$ NL HE MTT: How much of a blunder this hand is considering ICM?

[Galaxyyy7]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Freeroll

1. Freeroll

Currency

$

Hey guys, just played this hand that will probably haunt me for the next few weeks.

Context: Had 35~40BB and was 33 out of 1000ish players. 4 min per blind level. Everyone was playing super tight due to pay jumps and I was able to capitalize on that.

Hand plays as follows:

UTG folds > I raise as UTG+1 > Table folds to SB who defends > BB folds.

Flop is: 7, A, J. rainbow.

I raise and get re-raised. I go all-in, villain shows AJo.

I quickly get eliminated after that.

My question is: how close of a call or fold is this hand?

Does ICM make it an instant fold?

Looking back it seems like an easy fold due to the perceived strength of villain post flop, but due to how loose I was playing I could see an worse Ax doing the same.

 

[Andyreas]

Hey Buddy,

Sucks a lot.

A few more details would help on your raise size pre-flop. Your bet size on flop. And his re-raise size, etc.

Did you have any reads on the villain?

I'm also not an expert here but I think SPR can give a hint on when to stack off with top pair top kicker. Assuming you made a standard open, the pot was about 6-7 BBs going to flop. Assuming you made a standard c-bet, your SPR was around 3?

In general, I think most players would not raise UTG+1 just with TP. But as you said, if you appeared very loose aggressive, it could have been a potential play indeed.

I assume this is just a bad cooler but maybe there's more insights by our regulars here. 😊

 

[fundiver199]

For 30 BB its usually very difficult to get away from TPTK, especially when no flush or straight is possible. So this is just a standard cooler, but maybe the slightly better line is to just call his raise on the flop and allow him to bet the turn. With that being said it kind of sucks, that there are no real draws on this board, because it push his check-raising range more towards two pair and sets. But then again could he not have at least AQ and play it like this? Its a freeroll, so is a raise really always only the nuts? I dont think so, and then you can not fold, and it was just a really good flop for him.

 

[Gallarado777]

after he defended his hand on sb you must play against the opponent's hands in his arm range if you saw Ax with whom he already raises you, then he had a hand A J or A7 because against utg he knows that you have Ax like AQ or AK he didn't do it against you with Ax so he either has two pairs or set 777 or JJJ or two pairs of 7Js others on such a dry board so I would press fold and that's it but again it's easy to think after the hand but during the hand with AK and you saw A on the table you thought you were stronger and went ahead but you'll think a little bit in the future and you will understand that there are such giveaways and you have to look at it more deeply and then decide

 

[puzzlefish]

Sounds like a cooler but can't really answer whether you could get away or not without knowing what the exact sizings were on betting. TPTK gets beat a lot of the time in situations like this, whether it is two pairs or sets that knock it out.