QQ in a 6 Seater- Final Part

[mischman]

Overall thoughts on how it was played?

pokerstars Game #713405903: Tournament #3646190, $12+$1 Hold'em No Limit -
Level I (10/20) - 2006/11/22 - 21:00:48 (ET)
Table '36461901 1' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: mischman (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: buckeye1al (1380 in chips)
Seat 3: LOU2121 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: Russ@REW (1600 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: KKKID38 (1460 in chips)
Seat 6: spazzy (1560 in chips)
spazzy: posts small blind 10
mischman: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mischman [Qd Qc]
buckeye1al: calls 20
LOU2121: calls 20
Russ@REW: folds
KKKID38: raises 60 to 80
spazzy: folds
mischman: raises 140 to 220
buckeye1al: raises 480 to 700
LOU2121: folds
KKKID38: calls 620
Russ@REW has returned
mischman: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 4d 4c]
buckeye1al: bets 680 and is all-in
KKKID38: calls 680
*** TURN *** [9c 4d 4c] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [9c 4d 4c 9s] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
buckeye1al: shows [Th Ts] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
KKKID38: shows [8h 8d] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
buckeye1al collected 3010 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3010 | Rake 0
Board [9c 4d 4c 9s Jd]
Seat 1: mischman (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: buckeye1al showed [Th Ts] and won (3010) with two pair, Tens and Nines
Seat 3: LOU2121 folded before Flop
Seat 4: Russ@REW folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: KKKID38 (button) showed [8h 8d] and lost with two pair, Nines and Eights
Seat 6: spazzy (small blind) folded before Flop

 

[loopmeister]

Wow. Any reads on these guys?
- In my experience, people raise huge with all sorts of crap early on in tournies (Ax, 44, 72o...)
- QQ is still a very strong hand.
- Your pot odds aren't bad with 2 callers; over 3:1. With QQ that's ve-ery tempting; given that you know you'll be forced all-in at some point.

Conclusion: I'd call this 65% of the time, provided I was wearing my rocket ship underpants.

 

[mischman]

Wow. Any reads on these guys?
- In my experience, people raise huge with all sorts of crap early on in tournies (Ax, 44, 72o...)
- QQ is still a very strong hand.
- Your pot odds aren't bad with 2 callers; over 3:1. With QQ that's ve-ery tempting; given that you know you'll be forced all-in at some point.

Conclusion: I'd call this 65% of the time, provided I was wearing my rocket ship underpants.

Thats called me being results orientated. Calling is worse than folding/shoving.
Like everyone said in i think part 2, your either ahead or behind. If you think your ahead bbv. get your money in. I dont think calling a huge portion of your stack to try to get lucky is smart and wont be profitable in the long run.

 

[mikeyg32118]

From the looks of it I think I would've called as well. Unless you were playing with very...VERY...known tight players that only raise with HUGE hands it doesn't seem to make much sense to fold your Queens preflop in your situation.

Don't mind me...I'm new here LOL

 

[loopmeister]

Yeah, you're right-- my bad. Heuristically, pushing is better. So what's your EV here? I'll take a stab:

Fold EV = -220

In all cases, assume you push and get 2 callers.
Case 1: (45%) Ax + smaller pair: 55% chance of winning.

Case 245%) Ax/underpair + overpair: 17% chance of winning

Case 310%) 2overpairs: 15% chance of winning

EV = (0.45*0.55 + 0.45*0.17 + 0.1*0.15)*(+3000) +
(0.45*0.45 + 0.45*0.83 + 0.1*0.85)*(-1500)
------------------------------------------------------------------
EV = +25.5

You can argue the distribution (I've just realised I've left out the 2 underpairs case, which favours you 66%, but I'm too lazy to redo the calc)-- but there's actually a clear advantage to pushing over folding here. The important thing is to get 2 callers. I think that's very likely though.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I would argue with your distribution a little, but I'd agree there is a marginal cEV advantage to pushing as opposed to folding (calling is terrible). Having said this...

In a cash game I poooosh.

In a tournament I fold.

Do you see why?

 

[myxiplx]

Wohoo! My all in would have won 3k.

Ok, ok, so I'm being hugely results oriented, but hey, I can live with that. Wohoo! ;-)

Myx

 

[myxiplx]

Dorkus, I assume that's because the blinds show it's early days in the tournament and mischman's sitting on a decent size chip stack. There's no need to gamble your tournament life on this hand so early on. Either player could actually have you beat here, and if you're confident of your ability it's better to let this go for now.

You've got a chance to see the cards of both players & see how they play, and plenty of time to wait for a better opportunity to take their chips.

Is that on the right lines?

Myx

 

[loopmeister]

How big an entry fee is $12? Isn't that a small tournament? Granted, it's not a freeroll, but I'm assuming you get plenty of donks who push with hopeless hands first few rounds of a tourney.

If I'm mistaken, please correct me.

I hear what you're saying DM. Even though you have a +EV with a push, in a tourney, the risk of losing an all-in is too great (assuming you can't buy back in)-- if you're out, you're out.

In Risk Analysis it's called catastrophe theory.

An (over the top) analogy would be turning off the safety control system in a nuclear plant. Let's say the chances of a meltdown in a year are 0.1%, and you save $10mil per year by cutting back on the safety controls. From an accounting perspective it makes sense to do it, as long as a meltdown would cause damages of $10bil or less. But the cost of the catastrophe is such that you simply cannot afford that.

Or the reason I have medical insurance. If I paid my premiums into an account instead of to the Medical Aid company, I'd save ten grand a year. I'm losing out in the long run (ie -EV), because my medical expenses are about a grand a year and will in all likelihood stay that way (give or take) until kingdom come. But I keep paying the insurance in any case, because although I'll probably never[\I] need it, a lengthy stay in hospital with heart surgery, say, would bankrupt me for life if I didn't have cover; or worse, they wouldn't even admit me. So I keep paying a losing bet for cover against the highly unlikely event of a catastrophe.

In a cash game (or a Freeroll, in my view), being stacked is not a catastrophic event, so you push with gay abandon.

A reasonable explanation?

 

[myxiplx]

Catastrophe theory, I like that. Nice post loopmeister.