pocket pair with undercard flop

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Mooronic

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Live Casino Tourney. 6th level. Blinds are 600/1200. I am in middle position with a stack of about 40,000. Table is shorthanded at the moment with 6 players. I had just been moved to the table and have no reads.
Folds to me. I pick up :9d4: :9h4:
I raise to 3000. Folds to the blinds, who both call. Both blinds have similar chip stacks to my own. Pot is 9,000.

Flop is :8h4: :4h4: :4c4:

SB checks and the bb bets 6,000.

I have an overpair on a relatively safe board. I’m confident the sb has nothing and will soon be throwing his hand away. The bb’s bet means something, but I’m not sure what yet. Here’s my reasoning on his potential hands:

What I’m beating:

X-8 – Probably the likeliest of scenarios. A loose player will call pre-flop raises with connectors like 9-8 suited or even something like J-8.
A-X – Also a likely. AK/AQ type hands would also fit this scenario – his 2/3 pot bet into a safe board is perfectly reasonable for this hand.

Smaller pp – small pair makes sense here.

Flush draw – potential is there.

What I’m loosing to:

X-4 – Unless he had a pair of fours in the hole, there’s no reason for him to be in this hand holding a 4. A 5-4 / 4-3 connector or even A-4 are all possible holdings…but not likely. I would also imagine he would slow play trips.

Higher pp - I was afraid of a premium pair, but I reasoned that any pp higher than my nines would’ve probably been re-raised pre-flop.

88 – If he flopped a full house, all the power to him.

I think I'm ahead - lets find out. I raised to 12,000. I figured if I’m beat, I’ll get re-raised and I can get out of it albeit at a significant cost to my stack. Sb folds and the bb calls. The pot is 27,000.

The turn is a :6d4: adding a diamond flush and potential straight draws.

The bb checks. What do I do?
 
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Bentheman87

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The fact that this opponent didn't put in a another raise after your raise and checks the turn makes me think he has K8 or A8. The 6 didn't help him unless he has 66 or called preflop with 5 7 and bet into you and called a raise with an inside straight draw. So bet like 15,000 to 20,000.
 
Steveg1976

Steveg1976

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Check - For a couple of reasons, if you raise and he check raises you, you are folding this hand and just gave away chips. Two, say he calls and a A, or K hits on the river. You are almost certainly going to fold to a large bet from him, and unless he is fool he will bet whether he has it or not. By checking you are allowing yourself to lose the least amount of chips possible if you are behind right now. If he allows you to, check this hand down, there is no reason to lose a huge pot with a small pocket pair.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Gross. I'm just gonna talk / ramble this one out, take from it what you will:

This is a hard one without reads. It's difficult to figure him for a pocket pair higher than yours with all the flat calling he's doing. And if he's flopped a full house... yeah, so be it.

I think you're most likely up against a flush draw here, something in the Ax/KQ/KJ/QJ suited range.

That said, your hand's really not that strong either - and if they are playing a flush draw with overcards, then you're vulnerable to any paint cards that come too.

My first instinct was to shove: villain is playing the hand passive, and the pot is now bigger than your stack so anything other than a shove pot commits you anyway. Also, if the villain is still drawing, you don't want to give him a free card: even if it doesn't help him, there are very few river cards that aren't going to scare you.

But having thought about it, I'd feel kinda dumb if I got put out of the tournament holding just a pair of nines :eek:

So I dunno... shove, and scream at the top of your lungs "deuce of clubs, one time!" if you get called?
 
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Mooronic

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I put him as having a better chance of having an drawing / inferior hand to my pair. With my stack the size and the pot, it's either all-in or check. I pushed all-in. He thought for awhile and eventually flipped over his Jacks for the higher pair. I didn't improve.

Preflop I could've easily thrown this hand away. A raise against two blinds with big stacks was likely just going to get me involved in a big pot with a mediocre hand. This led to the difficult decisions I had to make that followed.
 
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