river bet with winning hand

M

Mooronic

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8 table live casino tourney. 3 of about 8 tables left. Blinds are $1,500/$3,000 no antes. My chip stack is about average with about $70,000. I have been playing the good ole TAG strategy. I’m in the bb.

UTG raises 3x bb to $9,000 – new player to the table so no reads, his chip stack is a a little less than twice mine. Middle position calls all-in for $8,500 – again new player to the table so no reads. Folds to me. I look down and see 8 9 os. I have to invest $6,000 (about 1/13 of my stack) to see a pot of $28,000 or about 4.5-1 odds. Crap hand in poor position, call or no?

Well I called and the dream flop of 9 9 9 comes up. I check and raiser bets 10K into the side pot. I put on my best acting skills and gave a disgruntled call – Pot is $48,000 (21K in side pot). Turn is a K, which I didn’t like because he might put me on holding one. I check. He checks behind. River is a J – potentially another scare card for him. This is where I wasn’t sure how to get the most money out of the hand. How would you have approached the final bet to gain the most value out of the hand and why? Would you:

  • Push All-In? I had about 59K left so a push would inflate the pot to $107,000 giving him about 1.8-1 odds to call.
  • Bet around pot size? If I bet say 40K, the pot would inflate to $88,000 giving him about 2.2-1 odds to call.
  • Bet around 1/3 pot size? If I bet say 25K, the pot would inflate to $73,000 giving him almost 3-1 odds to call.
  • Bet a small value bet? If I bet say only 10K, the pot would inflate to $58,000, but giving him almost 6-1 odds to call.
  • Check and hope he bets into it?
I’ll wait for some responses prior to revealing the outcome of the hand.
 
dj11

dj11

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When you called, regardless of your undoubtedly oscar level performance, villain probably knew he was beat. I doubt he would call a ten cent bet at this point, so for sure he doesn't call a shove.

Bet the 10K, which as you say gives him some serious sucker odds, and pray he does something truly stupid like come over the top on you. I doubt he calls, but if you check it down you'd never know.
 
pigpen02

pigpen02

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I would say his raise into a dry pot could be big pair or AK and he checked behind on the turn in hopes you would try to steal on the river. So, I say try to steal on the river and bet 1/3 pot. A value bet would slow him down, not encourage a call or even coming over the top. Dream scenerio would for him to have KK or JJ and just waiting for the kill. As long as you got the dream flop, why not dream bets?
 
vanquish

vanquish

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Bet the size of the pot. There is likely no hand that would call a bet smaller than a pot-sized bet, but there are a few hands that will call a pot-sized bet.
 
J

JazzKid

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I would say his raise into a dry pot could be big pair or AK and he checked behind on the turn in hopes you would try to steal on the river. So, I say try to steal on the river and bet 1/3 pot. A value bet would slow him down, not encourage a call or even coming over the top. Dream scenerio would for him to have KK or JJ and just waiting for the kill. As long as you got the dream flop, why not dream bets?

I completly agree here. I would be hoping that he try to steal and just go for a 1/3 pot bet, maybe playing it off like you don't have anything, but want the pot.

Nontheless, as they say, it's better to win small than to lose big :)
 
S

Shandy

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If he will call a pot sized bet he will call allin (only 19k more)- so i think we can scrap the pot sized bet for starters. A check from villians point of view does polarize your hand between the nuts and a pair < Js, so it really depends on how you read villian- does he seem strong- is he an aggressive player who will try to steal with A,Q/10,8 here, will he bet medium pocket pairs- if yes then i think checking is the best, as any suitable bet by him probably commits him to calling the check raise.
If you think he is a weak player who will even check behind AJ, AK, AA, QQ etc, then i would personally ask him how many chips he has left (if it is not obvious he has you covered) and shove all in.
Betting a small amount gets shoved over the top of very rarely- nits will even just call behind with AA here, so i think in the long run more is made from shoving than the smaller steal looking bet.
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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Below is the range of hands for villain and the actions a reasonable player might take(since we don't have a read on this player):
  • Villains hand
    • Our action ==> Villans likely action
  1. Ax(not AK AJ)
    • check ==> check
    • bet small ==> call
    • bet big ==> fold
    • BEST ACTION: bet small
  2. AA,Kx
    • check ==> bet(for value)
    • bet small ==> raise(for value)
    • bet big ==> call, re-raise
    • BEST ACTION: bet small, bet big
  3. QQ
    • check ==> bet(for value)
    • bet small ==> call(afraid of K)
    • bet big ==> fold(afraid of K)
    • BEST ACTION: check, bet small
  4. AJ
    • check ==> bet(for value)
    • bet small ==> call(afraid of K)
    • bet big ==> fold(afraid of K)
    • BEST ACTION: check, bet small
  5. pair<JJ
    • check ==>check, bet(for value)
    • bet small ==>call
    • bet big ==>fold
    • BEST ACTION: check, bet small
  6. anything else
    • check ==>check, bet-fold(as bluff)
    • bet small ==>fold
    • bet big ==>fold
    • BEST ACTION: check
If you agree with most of villain's likely actions, we can then conclude the following:
  • Big bet gets called/re-raised only by (2), i.e. AA or Kx. If we check or small-bet, villain is going to bet these hands anyway. So there is no benefit from a big bet since we don't get paid for villains lesser hands, and get paid the same for his AA or Kx.
  • If we check, villain may check behind for (1), (5) and (6), but will call a small bet except in (6)
  • VIllain will call small bets for (3) and (4)
Small bet is therefore the best action. It is only bad against trash hands, which is unlikely since he raised from UTG.
 
V

viking999

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My view of this differs from Cheetah's quite a bit.

  1. Ax(not AK AJ)
    • check ==> check
    • bet small ==> fold
    • bet big ==> fold
    • BEST ACTION: doesn't matter
  2. AA,Kx
    • check ==> bet(for value)
    • bet small ==> 60% call, 40% raise
    • bet big ==> 80% call, 20% raise (especially raise AA)
    • BEST ACTION: bet big
  3. QQ
    • check ==> check
    • bet small ==> call(afraid of K)
    • bet big ==> fold(afraid of K)
    • BEST ACTION: bet small
  4. AJ
    • check ==> check
    • bet small ==> call(afraid of K)
    • bet big ==> fold(afraid of K)
    • BEST ACTION: bet small
  5. pair<JJ
    • check ==>check
    • bet small ==>fold
    • bet big ==>fold
    • BEST ACTION: doesn't matter
  6. anything else
    • check ==>check
    • bet small ==>fold
    • bet big ==>fold
    • BEST ACTION: doesn't matter
When I say small bet, I mean 10-15K. I don't think less than top pair is going to call more than that. This is a monster pot that started with a dry side pot, so I think he's going to play it very tight. On the other hand, if he has AA or Kx, he probably can't put you on JJ or better enough of the time to fold. So when I say big bet, I mean all-in for 50K.

Since AA, Kx is at least as likely as QQ, AJ, and we get 50K in the former and only 15K in the latter, I'd go for the all-in.

Edit: I was thinking about how AA and Kx are still good on the turn, but he checked. Seems a bit strange. However, they're unlikely to be drawn out on (AK moreso than KQ), so he could have been slowplaying the turn. So I still think all-in is the best bet.
 
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M

Mooronic

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Well I ended up putting him a medium pocket pair based on UTG raise, the stab at the pot on flop and the slowdown on the turn. I thought that the K and J on the Turn / River would’ve scared him from investing too much more than what was there. There was 21K in the side pot, so I bet half of it.

Turns out I could’ve bet anything. He was holding Jacks and hit his set on the river. My lil’ bet was re-raised all-in. Easy game when you get hands like that :).
 
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