Right on the bubble

7

7letters

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Views on this appreciated.


Card dead, never really got my head above water.
Blinds were catching me up all the way and for the last hour I'd basically
been picking opportunities to push allin in any favourable positions.
Picked up blinds to survive many times. With this blind structure stacks were fairly close.

Anyway, here we are down to 11 players and 10 players reach the final table and a payout.
I was 10th in chips with one player at table 2 lower than me.

Here I can fold and hope that the low stack on the other table
(who I think was on about 2500 chips and was due to pay the BB before I did) loses when he moves allin.
In that case I make the payouts and take my first opportunity to get my chips in at the final table.

Not such a big game, around $100 for 1st place and $9 for 10th.
A $5 buyin- $50 added game - around 60 entrants.

-If I hang on and finish 10th I've made just $3.50 profit.
-This hand below looks a perfectly good opportunity to shove to me.
- On previous plays I don't expect either player to my left to call without a pretty decent hand.
So what do you do?


..would your decision differ if the buyin and payouts were larger?



Seat 1: BigChick (14394.00 in chips)
Seat 2: 7letters (6679.00 in chips)
Seat 5: gman6505 (19604.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Goober49 (30729.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Ivpiter (55229.00 in chips)
Seat 9: dorrthy47 (15604.00 in chips)
BigChick posts ante of $200
7letters posts ante of $200
gman6505 posts ante of $200
Goober49 posts ante of $200
Ivpiter posts ante of $200
dorrthy47 posts ante of $200
gman6505: posts small blind $1,000
Goober49: posts big blind $2,000
Dealt to 7letters [
8.gif
king.gif
]
Ivpiter: folds
dorrthy47: folds
BigChick: folds
7letters: is all in 6479.0000
gman6505: folds
Goober49: calls
***F_L_O_P***[
queen.gif
9.gif
ace.gif
]
*** TURN *** [
jack.gif
]
*** RIVER *** [
queen.gif
]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Goober49 wins $15,158 with Full House, Aces full of Queens
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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You've got to push here, i would 100% of the time. You have K8 which in the balance of probabilities is better than the SB or BB have. There is a hell of a lot of dead money in the pot. The BB is pretty much committed to call with any 2, and if you win you are on 15K and back in the mix. I'd be looking to push any time I could be the first into the pot at this stage - cards wouldn't be an issue.

A small chance at $95 profit is much better value than a good chance at $3 profit.

If buyin and payout were greater, answer would be the same.
 
7

7letters

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Thanks for the reply. I've had other views on this and some suggested I wait it out. My exit from the game actually promoted laughs in the shoutbox :D
I felt I made the right choice though.
 
C

CfPoker

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Yeah, shove. It's always annoying when the big blind wakes up with a hand in this situation though :) Happened to me the other night. My AT busted the big blinds AQ so that made it ok :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Yeah, the only thing that would make this a non-shove play would be if you got more money for 10th place.

Keep in mind, you have to come in 10th place 27 times for each 1 time you finish first. There is a very large benefit playing for 1st place.

The only time I'd play just to make the money is when my stack is significantly smaller than other player's, and its unlikely I'll be able to double up enough to go deep into the $. But like you said, "stacks were fairly close". Thus, you have a good chance to get to the big money.

Oh, and one other thing. Your M is currently 1.5 (at best). You need to realize this and make moves a lot earlier to keep your stack above water. Its a lot easier to steal blinds when you've got more chips in your stack.

/me shoves this every time.
 
nevadanick

nevadanick

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Thanks for the reply. I've had other views on this and some suggested I wait it out. My exit from the game actually promoted laughs in the shoutbox :D
I felt I made the right choice though.

I'm with the 'other views' (I think). Not a choice I would have made.

Your OP says you were only surviving by betting 'all-ins' whenever you could. That indicates you were winning the vast majority of them, if not all. How many times can you flip a coin and expect it to be heads every time, flip after flip after flip ?

Oh, I can hear it all.
I play to WIN
odds in your favor
Short Stack, under xxBB
Dead money
pot odds
It's all about taking risks
and ... That's Poker
(and the list goes on and on.....)

It's a laundry list of losing excuses ... pardon me ... 'reasons'.

I play to win, too, but I'm not obsessed with #1 being THE only position to finish in. ITM is ITM. 'Any' cash back in my wallet is a good thing ... and a 'win' ... :D .

"-If I hang on and finish 10th I've made just $3.50 profit." >> Is there some shame in almost doubling your money in an hour or two ?

"-This hand below looks a perfectly good opportunity to shove to me." >> Chip leader was UTG and folded. SB wasn't going to call anything.

"- On previous plays I don't expect either player to my left to call without a pretty decent hand." >> BB?? No way was he folding. He had 2k in the pot and had you covered 5:1. You asked for a decision from Lady Luck - and got it.

"..would your decision differ if the buyin and payouts were larger?" >> No. Absolutely not. The only time it would be different is if I really didn't care and just wanted to see what would happen. Only THEN would I have pushed.

Sure, there are times and hands that a K,8o will win. But here's my bottom line thinking. We constantly see HH's where someone is complaining about the huge donkey that went all-in with K,8o and cracked their AA, asking "How could he go all-in with THAT?" If CO position is a good place to all-in a K,8o sitting 11th (on the bubble), why isn't it a good place to go all-in on level 1, first hand? I fail to see the difference. If lev 1, hand 1 isn't good enough to bet the farm on K,8o, then the bubble isn't the place either.

Table 2 shortstack was blinding before you, according to your OP, and probably pretty quick since he was at the 5 seat table. I would have at least waited to see what happened to him in the blinds. 1 or 2 antes would have been somewhat insignificant to your meager stack. 2500 short stack could not survive 1 orbit. He had 1 foot out the door and you pushed him aside and jumped through the door, just to be first.

Anyway, that's MY 2 cents, but I don't play high stakes - so $5 is still important to me ... :eek:
 
C

CfPoker

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Sure, there are times and hands that a K,8o will win. But here's my bottom line thinking. We constantly see HH's where someone is complaining about the huge donkey that went all-in with K,8o and cracked their AA, asking "How could he go all-in with THAT?" If CO position is a good place to all-in a K,8o sitting 11th (on the bubble), why isn't it a good place to go all-in on level 1, first hand? I fail to see the difference. If lev 1, hand 1 isn't good enough to bet the farm on K,8o, then the bubble isn't the place either.

The reason to push here with it is the blinds and antes are big enough to try and win. In level 1 they're so small it's not worth the risk of being called by a superior hand and being busted.

Table 2 shortstack was blinding before you, according to your OP, and probably pretty quick since he was at the 5 seat table. I would have at least waited to see what happened to him in the blinds. 1 or 2 antes would have been somewhat insignificant to your meager stack. 2500 short stack could not survive 1 orbit. He had 1 foot out the door and you pushed him aside and jumped through the door, just to be first.

Anyway, that's MY 2 cents, but I don't play high stakes - so $5 is still important to me ... :eek:

On a $5 buyin the $9 prize is pointless - assuming you can afford these stakes. The bottom prize money is nothing more than a consolation. As has been said:

"Keep in mind, you have to come in 10th place 27 times for each 1 time you finish first. There is a very large benefit playing for 1st place."
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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I understand the 100 for first and 10 for 9th argument but I still fold. You have 3 more hands before the next blind and 11th is getting forced all in before you. The blind has to call you and you're not likely to be much of a favorite. You can still put your chips on one of the next 3 if shortstack somehow survives. You can probably get similar odds again, if the shortstack does lose you don't know where you'll be placed at final table. You might even ladder up if you're right behind the blinds and still get to put your last 5k in on a good hand.
 
Dwilius

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It isn't your last chance to get chips but it is your best chance to bubble. If you fold I'd guess you have an immediate 70% chance at 10 (not 3.50, your buyins already gone) because either a good hand isolates shortstack or there is a checkdown and you still have a chance of building back up.
 
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Dwilius

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or do you know final table position. I guess being the 6plyr table the 4 from other one fill vacant seats and the button stays where it is.
 
7

7letters

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Oh, and one other thing. Your M is currently 1.5 (at best). You need to realize this and make moves a lot earlier to keep your stack above water. Its a lot easier to steal blinds when you've got more chips in your stack.

/me shoves this every time.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I had been trying to do just that in the game, made something of a stack but had recently lost one shove. The blinds were so high in relation to stacks on the last 2 tables that, although my M (without counting up) had shrunk to 1.5, four of my five opponents had M's under 10 and the TCL was below 20, so this has some bearing on my actions. Nevertheless, yours is sound advice.

Your OP says you were only surviving by betting 'all-ins' whenever you could. That indicates you were winning the vast majority of them, if not all. How many times can you flip a coin and expect it to be heads every time, flip after flip after flip ?

Well I was getting my money in first on a good number of occasions if that's what you mean.
In unopened pots I was often shoving. I believe this was the correct thing to do with a low stack. The thing in my favour here is that my stack hadn't shrunk so low as to make a call from an opponent an easy call. As you can see blinds+antes were a significant proportion of everyones stacks.

So no, I wasn't winning coin-flips as you say, or indeed hoping to enter coin flips(or worse) I was winning blinds and antes with ATC shoves in unopened pots or in any other favourable positions that cropped up. I can't really remember exactly how many times I was called, maybe twice. Of those, I think I doubled up once and lost once.

After the first break I was terribly card dead for an hour and found very few opportunities to make chips. Without making those first-in decisions when I did, I would of been out of the game much earlier.

Oh, I can hear it all.
I play to WIN -sounds resonable
Odds in your favor - well not necessarily should I get called
Short Stack, under xxBB - yes my stack size was upmost in my thinking. I wanted my winning to be as high as possible and I felt confident.
Dead money - yeah the pot was definately worth winning
Pot Odds - not a consideration for me here since I'd rather not be called.
It's all about taking risks
and ... That's Poker
(and the list goes on and on.....)....good list of reasons I'd say :)

"-If I hang on and finish 10th I've made just $3.50 profit." >> Is there some shame in almost doubling your money in an hour or two ?

None at all and of course, the reasons I posted was to ask for opinions.
Glad I got some differing ones.
"-This hand below looks a perfectly good opportunity to shove to me." >> Chip leader was UTG and folded. SB wasn't going to call anything.
The fact that CL folded was a bonus and I don't want the SB to call.
[/unquote]


"- On previous plays I don't expect either player to my left to call without a pretty decent hand." >> BB?? No way was he folding. He had 2k in the pot and had you covered 5:1. You asked for a decision from Lady Luck - and got it.
The Big Blind was tight-tight-aggressive. I was made aware during the game that Goober in the BB was infact a former European Amateur Poker Champion.
Obviously he could play but he'd suprised me a number of times when he folded to my button and CO steals. I needed the steals and I didn't want calls.
He played very well but very tight indeed(He went on to win the game and
played some good poker at the FT - but again very tight.At these blinds there was little room for much fancy stuff)

Your right, BB had extremely good odds to call my raise but I didn't think any two cards would be enough for him to call. Even with his chip advantage and the favourable pot odds, a loss would infact leave him with an M of less than 7 and little room to use his skill. I'm sure he'd prefer to use his skill to play on rather than enter coin flips or worse. I think he'd put down mediocre holdings here - turned out he called with the very best of cards.


Sure, there are times and hands that a K,8o will win. But here's my bottom line thinking. We constantly see HH's where someone is complaining about the huge donkey that went all-in with K,8o and cracked their AA, asking "How could he go all-in with THAT?" If CO position is a good place to all-in a K,8o sitting 11th (on the bubble), why isn't it a good place to go all-in on level 1, first hand? I fail to see the difference. If lev 1, hand 1 isn't good enough to bet the farm on K,8o, then the bubble isn't the place either.
[/unquote]
I think the explanations are above. It's quite obvious. Blinds+Antes/Stack size. Well that and the fact that I chose to aim for a better payout.

Table 2 shortstack was blinding before you, according to your OP, and probably pretty quick since he was at the 5 seat table. I would have at least waited to see what happened to him in the blinds. 1 or 2 antes would have been somewhat insignificant to your meager stack. 2500 short stack could not survive 1 orbit. He had 1 foot out the door and you pushed him aside and jumped through the door, just to be first.

Anyway, that's MY 2 cents, but I don't play high stakes - so $5 is still important to me ... :eek:

I don't play high stakes either. Apart from the odd $50 game for the excitement (or when I'm drunk) I'm usually $10 or under tourneys and 25c NL - usually under that 6max rings.

This was a chance to make the FT, and from there I can aim to win. I was intending on playing very aggressively at the FT and anything could happen in this structure.

What maybe did have a bearing on my decision was the fact that it had
been a fun game, a live radio broadcast with commentary and I wanted to make the FT - for the better payout and..well because I'm vain and wanted my name announced over and over again on the radio:D

The time was suited to US players rather than Europeans and it was getting very late - 'if I'm gonna stay up any longer then I want more than $3.50 profit for my bother' was my thinking.
This game was also at a site that I don't really enjoy playing at and I rarely play there. I think I had about $80 freeroll winnings at that site and I couldn't cash out without depositing. To be honest I didn't care for $3.50 in this case.

However, without the reason given immediately above. I still think my push
was the correct thing to do here.

It's been good to read all your views on this.
 
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Leeguana

Leeguana

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I probably would have folded it and kept my fingers crossed for something better in the next hand or two, while hoping the short stack bubbles out.

That said, it doesn't seem like a bad move to push all in here. If you're nursing a small BR you might want to just fold and make the money, but if the buy in is a small % of your BR, then pushing all in seems like a better choice.

My BR is miniscule, so folding would be a more definite decision if it were a bigger buy in event (i.e. $1000 buy in, and 10th pays $2000).
 
tpb221

tpb221

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Should have waited for a better hand. You still have 4 hands to play till you post the BB. With any luck the guy with 2500 loses or you get a better hand.
 
7

7letters

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I'd shove here. Would you?

STT-3 players remaining
You SB:$1380
Player1 BB: $5280
Player2:$3,340

Blinds:$250/$500

Player2:Folds
Your hand: :9d4: :6c4:
 
theskillzdatklls

theskillzdatklls

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i''m sure many people have said this, but i was in this exact same situation this morning.
22 people, im in 22nd place. 18th = $35, 1st = $700. Folded to me on the button, I have A5s -- I = ALL IN
SB has JJ, I lose. (thats okay)

I had enough $$ to sit out and get the $30, which means a lot to my bankroll, especially when I do $3 sngs mostly. However, you NEVER give a S**T about bottom places, you care about getting first, and only first. Just think about the simple math of a $3 profit to a $100 profit - bubble 33x times or win once?

The only time where i think its a good idea to bubble in tournament play is when your middle-ish, its right on the verge, many people can take you out, yet you won't suffer much by folding an extra orbit or two etc.. I usually get into the landing zone in that situation then play for first.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Sure, there are times and hands that a K,8o will win. But here's my bottom line thinking. We constantly see HH's where someone is complaining about the huge donkey that went all-in with K,8o and cracked their AA, asking "How could he go all-in with THAT?" If CO position is a good place to all-in a K,8o sitting 11th (on the bubble), why isn't it a good place to go all-in on level 1, first hand? I fail to see the difference. If lev 1, hand 1 isn't good enough to bet the farm on K,8o, then the bubble isn't the place either.

Sorry to be blunt, but read HOH 2 (and 1 I suppose) now or you will forever be a losing player.
 
nevadanick

nevadanick

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Sorry to be blunt, but read HOH 2 (and 1 I suppose) now or you will forever be a losing player.

I'd have to believe you directed this to me -IF- I were a losing player.

I have never deposited at any site online. I have small BR's on Stars and Tilt (the only sites I spend any time on) and have 3 Weekly Round 2 tickets in the ticket bank on Stars. I'm 62nd in the top 100 FR 2008 standings on 'brand x' forum and have points not yet added. How is this a 'losing player'??

I make more than I lose at the local casino and am on the tourney leaderboard, but why post stats. Anyone can make up anything in a post about their 'live' play, but my wallet knows the story.

Maybe I'm just happy being a winning recreational poker player ... :eek:

How often do all these strategy book writers take down 1st anymore? I'm NOT saying they aren't good players. They have earned their way to the sponsorships, endorsement contracts, etc. Most of them still make it ITM, but not necessarily 1st. Does that now make them 'losing' players?

I'll take ITM anytime I can make it, any way I get there. For those who say 1st is the ONLY place to be - sure, it's where you WANT to be, but the cards aren't always there, are they? All the skill and reading in the world won't tell Lady Luck what to put on that board when you are all-in pre-river.

Of the 6 to 8,000 annual wsop-ME players, how many read the books? 90% of the entries finish out of the money. Why aren't they 'winning players'? They aren't. They're just out their $10,000 plus expenses (and the cost of the books. ;) .)

Amazon lists 70,418 poker related books for sale. I'll bet they don't all say the same thing, or there wouldn't be any need for the variations. Are they good reading? Of course. Anything you can add to your strategy arsenal is a good thing. Do the books cover every situation in every game in every MTT at every buy-in for every player at every level? MMmm, don't think so.

Just curious - how can I be a winning recreational poker player online when I'm obviously playing against all the online experts, many of which are also posting "I had to step-down", "just re-load, no problem", or "I've deposited many times with this visa but it doesn't work anymore"?

My opinions, based only on live experience since '69 and online for 2 years, are usually in the minority. That's OK - I'll keep drowning in the sorrow of my winnings ... ;) .
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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How often do all these strategy book writers take down 1st anymore?

The book reccommended by Dorkus was HOH2. Dan Harrington recently came out of retirement to take down a WPT event for millions I believe.
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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blinds 250/500 3plyr. I'm allin blind.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Just curious - how can I be a winning recreational poker player online when I'm obviously playing against all the online experts, many of which are also posting "I had to step-down", "just re-load, no problem", or "I've deposited many times with this VISA but it doesn't work anymore"?
umm, you're not, you're playing freerolls. i could train a monkey to beat freerolls. in fact, i wouldn't even need to train the monkey, if he just hit random buttons in between eating his own excrement and scratching his armpits he would eventually luck his way to a cash and become a 'winning' freeroll player. he'd probably be one of the better players, mind you.
 
nevadanick

nevadanick

Back to work ... zzzzz
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umm, you're not, you're playing freerolls. i could train a monkey to beat freerolls. in fact, i wouldn't even need to train the monkey, if he just hit random buttons in between eating his own excrement and scratching his armpits he would eventually luck his way to a cash and become a 'winning' freeroll player. he'd probably be one of the better players, mind you.

Thx for your overwhelmingly intelligent insight.

I'll go back to talking to my wallet on live tables and my online BR's. The only thing they ever say is 'thank you'.

I thought this forum was different than the others, but have to admit, I was proven wrong. If you do not agree with 'the big boys', there is no place for a difference of opinion.

No need to think up some sarcastic reply - I won't be reading it. Entertain your cronies if you must. Buh bye.
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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I have to admit some of the recent posts have been harsh on Nick. His "any preflop allin is an instafold for me" just doesn't fit with NLHE, maybe he should stick to other poker variations and maybe we should give him a break.
 
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