Set Qs vs Scary Board

[ph_il]

full tilt poker Game #5697419449: $1 + $0.25 Sit & Go (43362863), Table 4 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:46:14 ET - 2008/03/19
Seat 1: ClearLeaf (4,550)
Seat 2: marcol56 (12,096)
Seat 3: 1DADDY4 (2,699)
Seat 4: rustedlotus (7,690)
Seat 5: tommie5 (21,585)
Seat 6: Philthy (6,437)
Seat 7: Dr Fu Man (17,045)
Seat 8: cardfanman1 (4,830)
Seat 9: triken56 (5,200)
Philthy posts the small blind of 80
Dr Fu Man posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Philthy [Qs Qd]
cardfanman1 calls 160
triken56 folds
ClearLeaf folds
marcol56 calls 160
1DADDY4 has 15 seconds left to act
1DADDY4 calls 160
rustedlotus folds
tommie5 folds
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy raises to 960
[Is this raise to small?]
Dr Fu Man has 15 seconds left to act
Dr Fu Man calls 800
cardfanman1 folds
marcol56 folds
1DADDY4 calls 800
*** FLOP *** [Tc Kc Qc]
Philthy: ???

 

[ChuckTs]

Pot it and call a shove. Even though it's an overbet you might want to open shove this too.

You're ahead enough to have to get your money in here, but the board is so drawy that you have to play it fast. Bet bet bet!

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Pot it and call a shove. Even though it's an overbet you might want to open shove this too.

You're ahead enough to have to get your money in here, but the board is so drawy that you have to play it fast. Bet bet bet!

^^^^ this. Bet it hard. You' ahead of everything but KK (unlikely from preflop bets) and AJ (quite possible). If someone flopped a straight, it's a cooler, but you still have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to improve to a full house or quads. But you need to make chasers pay a hefty price if they want to remain in this pot.

 

[ph_il]

Nice. Nice.
Im think this is pretty much what everyone is going to say, but I'll wait for a few more responses before I post the results.

 

[Steveg1976]

I think in this case I prefer a pot sized bet rather than a shove. The problem I have with shoving is that there is a possibly made Flush and a straight draw on the board. With a pot sized bet I think you can push the draws out and find out where you stand. A shove from the short stack can mean anything but It may allow you to determine where Fu Man as the chip leader is. If Fu calls then I think you have to take this hand to the finish if he has you beat and only calls so be it, if FU shoves then I think I let the hand go, as a straight or flush has us drawing to 10 outs or less and he easily has you covered. Maybe that is weak play but with such a drawy board what is sticking around that we beat in this spot.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think in this case I prefer a pot sized bet rather than a shove. The problem I have with shoving is that there is a possibly made Flush and a straight draw on the board. With a pot sized bet I think you can push the draws out and find out where you stand. A shove from the short stack can mean anything but It may allow you to determine where Fu Man as the chip leader is. If Fu calls then I think you have to take this hand to the finish if he has you beat and only calls so be it, if FU shoves then I think I let the hand go, as a straight or flush has us drawing to 10 outs or less and he easily has you covered. Maybe that is weak play but with such a drawy board what is sticking around that we beat in this spot.

~5500 left in our stack, ~3000 in the pot. There's no way we're bet-folding this.

There are plenty of worse hands too - Kx, straight draws, flush draws...even if we're behind to a flush or straight we have significantly good equity to make this a very clear spot to get our money in.

 

[Steveg1976]

The problem to me with this hand is that by being out of position he is only going to be called by hand that beat him if he open shoves. Why risk his tournament life in a spot where he is either way ahead of top pair or way behind a flush or Straight? I said in my previous post to bet the pot but maybe a half pot bet in this case is a better option. It saves chips and will accomplish the same thing. If some one has a Straight or Flush your are going to find out about it and chips can be saved if you are beat.

 

[blankoblanco]

steve, betting even half pot and folding to a shove here would be very bad. even if one player has a flush or straight, we're around 35% to win, and getting the right price such that folding if their straight or flush was face up would be wrong. hell, if they EACH have flushes/straights/one flush and one straight, we'll then be getting an amazing price 3way with basically just as much equity as heads up (because either way we're equally dependent on the board pairing)

then consider that against a realistic range of hands that's shoving over a half pot bet, we're at least 50%, getting a huge price. trivially standard bet/call. checking would actually be superior to bet/fold, and checking would be bad. bet/fold is honestly the worst line you could take here.

the only real decision is how much to bet. i'd just bet like 2400 and snapcall a push. it's good for us if the Ac decides they have some semblance of fold equity and goes all-in (although they're probably not going to fold to an openshove anyway, but just in case)

 

[Steveg1976]

If we are 50% to win this hand against two opponents, and getting a little less than 3/1; I thought that optimal tournament strategy was to avoid slight advantages and to exploit big ones "Survival" early on. Or is it that in this case the price we are getting simply overides the fact that we are in a coinflip against two opponents?

 

[ChuckTs]

That's IF we're behind against BOTH opponents. Basically that's the WORSE shape we can be in - most of the time we're ahead here.