nut flush draw with bottom pair against 2 opponents

DaveE

DaveE

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Early stages of a 1000 player tourney.

pokerstars Game #11067679186: Tournament #55434368, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/07/22 - 02:18:12 (ET)
Table '55434368 107' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: WaziAkrim (3100 in chips)
Seat 2: satellite84 (1440 in chips)
Seat 3: frontline7 (1130 in chips)
Seat 4: icedtearex (3230 in chips)
Seat 5: Sisifito (1270 in chips)
Seat 6: Willmaster (940 in chips)
Seat 7: bullseye001 (1660 in chips)
Seat 8: killer3333 (3440 in chips)
Seat 9: Twalker321 (2490 in chips)
killer3333: posts small blind 15
Twalker321: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to killer3333 [4h Ah]
WaziAkrim: calls 30
satellite84: folds
frontline7: calls 30
icedtearex: folds
Sisifito: folds
Willmaster: folds
bullseye001: raises 30 to 60
killer3333: calls 45
Twalker321: calls 30
WaziAkrim: calls 30
frontline7: calls 30
*** FLOP *** [5h 4s Kh]
killer3333: checks
Twalker321: bets 120
WaziAkrim: folds
frontline7: calls 120
bullseye001: folds
killer3333: ???

Probably a no-brainer but it's been drilled into my head that I shouldn't be chasing. Hitting a 4 or A might but put me ahead, but could also be trouble. The nut flush is obviously what I'm looking for but is it +EV to call here? If the turn is a brick do I dump the hand?
 
heatfan03

heatfan03

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lets say that a 4, ace, or a heart puts u ahead.
4
3aces
9hearts
16 outs? I think thats right i just woke up
anyway on the turn using the 2 and 4 rule u got a
64% chance of hitting. definety worth the call

my out counting might be wrong but u got at least a coin flip of winning outright on the turn mayybe.
 
DaveE

DaveE

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I'm not sure if I'm familiar with the 2 and 4 rule? Does it refer to the number of players involved in the pot?
 
K

Kaspanova

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4 / 2 Rule

The 4 2 rule is a simple way of mentally calculating the odds of drawing a winning hand during a game. It is not 100% precise, but the result is close enough to aid you in making a decision during a game, where you don't have the luxury of a calculator, pen/paper, etc.

What you do is count your outs, and multiply the result by 4 with 2 cards to come (before the turn), and by 2 with 1 card to come (before the river).

In the case of your hand, you are making a decision on the flop. If you indeed have 16 outs to win, then you have a 16*4 or 64% chance that you will draw your card by the river. If you don't get one of your cards on the turn, then your chances of drawing on the river are now 16*2 or 32%.
 
A

alan1983

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Even with just a flush and 2 opponents in it, this is a call. WIth the bottom pair too, easy call or raise.
 
D

ddh540

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at this point you definately have the odds to call. DO NOT RAISE / DO NOT FOLD. Simply call. chances are the person who made that weak bet has the same pair as you or is on a draw as well. If you miss and he goes all in on the turn, well worry about that when it happens. I'm disappointed in you. LOL
 
P

ph_il

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you were getting about 4.5 to 1 odds on the flop. Call it and hope to catch it on the turn.

Also, that flop bet was screaming 1 of 2 things:
-Im really weak and I want to test the waters.

or

-Im really strong and I want to keep you in.

I might go for a check raise on the turn if its junk and they continued with the weak betting.
 
D

Dashir

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The arithmatic is a bit off there... When you typed four, I think yiou meant 4s... of which there are only two left. So he only has 14 outs and might pick up runner runner straight.

When you calculate your odds, remember that the outs are only the cards that will improve your hand, not neccessarily to win the hand. Sometimes your outs get countefieted, or he has a bigger draw.
 
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