Right odds here?

[arahel_jazz]

Typical LAG donkfest... no read on villans, recently moved to table.


pokerstars Game #16961937051: Tournament #85347829, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/04/24 - 14:00:13 (ET)
Table '85347829 539' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Spf. Klein (1145 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: Blade2000xxx (2175 in chips)
Seat 3: arahel_jazz (7435 in chips)
Seat 4: hornisse11 (2875 in chips)
Seat 5: vadrouille1 (7575 in chips)
Seat 6: bold13 (890 in chips)
Seat 7: Newdy (1295 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: AitorItUp (1415 in chips)
Seat 9: Rosenheima60 (1165 in chips) is sitting out
vadrouille1: posts small blind 100
bold13: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to arahel_jazz [9s Qd]
Newdy: folds
AitorItUp: folds
Rosenheima60: folds
Spf. Klein: folds
Blade2000xxx: calls 200
arahel_jazz: calls 200
hornisse11: folds
vadrouille1: raises 600 to 800
bold13: folds
Blade2000xxx: calls 600
arahel_jazz: calls 600
*** FLOP *** [4c Js Kd]
vadrouille1: bets 600
Blade2000xxx: calls 600
arahel_jazz: ????????????

No flush draw on the board. I have gut-shot. Pot is 3600... I would be getting, what, 6:1 on a call?

 

[widowmaker89]

Fold preflop, Q9 is not a good hand and no, you are not getting odds you should fold. You hit your straight(which is not a for sure winner AQ is in villians range) only about 1 in a 12(11:1 odds).

 

[Dr_Dick]

Agreed...fold preflop. In fact, why are you even limping with Q9o into what you say is a LAG donkfest with no reads?

 

[Bentheman87]

I think a call here is ok based on implied odds. It's a pretty good board and it would be a very concealed straight, and you don't have to worry about making a straight while someone else makes a boat or flush (on the turn at least). You're getting 10:1 implied odds assuming he has a hand strong enough to play for stacks, so that's almost enough to draw to a gutshot. Also a queen might be an out (wouldn't count on this but its possible). Also you have position on them in later betting rounds and your call here ends the action so you don't have to worry about a check raise.

 

[Dr_Dick]

If a 10 hits on that board I doubt you get action...maybe I'm wrong. I don't think the implied odds are all that great.

 

[arahel_jazz]

Agreed...fold preflop. In fact, why are you even limping with Q9o into what you say is a LAG donkfest with no reads?

Exactly because it is a LAG donkfest. Blinds are moving up fast, this is the $10K freeroll qualifier. Q9 is marginal, but playable.

The question wasn't what to do pre-flop. I wouldn't normally play Q9os in most normal tournaments. I'm looking to see if the odds were correct to fold, call, or raise here.

 

[Dr_Dick]

Fair enough...as normally TAG would be more profitable in a LAGfest, but if the blinds are moving up fast I can see it.

I still don't think you have the odds to call, even if you count implied odds. IMO the action is dead with Villain 1. He raised preflop and put out a weak post flop bet. Villain 2 called the weak bet and if you call, Villain 1 is going to have a real tough time firing a second shot unless his hand improves dramatically. If a T hits it will be an action killer.

I guess the only way you get the implied odds here is if you call, the T hits and somehow that card improves Villain 1.

 

[widowmaker89]

You have plenty of chips to not limp/call into a LAGfest, what are you trying to accomplish? Raise if you must but limping with Q9?

Anyway it seems like Villian B at least has something here, I cant imagine you are getting them to put in another 3000 chips however, so no you are not getting correct odds.

Ben: what makes you say he is getting good enough odds here, am I missing something? Assuming either one wants to play for stacks is quite an assumption I would say. And also, no you dont need to worry about a flush or boat if a T comes but you should at least consider someone having AQ here.

 

[soonerdel]

fold pre flop... wait for better hands

 

[The Shrog]

With your call preflop, you still have to fold your hand on the flop. You have a gutshot--that's it. It will not be profitable in the long run to make the call here. Fold.

 

[Bentheman87]

I agree with the others saying fold preflop. After limping though fold to the raise. And why is drawing to the gutshot so bad here? He's getting 6:1 expressed odds and with 4 outs he's 10.75:1 against hitting on the turn and only 5:1 for both the turn and river. And why would a ten be an action killer? It's not like your drawing to a flush or an open ended straight draw, those are pretty obvious when you hit, a ten hitting would give you a completely concealed str8, I really doubt someone with two pair or a set could get away if the turn comes a ten.

Then again you're only getting less than 10:1 implied odds against the other deepstack so it's a borderline decision.

 

[arahel_jazz]

Well, here's what happened.

I folded.

Turn card was a 10. <agony>

Seat 5 bet out and the remaining Seat 2 folded.

Thanks all for the input.