"Should this be called?" depends on many factors like the math, table image, live reads and so on. However, here is my approach (if my math is wrong, or something, please correct me) to my decision here:
126k stack with blinds 2k-4k + 4k ante makes you currently 31.5 Big Blinds deep, effective stack with an ante in play (126 stack divided by 4 [Big Blind] equals 31.5)
Open raising to 10k (2.5x open raise) with As Ks looks standard to me. Hijack (HJ) shoves 102k (88
tells me you called right? Otherwise, how would you know their cards?) The fact that we cover them helps us (we have more chips than them, so aren't out if we lose), but that is still a massive percentage of our stack at risk if we call. I'd also have my decision altered by other details not shared. For example, are we in the first hand at a new table (more likely to fold and observe playstyles and table images)? Is this an MTT or a cash game (ICM implications if an MTT whereas cash can just reload, so many players call off more in cash games)? What table image/playstyle does the HJ player have (a maniac might have us happily calling with AKs crushing their range, but a super NIT might be ICM suicide for us to call off if they only play AA, KK and AK)? Ultimately, we can determine pot
odds and
equity via a calculator, but our accuracy in the math is only as accurate as the range we assign to the opponent in the Hijack (hand Villain).
Here is roughly the pot size if I'm correct:
2k Small Blind + 4k Big Blind + 4k ante from every player (standard 9 player table including yourself) equals 42,000 plus your chips from the open raise of 2.5 bbs, or 10k chips) chips in the pot, so 42,000 + 10,000 = 52,000 before they shove for 102k [more?] This makes about 154,000 chips in the middle and it costs you 92k [more?] to call (since your 10k open raise is already in the pot, 102k-10k = 92k).
Your equity by
pot odds needs to be roughly at least 0.597 (I'll round up to .60 for simplicity) to justify calling then (92k divided by 154k = about .60). Does As Ks have at least .60 equity (good enough 60+% of the time)?
Maybe it does, or maybe not. Ace-King (suited no less!) is a premium holding, but regardless of pot odds, it also depends on the opponent range. If they opponent ONLY plays AA and ALWAYS folds the rest, than obviously even AK is a fold!
However, let us invent a slightly more realistic range for the Hijack player (if this range is completely "off" what one thinks it actually is for this game with this specific player, then one can just adapt and use that range to calculate).
Using the
free poker calculator Equilab (other free calculators should get the same answer though), let us see how As Ks does against a hypothetical range of 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo (just over 15% of
hands)...
As Ks has 58.81% equity, so we should be inclined to perhaps fold since this isn't 60+% and close to break-even. It is important to note we are assuming this tighter range of 15%-ish hands shoving though. If the opponent will shove here with more hands, then AK is more justifiably a call. If they play even more selective than this range, AK is a more distinct fold. I'd lean towards a fold because they shoved OVER your open raise and most strong players likely wouldn't do this with hands like 22 or JTs we include in this range. Additionally, a thinking HJ player should realize that your UTG opening range is likely stronger than their HJ range.
It is close, but I'd say Fold if had to choose. More important than the one result is the process of how to come up with this answer in analysis post-game, or estimating in real-time during the game. Both get easier with practice
If somehow we knew they held exactly 88 before we decide our play, then replace pocket eights for their hand instead of a range. As Ks vs 8h 8d gives AK only 47.71% equity according to Equilab. This is even worse than before! (This is because the exact holding of 88 was in the upper half of their range we gave).
Feel free to comment a response or even message me with any other questions
Good luck and see you all at the cardschat tables
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