pair on board gives you trips

heatfan03

heatfan03

Visionary
Joined
Feb 22, 2007
Total posts
646
Ok this is an in general question but heres an example. Ok so you flop trips. someone bets big or all in.. do you think about a higher kicker or is it going to be profitable to call this on almost all occasions barring a very good read... (i snap called this because i hadn't seen him slow play a hand and doubted he had AK or AQ to have me beat. A2 well not worried about that. So yeah is this a profitable call ???


Stacks:

* BB with 1260
* UTG with 3280
* UTG+1 with 2130
* MP1 with 7694
* MP2 with 3230
* MP3 with 1161
* CO with 1168
* BTN with 5006
* SB with 2071

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: 100/200
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to SB:J♥ A♦
* * Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [200]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero calls [100]
* * BB: checks
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: 600
Flop:
* * A♥ A♠ 2♦
* * Hero: checks
* * BB: checks
* * MP2 bets [3030] [ all-in ]
* * Hero calls [1871] [ all-in ]
* * 1 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: 5501
Turn:
* * 3♣
* * Potsize: 5501
River:
* * J♣
Results:


The results have been hidden.

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THe Slob

THe Slob

Rock Star
Joined
Oct 16, 2007
Total posts
149
You've got 10 BB before posting. Trips with a J kicker I think it's an insta-call. You can't possibly fold here.
 
heatfan03

heatfan03

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Feb 22, 2007
Total posts
646
no i wasn't so much as debating folding this hand . Just in general when you trip with the board pairing how do you handle it and is it profitable to be calling / raising almost all the time.
 
B

Bentheman87

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Sep 6, 2007
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794
"no i wasn't so much as debating folding this hand . Just in general when you trip with the board pairing how do you handle it and is it profitable to be calling / raising almost all the time."

Good question I think about this sometimes and I'm still not sure. I've seen videos of daniel negreanu making amazing laydowns folding trips (not a set, but trips with a medium to bad kicker) when he is up aganst trips with a better kicker. I think it depends a lot on the preflop action, which trips it is, and what your kicker is. For example if there's a lot of preflop action and you call on the button with King 3 and flop comes K K 4, it's very possible you're up against AK or KQ or KJ if you get a lot of action. On the other hand if it came K 3 3 you're better off stacking. Still I almost never fold trips even if I have a bad kicker, and 8/10 times I have the best hand so I think it is profitable in most situations to call or raise.
 
THe Slob

THe Slob

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Oct 16, 2007
Total posts
149
With trips on the flop, wouldn't the odds of you opponent having the case Ace be 47:1 against. Usually I’ll assume I'm ahead when I have trips unless I get information to the contrary. Sometimes the betting will give you a good indication of whether you're beat or not.

For example, you're in the BB with 8 7 off suit, 2 limpers (MP1 and the Button), the SB completes and you take one off. The flop comes 77J. Great you have trips with backdoor straight draw. You bet out, MP1 calls the Button raises and the SB folds. Perhaps you call, hoping MP1 comes along for the ride, or you re-raise to fold out MP1 and get heads up with the button. In either case the action is on MP1 who suddenly throws in a pot-sized raise.

Now you’ve got to wonder what MP1 has that he cold called a flop raise and then three bets into two opponents. Has he a 7 with a better kicker? Did he just get crazy lucky limping with a J7 and you’re drawing dead to runner, runner 8’s (a .4% chance)? Maybe he limped with JJ and now you’re dead to the case 7.

While you’re contemplating all these scenarios, the action’s over the button who moves all-in. Now, unless you’re playing with two complete idiots, one of these two players has you beat, and you can lay this hand down.

I’ve been in these situations before and I’m sure most of the posters here have as well. So in a case like this I don’t think calling an all-in raise would be a +EV play.

In you’re situation, against one opponent, the odds against him having the case A are so overwhelming, I would think the call would have a large +EV over the long term.

Of course I haven’t had much sleep in the past couple of days, so this could be complete gibberish; if I’m wrong in my thinking someone please correct me.
 
F

Fermion5

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Mar 7, 2008
Total posts
33
so many other things matter. can't say for sure whether this or that play is profitable 100% of the time.

things that matter: stakes you are playing at, preflop action, # of players on table, # of players to see flop, read on opponent, flop texture (straight/flush draws, how low the trips are as some people shove overpairs on 224 flops, whether full house is likely).

I generally call shove on flop with trips and J kicker in a tourney situation almost every time. If you are beat, you got coolered. The other time I focus on the above factors, yet rarely fold since I play at microstakes.
 
S

switch0723

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Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
instacall everytime, but why didnt you raise pre flop out of curiostiy?

I think the only time we can think about laying this down is with a,3, a,4, and a,5, maybe a,6
 
B

boogeyman316

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Feb 6, 2008
Total posts
23
According to poker stove:

Notice the win% is barely over 50% but the equity is a solid 62%

1,246,049 games 85.188 secs 14,627 games/sec

Board: Ah As 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.465% 50.64% 11.82% 631043 147300.50 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 37.535% 25.71% 11.82% 320412 147300.50 { A2s+, A2o+ }

P.S. I tried to format it right but nothign worked
 
KenFischer

KenFischer

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Jan 10, 2008
Total posts
401
It depends.

In this case, I would expect your limper to be open-raising with AK or AQ, so I doubt you are up against a better kicker.

They could have a smaller A (probably suited) two other high cards, or a medium pocket pair (probably the most likely). Even if you are up against 22, you can still catch an A or J on the turn/river to win, or if the turn and river comes paired.

Insta-call makes sense to me.
 
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