Over playing AK

[XXXDIRTYDOGXXX]

Maybe I've been a way for awhile but it smells fishy to me

and Bluenowhere I've been reading some other posts here and noticed you really do like that blocker theory. lol

 

[BlueNowhere]

Bad players mean they don't understand why they should be jamming and not raising in this spot. Average player is way too wide with the hand they pull this sort of play with. I agree it smells fishy but I've seen villians 3-bet/fold (after what you would think would be pot-commiting) and 3-bet/call 97o.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Well it's essential to the reason of folding is bad. Mean's we're only a huge dog to 3 combos and biggish dog to 3 combos.

 

[calicard]

I would but my database went funny and I lost all data. With a blocker to AA and KK so not many combos you only need them to have AQ/AJ some of the time to make this a profitable shove. Plus in a MTT you know you're going to have to flip for stacks at some point and with blocker to AA/KK this is as good a time as any.

This would actually be the worst possible time the prize money for 10th place is ridiculously low.
Another point I would like to make. You are probably correct in assuming that most players playing in this are not that good. But I play this almost every night as do many players and out of the 60-80 entries the same 10 or so players are always in the top 15 or so. I know 3 of the players on this 1 and believe me after playing them over and over again. I have a great respect for their game. They also play in the nightly $10 bounty as do I. The reason a lot of us play this 25 center, Is for the action. We have very few tourneys to choose from so why we are online we play everyone that is going at the time.

 

[BlueNowhere]

This would actually be the worst possible time the prize money for 10th place is ridiculously low.
Another point I would like to make. You are probably correct in assuming that most players playing in this are not that good. But I play this almost every night as do many players and out of the 60-80 entries the same 10 or so players are always in the top 15 or so. I know 3 of the players on this 1 and believe me after playing them over and over again. I have a great respect for their game. They also play in the nightly $10 bounty as do I. The reason a lot of us play this 25 center, Is for the action. We have very few tourneys to choose from so why we are online we play everyone that is going at the time.

those players are running ridic hot if they are regularly in the top 15 because even players with a fairly decent skill edge struggle to get anywhere near top 25% all the time.

What was your plan? wait for AA/KK , let everyone build their stack in the meantime and go out in an unimpressive 5th. I'm guessing tourney is top heavy pay structure, with not much difference between 5th-10th. and a big difference between 1st and 2nd. If thats the case then now is a good time to flip and push on for the win.

 

[baudib1]

But I play this almost every night as do many players and out of the 60-80 entries the same 10 or so players are always in the top 15 or so.

There's almost 0 chance this is true.

 

[calicard]

There's almost 0 chance this is true.

It is true and my friend I can and will prove it

 

[imwatcher]

lol prop bets anyone?

 

[BlueNowhere]

lol prop bets anyone?

I'd do $50 at 3/1 that it isn't true, any takers?

 

[baudib1]

Phil Ivey and Erik Seidel would have to run really really hot to finish in the top 15 of a 60-80 man more than like 25-30% of the time so I really doubt there are a group of 10+ players always finishing in the top 15.

For starters, optimal play would have you pushing small edges very early so that makes you one of the first players out a large percentage of the time. If this group of players is playing suboptimally that makes it even more unlikely they can consistently finish high.

 

[Aldito]

Post your damn HH in a format that doesn't make our eyes bleed. If I see one more thread by you with these ugly HHs I'm reporting you to a mod.

 

[calicard]

I'd do $50 at 3/1 that it isn't true, any takers?

So I am going to through go through my hand histories for this tournament and show you exactly how many of the same players are on the FT with me will that be proof enough.I do not mean to say I am on the FT every night but I average it 3 nights a week out of the 6 I play it and when I am not there the same 10 players or so will rotate. Usually there are 4 regulars and 6 unkowns at the FT here. Then again the unkowns might be known as you can change your screen name there.

 

[BlueNowhere]

So I am going to through go through my hand histories for this tournament and show you exactly how many of the same players are on the FT with me will that be proof enough.I do not mean to say I am on the FT every night but I average it 3 nights a week out of the 6 I play it and when I am not there the same 10 players or so will rotate. Usually there are 4 regulars and 6 unkowns at the FT here. Then again the unkowns might be known as you can change your screen name there.

If you can show me that the same 10 players make top 15 most nights then yes I'd believe you.

 

[calicard]

Post your damn HH in a format that doesn't make our eyes bleed. If I see one more thread by you with these ugly HHs I'm reporting you to a mod.

Cake poker will not convert hands on any converter I have tried so chill out.

 

[calicard]

Results of 8 played

Phil Ivey and Erik Seidel would have to run really really hot to finish in the top 15 of a 60-80 man more than like 25-30% of the time so I really doubt there are a group of 10+ players always finishing in the top 15.

For starters, optimal play would have you pushing small edges very early so that makes you one of the first players out a large percentage of the time. If this group of players is playing suboptimally that makes it even more unlikely they can consistently finish high.

I have sent you and Blue nowhere A private message with the proof that what I say is true. Believe me when I say the top 10 players are usually in there somewhere. maybe not as often as I thought they were but it seems I see the same players on the FT a lot there.
By the way what did you think of that shove with 7 2 was that classic or what. The ace 8 last night was a desperate attempt at a steal. I was so card dead the last 20 hands I was hoping for a easy steal when I got reraised I said to myself. Screw it

A summary of what was sent

Hand#2829A0C244000348 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10535492 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 7 -- 125/600/1200 NL Hold'em -- 2012/01/03 - 00:19:42
luckyfk finished 10 out of 54 players.



Hand#2828A0B25A000470 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10531418 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 9 -- 600/3000/6000 NL

Hold'em -- 2012/01/02 - 01:14:37

luckyfk finished 4 out of 65 players.



Hand#2826A09731000398 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10524465 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 5 -- 800/4000/8000 NL Hold'em -- 2011/12/31 - 01:21:03

luckyfk finished 1 out of 53 players.



Hand#2825A088F5000457 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10520821 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 4 -- 400/2000/4000 NL Hold'em -- 2011/12/30 - 01:04:08

RTODTO finished 6 out of 62 players.



Hand#2822A058EB000430 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10508523 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 2 -- 800/4000/8000 NL Hold'em -- 2011/12/27 - 01:19:35

RTODTO finished 2 out of 46 players.


Hand#2817A0101B000401 - $0.25 NL Hold'em - R&A T10489883 -- CASH -- $0.25 + $0.1 -- 10 Max -- Table 6 -- 400/2000/4000 NL Hold'em -- 2011/12/26 - 01:03:36
RTODTO finished 5 out of 54 players.

 

[BlueNowhere]

How on earth is that proof? Over 6 nights only one player appeared more than once (twice) and everyone else appeared once. That basically cements what me and baudib said.

Player(s) appearing once:

evolball
noel7
spinmein
DieSuckerDie
jbizzle2
dimanempro
cukyt
PaulasSis
DeepStackDan
ctrlx
chad$
2playaroyal
cocadklove
verbo53
boogie70
Turbulance4
indydallas
rikibudalo
NCRoadHog
MissedDaFlop
I LikeCheese

Player(s) appearing twice:

L00732

 

[calicard]

How on earth is that proof? Over 6 nights only one player appeared more than once (twice) and everyone else appeared once. That basically cements what me and baudib said.

Player(s) appearing once:

evolball
noel7
spinmein
DieSuckerDie
jbizzle2
dimanempro
cukyt
PaulasSis
DeepStackDan
ctrlx
chad$
2playaroyal
cocadklove
verbo53
boogie70
Turbulance4
indydallas
rikibudalo
NCRoadHog
MissedDaFlop
I LikeCheese

Player(s) appearing twice:

L00732

The players I bolded are all regulars in the top 15 over 3 months of play

If you want me to post 3 months of hand history I will. But I think it should be sufficient enough proof that I made it 6 out of 8. Why do you not believe me when I say the other players do very well too?

 

[BlueNowhere]

Well you said you sent me proof, I ordered it for you to show it wasn't proof at all. Why was the PM titled proof if it didn't prove anything?

Because over a 3 month time period it's ridiculously unlikely the same 10+ make the final 15 most nights in a row. If I play a $0.25 45-man tourney once a night for 30 days I won't make FTevery night, probably looking at maybe 10 nights at most despite having a fairly big edge against every other player. For 10+ players to regularly make the final 15 is just ridiculous.

 

[calicard]

Well you said you sent me proof, I ordered it for you to show it wasn't proof at all. Why was the PM titled proof if it didn't prove anything?

Because over a 3 month time period it's ridiculously unlikely the same 10+ make the final 15 most nights in a row. If I play a $0.25 45-man tourney once a night for 30 days I won't make FTevery night, probably looking at maybe 10 nights at most despite having a fairly big edge against every other player. For 10+ players to regularly make the final 15 is just ridiculous.

I think the way this thread is going it should be moved to brags beats and Challenges for what I am about to propose to you is a Challenge!!!
I will post it there

 

[BlueNowhere]

This should be interesting...

 

[cjatud2012]

[x] mod votes to end derail