Sat bubble play, kinda sorta

[Effexor]

I'm sitting in 18th place, top 21 get paid. This is a satellite MTT. There are 25 people left so 4 people need to bust out for me to cash. The 4 smallest stacks range from 820 to about 2200. Jackaldog has raised easily 50%+ of the hands, stealing blind after blind.

Whats the correct play here with AT. I've been brutally card dead for the past 50 hands, won the blinds with a push with AQ other than that I've been folding.


pokerstars Game #17903741756: Tournament #90369893, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/06/04 - 01:36:02 (ET)
Table '90369893 11' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: watcher911 (5880 in chips)
Seat 2: pepsi265 (13605 in chips)
Seat 3: TURPENTINE (1945 in chips)
Seat 4: RGC1955 (820 in chips)
Seat 5: JACKALDOG (20630 in chips)
Seat 6: duff_00784 (11155 in chips)
Seat 7: dolanski (2184 in chips)
Seat 8: Effexor1 (4525 in chips)
Seat 9: skagitkid (7625 in chips)
watcher911: posts the ante 50
pepsi265: posts the ante 50
TURPENTINE: posts the ante 50
RGC1955: posts the ante 50
JACKALDOG: posts the ante 50
duff_00784: posts the ante 50
dolanski: posts the ante 50
Effexor1: posts the ante 50
skagitkid: posts the ante 50
pepsi265: posts small blind 400
TURPENTINE: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Effexor1 [Td Ah]
RGC1955: folds
JACKALDOG: raises 800 to 1600
duff_00784: folds
dolanski: folds
Effexor1: hates life

 

[Jillychemung]

Fold ATo as your only other option is to shove and you still have 3 players behind although none of them have a stack that would take a risky call but would certainly call w/ AA/KK

 

[dj11]

Fold, let the short stacks panic a few more hands, or an orbit or two before you get antsy.

The agro donk will only see that he finished first if he survives, and if you survive you will finish first as well, so chips stacks only matter here for a few more hands. Your stack is healthy here, and there is no need to press.

 

[wislim]

Absolute fold. The big stack is basically putting the bb all in so he has something b/c the bb has no fe. If you shove he's gonna call just on pot odds and the fact that if he loses he will still be the chip leader. It's a sattelite where everyone gets the same prize. If it was a regular mtt based on your reads then I'd think about if I was ahead of his range. Here though fold imo.

 

[blankoblanco]

fold for reasons stated above. jackal can afford to just call your shove for the hell of it and try to end the thing sooner. hardly matters that he's raised half the hands because you're only like 65% against a random hand (estimation). taking a 35% chance to go out right here is no good. fold equity is key for you at this point, and you don't have much of it here so it's a really bad spot

 

[Effexor]

I honestly didn't think I could fold into the money. Even if only 2 of the 4 short stacks doubled up, I'd have been out of the money. I guess I was wrong based on everyone elses opinions but I'm not sure I wouldn't play the same again.

PokerStars Game #17903741756: Tournament #90369893, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/06/04 - 01:36:02 (ET)
Table '90369893 11' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: watcher911 (5880 in chips)
Seat 2: pepsi265 (13605 in chips)
Seat 3: TURPENTINE (1945 in chips)
Seat 4: RGC1955 (820 in chips)
Seat 5: JACKALDOG (20630 in chips)
Seat 6: duff_00784 (11155 in chips)
Seat 7: dolanski (2184 in chips)
Seat 8: Effexor1 (4525 in chips)
Seat 9: skagitkid (7625 in chips)
watcher911: posts the ante 50
pepsi265: posts the ante 50
TURPENTINE: posts the ante 50
RGC1955: posts the ante 50
JACKALDOG: posts the ante 50
duff_00784: posts the ante 50
dolanski: posts the ante 50
Effexor1: posts the ante 50
skagitkid: posts the ante 50
pepsi265: posts small blind 400
TURPENTINE: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Effexor1 [Td Ah]
RGC1955: folds
JACKALDOG: raises 800 to 1600
duff_00784: folds
dolanski: folds
Effexor1: raises 2875 to 4475 and is all-in
skagitkid: folds
watcher911: folds
pepsi265: folds
TURPENTINE: folds
JACKALDOG: calls 2875
*** FLOP *** [4s Qd 2c]
*** TURN *** [4s Qd 2c] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [4s Qd 2c Kh] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JACKALDOG: shows [7s As] (a pair of Sevens)
Effexor1: shows [Td Ah] (high card Ace)
JACKALDOG collected 10600 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10600 | Rake 0
Board [4s Qd 2c Kh 7h]
Seat 1: watcher911 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pepsi265 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: TURPENTINE (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: RGC1955 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: JACKALDOG showed [7s As] and won (10600) with a pair of Sevens
Seat 6: duff_00784 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: dolanski folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Effexor1 showed [Td Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: skagitkid folded before Flop (didn't bet)