Over pair vs low FD/SD board + all in

[ph_il]

Only read I have on villian is that Ive seen him/her reraise PF with big pairs 10s-AA and AK, so I was 99% sure he didnt have an over pair to my hand. A boat was also very unlikely, as was quads. A three didnt make didnt make much sense either unless he called with A3s, but why push it on the flop and give me a chance to fold?

I think worst case scenario is my opponent had 2 over cards and a flush draw, which would make us about even to win by the river. Do I call or fold in this situation?

Full Tilt Poker Game #3805142970: $10 + $1 Tournament (28472796) Table 20 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:20:29 ET - 2007/10/09
Seat 1: x1rosanna (2 052)
Seat 2: sebitim (8 635)
Seat 3: ChetThe3rd (7 130)
Seat 4: JohnnyT812 (1 460)
Seat 5: Hypergerdi (6 227)
Seat 6: Laurent_Hell (3 020)
Seat 7: fishingdon (3 874)
Seat 8: Philthy (4 635)
Seat 9: JeremyShepard01 (3 838)
ChetThe3rd posts the small blind of 80
JohnnyT812 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #2

Holecards:
Dealt to Philthy [

]
Hypergerdi folds
Laurent_Hell folds
fishingdon folds
Philthy raises to 460
JeremyShepard01 folds
x1rosanna folds
sebitim calls 460
ChetThe3rd folds
JohnnyT812 folds

Flop:
[

]
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy bets 640
sebitim has 15 seconds left to act
sebitim raises to 8 175 and is all in
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy has requested TIME

 

[vanquish]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

37,620 games 0.063 secs 597,142 games/sec

Board: 4c 3c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.190% 62.19% 00.00% 23396 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 37.810% 37.81% 00.00% 14224 0.00 { 88-33, AcKc, A3s, KcQc, A3o }



Call IMO.

 

[ChuckTs]

Easy call here if you're sure he isn't tricky enough to smooth call with a big pair. Expect either a smaller pair or some kind of draw to overcards or the flush the majority of the time.

 

[ChuckTs]

woops didn't notice stack sizes...

Even so, I think I call this a lot of the time.