Odds to call this?

Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Stacks:
* MP3 with 2558
* CO with 400
* BTN with 4677
* SB with 2875
* BB with 2260
* UTG with 2354
* UTG+1 with 1425
* MP1 with 350
* MP2 with 2446

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: 75/150
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BB:7♦ 2♦
Preflop:
* * 4 players fold.
* * MP3 raises 270 to 420
* * CO calls [400] [ all-in ]
BB : ???

270 into a 1045 pot I had MP3 on A9+, 99+ and CO on connectors 78+, KJ+, 22+ Figured I had about a 20% chance to hit. I always forget if the odds should be calculated with or with out my bet added to the pot.
 
Last edited:
P

p0K35

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Apr 16, 2008
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are you being funny? oh, they are sooted, lol. This is interesting, albeit non-intuitive...

Figure the odds without amount you need to call. Actually, you are just about getting the right odds to call, gonna win 27% of the hands against 2 other random hands, and you have to put in 26%(close enuff). The problem is the implied odds, the allin, who cares, the cards will determine, but no more action from them, the other player is the problem...

You're basically heads-up with another equal stack who called a preflop allin, with 72, and have to see the rest of the hand. If you are confident they will 'check it down' to showdown(the proper tourney play), then ok. If they bet into the dry sidepot, and you miss the miracle flop, what then?

There is another thing, you would be 'overcalling' an allin with the worst poker hand. In tourney poker, chips rule, but eliminating a player, is even better. The allin was already called, and have the weakest hand possible, there is NO hand you have any odds on, so why bother. What you should be thinking is, do I want to triple up the short stack?

Simple answer, insta fold.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Ok I did fold as I was thinking I was about 80% to lose those 270 chips and that would have put my M<10. And since it wasn't the final table or close to the bubble there was no $EV to call. Had I called I would have flopped 2P and turned a FH. Was looking to see if there was some tournament strategy where a call here might be profitable in the long run.
 
odinscott

odinscott

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On a hand like that, being the worst hand in the deck, I dont even bother to consider the odds.
And for the record, I believe that hole cards being suited makes a major major difference if they are either middle-to-high connectors or face cards. There is a big difference between KJos and KJs.
 
F

feitr

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yea it doesn't really work in a 3 way pot. If CO had shoved and it folded to you i would insta call with 27s just coz you are probably like 39% or something to win (if he has 2 overcards) and have to put 250 into a 875 pot.

But wouldn't bother at all in a 3 way live pot.
 
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