$ NL HE MTT: Last 12 players SB vs BB

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Freeroll

1. Freeroll

Currency

$

Is calling here a mistake? We are at the final 2 tables...only 9 hands on the SB so the stats are not relevant here.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 29,869 (15 bb)
MP: 53,103 (27 bb)
CO: 48,048 (24 bb)
BU: 55,082 (28 bb)
SB: 7,628 (4 bb)
BB (Hero): 42,249 (21 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,200) Hero is BB with 2♦ 7♦
4 players fold, SB raises to 7,428 (all-in), Hero calls 5,428

 

[Andyreas]

Based on a rule of thumb, you can call any all-in from the BB in case it's less than 4 BBs in case there's an ante.

While I don't love the 72s for it, you have to make the call due to pot odds.

Let's see in more detail:
Based on pot odds you need a bit more than 33% equity to make it profitable.

In general, the SB is assumed to jam wide from SB with his 4 BBs left.

So let's have a more detailed look:


And your equity is:


So not the most profitable call but imo you can't give him the chips for free.

And you still have 17 bigs left if you loose, so all fine.

 

[fundiver199]

Andyreas did a pretty good analysis already, but I always like to use ICM software for these kind of spots. So I plugged it into ICMizer telling the program, it was a 200 man MTT with 12 players left. This should get us close enough to the actual payouts, and with this information the program has SB jamming 75% of hands and BB calling 84% of hands. All suited hands are a call except 32s, 62s and 72s. So 72s is actually a fold here at the NASH equilibrium, but its so close, that it wont really matter to your long term results. Its not a "call any two" spot however, and if you called with unsuited junk like 72o, that would be a somewhat significant mistake.