on the guy. Of course he could have a set, or he could have AT, a flush draw or complete air.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Call - this could likely be AT-JT/flush draw/set - a range which we crush.
 
robwhufc

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Looks like this is your tournament's critical point - your mindset here should be that you are looking for first place (or at least 1st or 2nd), and not looking to outlast the 6th and 7th place shortstacks. There are lots of hands that you are ahead of here, and a fair few that you are behind, but if you win here you should be looking to take the game down.

Call.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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"Villain is dakota-xx" is a read that would def make me fold here.
 
ItsMe

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At a guess, a pair has made trips or a suited ace has hit the board. Hard one to fold and you still have potential outs. Without reads or knowing whether you are ITm/just OTM it's hard to make the call. Doesn't this become an M calculation? In which case if you were to fold you would have a M of about 10. My gut feeling is that you are way behind and although it's very wimpish you could probably fold here and still progress. Also, the other guy unless he is a complete lunatic must figure from your bets you would probably call so he must have something.

I'm sure you called so what was revealed?
 
soccerfreakjj10

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At a guess, a pair has made trips or a suited ace has hit the board. Hard one to fold and you still have potential outs. Without reads or knowing whether you are ITm/just OTM it's hard to make the call. Doesn't this become an M calculation? In which case if you were to fold you would have a M of about 10. My gut feeling is that you are way behind and although it's very wimpish you could probably fold here and still progress. Also, the other guy unless he is a complete lunatic must figure from your bets you would probably call so he must have something. But there were 14 players left and 12 would make the money. I was in 5th at the time

I'm sure you called so what was revealed?

Whoops forgot reads... I have no read on this player I was newly rebalanced and he hadn't done anything "unusual" or at all noteworthy. I don't think itm/otm should really make a difference here I am playing for first regardless so if I believe i have the best hand i am calling and if I believe I don't I am folding.

I want some of the members logging on later to have a chance to voice their opinions on the hand before I disclose what I did.
 
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Is this really a question? were you really unsure about what to do here? Call every single time then fist pump vigorously when villain flips over cards
 
dj11

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Villain is putting the screws to you. My first reaction is to instacall. If for some reason I over think this, FOLD FOLD FOLD starts screaming as a survival instinct.

As has been said, you are probably ahead here. If villain hit a set would he not slow play for value? If he hit tpgk this bet makes more sense as he would not want to see an overcard, same with a flush draw. The very likely only hand he fears at the moment is an overpair. He is a chip leader and may very likely be trying to bully a few hands when anything hits. He only limped in, and that doesn't suggest pair. He possibly understands first in Vigorish, and figures anyone acting behind him will suffer the consequences.

From that I would call.

Sometimes, I fold here. Survival instinct kicks in, and my figuring leans toward that. But for me, in this situation....I call.
 
robwhufc

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I don't think itm/otm should really make a difference here I am playing for first regardless so if I believe i have the best hand i am calling and if I believe I don't I am folding.

What is your position - i assumed this was final table, but if it's a $2 rebuy maybe there are still a few tables going?
 
Ronaldadio

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If villain hit a set would he not slow play for value?

I would call, btw. However, I feel he is about 50% to be on a set already, and he is worried about the flush draw. The other 50% he is on a draw and sees your bet as a feeler bet.

As I have said I would call, I would not be in the position you are in. I`m out to win the tourny, so I would have pushed all in before he acted after the flop.

The reason I say this is the only reason I can think u bet this much before he pushed all in must have been to see if he would reraise.

I can`t think of another reason you would bet like you did.

I think I`ve confused myself.

You raised preflop, got one caller.

You then raised 9000 post flop - unless u were going to fold to a reraise I can`t see the point in doing this. I would have pushed all in here and if he called with a set so be it !!!

(I still don`t know if I`m making sense:D but I know what I mean.)
 
soccerfreakjj10

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I would call, btw. However, I feel he is about 50% to be on a set already, and he is worried about the flush draw. The other 50% he is on a draw and sees your bet as a feeler bet.

What about top pair - hands like A10 K10 Q10 and J10 seem feasible here.
Or a hand like a middle pocket pair below 10 could put me on overs and want to take the pot here. Seems like there is a lot of hands you are leaving out of your "range"
As I have said I would call, I would not be in the position you are in. I`m out to win the tourny, so I would have pushed all in before he acted after the flop.

I really dislike and wholeheartedly disagree the line you are proposing. Are you really saying on a raggedy flop with as little as 16K in it I should be flat pushing all in for 32 K? That seems like a terribly scared line and you are really only getting called by a hand that beats you or by a donk with top pair.
I can`t think of another reason you would bet like you did

You raised preflop, got one caller.

You then raised 9000 post flop - unless u were going to fold to a reraise I can`t see the point in doing this. I would have pushed all in here and if he called with a set so be it !!!

This isn't suppose to sound flip, but whatever happened to extracting value from a hand? I have no problem with my bet out on the flop. I have a hand the crushes the ranges of both of my opponents. I have to bet out in case of a flush draw or if someone is holding an ace. I will get called by someone holding a 10, possibly a pocket pair lower than 10, or even a passive donk with JJ - and possibly even raised by a hand that I beat, but would fold to a push (FD, TPGK, MPP, etc) So that is the reason you can't think of. VALUE!!!
 
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soccerfreakjj10

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What is your position - i assumed this was final table, but if it's a $2 rebuy maybe there are still a few tables going?

12 make the money, 14 left. but like I said that is not going to influence my decision here because i had 8 bucks invested which is nothing for my bankroll i was actually playing this tournament with a friend to see who could last longer. I don't have to fold for the cash.
 
Jillychemung

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I think that AT, QQ, JJ, 99 and connected Tens are in his range enough for your to call this shove profitably.
 
Ronaldadio

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What about top pair - hands like A10 K10 Q10 and J10 seem feasible here.
Or a hand like a middle pocket pair below 10 could put me on overs and want to take the pot here. Seems like there is a lot of hands you are leaving out of your "range"
The point I`m making here is that in my opinion you are in almost a 50/50 position, no grey area. He either has his set or is on a draw or as you say TPTK.

I really dislike and wholeheartedly disagree the line you are proposing. Are you really saying on a raggedy flop with as little as 16K in it I should be flat pushing all in for 32 K? That seems like a terribly scared line and you are really only getting called by a hand that beats you or by a donk with top pair.

Check out my MTT stats - it shows I have an idea what to do when playing MTT, and yes, from time to time I make the wrong decision.

U have got yourself in a situation where you have bet and he has come over the top. So the pressure is now on you. The pot is already about 25500 when you put your 9000 raise in. It is now about 50000 after his all in and you are getting about 2:1 to call (all very rough because I can`t track the hh very well.)

You still have outs even if he has a set.

So going back to what I said IMO, u r ahead 50% of the time, behind 50% of the time. So call.

This isn't suppose to sound flip, but whatever happened to extracting value from a hand? I have no problem with my bet out on the flop. I have a hand the crushes the ranges of both of my opponents. I have to bet out in case of a flush draw or if someone is holding an ace. I will get called by someone holding a 10, possibly a pocket pair lower than 10, or even a passive donk with JJ - and possibly even raised by a hand that I beat, but would fold to a push (FD, TPGK, MPP, etc) So that is the reason you can't think of. VALUE!!!

Being harsh here, this is the probably the stupidist point you have made!!! You are saying here "What happened to betting for value" How can you be betting for value with a hand u r thinking of folding??? My understanding of betting for value is to put in a bet knowing u r ahead. If that is the case, why have you posted this?
 
soccerfreakjj10

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The point I`m making here is that in my opinion you are in almost a 50/50 position, no grey area. He either has his set or is on a draw or as you say TPTK.

I think I get what you were trying to say - that top pair top kicker is behind so is thus drawing? That makes more sense than him only having a set or a flush draw.
Check out my MTT stats - it shows I have an idea what to do when playing MTT, and yes, from time to time I make the wrong decision.

Your stats are good, mine aren't too bad either :)
U have got yourself in a situation where you have bet and he has come over the top. So the pressure is now on you. The pot is already about 25500 when you put your 9000 raise in. It is now about 50000 after his all in and you are getting about 2:1 to call (all very rough because I can`t track the hh very well.)

You still have outs even if he has a set.

So going back to what I said IMO, u r ahead 50% of the time, behind 50% of the time. So call.

Some of the analysis I used when I made my decision, which was in fact, to call.
Being harsh here, this is the probably the stupidist point you have made!!! You are saying here "What happened to betting for value" How can you be betting for value with a hand u r thinking of folding??? My understanding of betting for value is to put in a bet knowing u r ahead. If that is the case, why have you posted this?

No need to be harsh here this is a friendly forum!

I will however stand up for value betting a hand less than the nuts. It is the same reason you raise 3x before the flop with a hand like AK suited, you don't have the nuts, but you have potential and most likely have dominated other hands that can call you. Do you only raise aces preflop? Because if you follow your line of logic that is what you should do. I am betting for value because I know that I am not bluffing, I have the best hand 95 percent of the time. Poker is a game of incomplete information, and with the information given I have no reason to believe I do not have a hand that crushes my opponents ranges. After he reraises all in, however, I am given more information - the information that this guy did or wants me to believe that he nailed this flop. Here is where I need to re evaluate the hand based on this new information. It appears you are afraid of these situations, but pushing all in to get rid of any thinking, let the cards fall as they may, and to make your opponent do the thinking instead of you is not the right way to proceed. Again, I have to bet out in case of a flush draw, or if someone is holding an ace, or if somebody has an MPP that could hit trips. I will get called by someone holding a 10, a flush draw, possibly a pocket pair lower than 10 - and possibly even raised by a hand that I beat, but would fold to a push. If I push I lose the value of my opponent having all these hands, while still getting stacked if he has a set. Therefore, by pushing I either lose all my money and in an extremely rare case am doubled up, but if I bet the 9K i am extracting value from the hands listed earlier, while still losing my money to the remote possibility of a set. value value value.
 
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soccerfreakjj10

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As has been said, you are probably ahead here. If villain hit a set would he not slow play for value? If he hit tpgk this bet makes more sense as he would not want to see an overcard, same with a flush draw. The very likely only hand he fears at the moment is an overpair. He is a chip leader and may very likely be trying to bully a few hands when anything hits. He only limped in, and that doesn't suggest pair. He possibly understands first in Vigorish, and figures anyone acting behind him will suffer the consequences.

From that I would call.

Extend all those reasons for why I did call, and the 2.5/1 pot odds.

Unfortunately, my opponent turned over a set of 6s, and I was eliminated from the tournament shortly after this.

When I first looked at how the hand developed after i was eliminated, I obviously second-guessed my call because I was eliminated. I thought, his preflop line really gave his hand away, with the limp/call of 5x raise pf. I thought he couldn't have anything else besides a low to middle pocket pair that turned into a set! However I thought of the hand more after and realized that my in tournament analysis was spot on. He could be limp calling with a hand like 99, or a two clubs (or whatever the suit was) for a hand like 45 of clubs, or two high cards with a 10 in them, and a few other obscure possibilities. Thus I agree with everyone, and believe in the long run a call is absolutely correct.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Dunno why you posted the hand - you have the analysis spot on. :)

Only one addendum - our line does not look overly strong to villain here - we've raised a weak MP and LP limper and c-bet a ragged flop. Even if villain is sitting on JTs or something here, he probably thinks it's good.
 
Ronaldadio

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No need to be harsh here this is a friendly forum!

:D

Value betting. It might just be my interpritation of the phrase.

I would not raise with AK to `value bet`. I would raise with this hand to thin the field, so I could get heads up. AK = A high with top kicker, nothing more.

A value bet to me would be sitting in last position with the best hand and betting about 1/5 pot to get a call from someone who has some kind of hand but they have to call.

I`m not saying you are wrong with your interpritation ;)
 
DaveE

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It really looks like an aggressive bubble play.

I call and lose too.
 
aliengenius

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This isn't suppose to sound flip, but whatever happened to extracting value from a hand? I have no problem with my bet out on the flop. I have a hand the crushes the ranges of both of my opponents. I have to bet out in case of a flush draw or if someone is holding an ace. I will get called by someone holding a 10, possibly a pocket pair lower than 10, or even a passive donk with JJ - and possibly even raised by a hand that I beat, but would fold to a push (FD, TPGK, MPP, etc) So that is the reason you can't think of. VALUE!!!

Being harsh here, this is the probably the stupidist point you have made!!! You are saying here "What happened to betting for value" How can you be betting for value with a hand u r thinking of folding??? My understanding of betting for value is to put in a bet knowing u r ahead. If that is the case, why have you posted this?

Being a bit harsh but everything in SF's post that you criticize is dead on correct. Betting too big (shoving) gets worse hands to fold (remember a value bet wants a CALL).

This is starting to tilt me. :rolleyes:
 
Ronaldadio

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Being a bit harsh but everything in SF's post that you criticize is dead on correct. Betting too big (shoving) gets worse hands to fold (remember a value bet wants a CALL).

This is starting to tilt me. :rolleyes:

I don`t know how you are saying is right or wrong here ag, but its simple and you have put it in the above quote.

If this is as stated a value raise, i.e. the best hand, why are we asking should I be calling or folding OP ???
 
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