$ NL HE MTT: CC Weekly 300

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Freeroll

1. Freeroll

Currency

$

CO 63 hands: VPIP 40 PFR 31 Limp 0 and 3-bet 16

What do you guys do here?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 - 9 players


UTG: 4,913 (49 bb)
UTG+1: 2,468 (25 bb)
MP: 6,175 (62 bb)
MP+1: 4,868 (49 bb)
LP (Hero): 3,174 (32 bb)
CO: 3,153 (32 bb)
BU: 2,355 (24 bb)
SB: 6,429 (64 bb)
BB: 7,558 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: (150) Hero is LP with 9♠ 9♣
4 players fold, Hero raises to 250, CO 3-bets to 800, 3 players fold, Hero calls 550

Flop: (1,750) 7♣ 6♥ 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 2,353 (all-in), Hero ?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open. Against someone with LAG-stats like this I am definitely not folding 99 to his 3-bet. Given that stacks are fairly short, and you are out of position, my preferred play is to 4-bet shove. The reason is, 99 will often face overcards on the flop, and then its difficult for you to continue and easy for him to bluff. But calling certainly beats folding.

Flop
As played I beat him into the pot. Even if you are behind to a set or a better overpair, you have 8 outs to a straight and 2 to a set, which is loads of equity. He could have a straight already, but thats kind of unlikely, since he 3-bet pre, and you also block half the possible combos of T9s.

 

[feisas7991]

fold pre. seems like he is commiting to stack off there.
as played yolo otf as we put enough chips into the pot where we are commitd to some degree. There is a chance that he jams his entire range otf and you crushing some of his broadway bluffs
Hope this helps and Good Luck!

 

[rastapapolos]

With this 3-bet stat from villain it's a 4-bet shove preflop.
Flop: this is a good board for 99, I'm calling since I have 38% equity vs AA and there are some bluffs in villain range. so this is almost a 50-50 spot.

 

[ObbleeXY]

honestly, I think the fold and the four bet shove are both reasonable options that require more info on the the plays this dude is making in those sixty-odd hands, before I could be certain what I'd do. I will be doing either of these with some regularity. What I WOULDN'T DO HERE IS FLAT CALL.
But also, I have to say, neither option is a "I'd do this 100% of the time" kind of action.

If I'd played 63 hands with someone, I'd have more confidence on what sort of range this guy is playing and what his tendencies are with the three=bets.
If three-bet bluff is on his toolboax...shove.
His VPIP is high, so he's game for anything pre-fl;op probably...but the flop is decent for 99. Blocked gutshot. Open ended draw. couple outs for the set...
But I'd be reviewing my hand histories / PT4 to see what this guy tends to do.

In the end, I wouldn't feel too bad if I four bet shoved and he tuirned over, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Race from behind with circa 10 outs...not super terrible.
But if he's sitting there with AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ...you've got a decent race to survive.

So in my view, you have options and none of them are wrong (except the flat call).

 

[fundiver199]

Just a few additional words about the HUD-stats for people, who are less familiar with how to enterpret such data. 3-bet stats generally require much more than 63 hands to become accurate. So the 16% 3-bet is not all that important in itself. But when it is backed up with a VPIP of 40 and a PFR of 31, the total picture is one of a player, which is very loose and aggressive preflop. And this is why, we just cant fold 99 to his 3-bet after opening from from HJ.

There is also the factor, that this is a freeroll, where we should at least to some extend apply a "go strong or go home" approach. Presumably Hero have just about starting chips (3.000) here, and really there is no point in just trying to limp our way into a min-cash. This is a fine spot to potentially dubble up, and if the maniac happens to have it this time, we are still left with nothing less, than we started with, and we can spend our time on something else. So jamming here only to get called by KK and lose, is anything but the end of the world.

 

[ObbleeXY]

Just a few additional words about the HUD-stats for people, who are less familiar with how to enterpret such data. 3-bet stats generally require much more than 63 hands to become accurate. So the 16% 3-bet is not all that important in itself. But when it is backed up with a VPIP of 40 and a PFR of 31, the total picture is one of a player, which is very loose and aggressive preflop. And this is why, we just cant fold 99 to his 3-bet after opening from from HJ.

There is also the factor, that this is a freeroll, where we should at least to some extend apply a "go strong or go home" approach. Presumably Hero have just about starting chips (3.000) here, and really there is no point in just trying to limp our way into a min-cash. This is a fine spot to potentially dubble up, and if the maniac happens to have it this time, we are still left with nothing less, than we started with, and we can spend our time on something else. So jamming here only to get called by KK and lose, is anything but the end of the world.

Yes mostly...

You're right that the sample size is too small to have a tonne of confidence in the numbers.
Villain might have been on a heater.... Or he might actually be someone who plays every hand but sat out for a bunch so it looks less loose than it is.

that said, I think in low stakes poker, you can get a decent read from 50+ hands. Generally, this is ehnough for me to label someone a NIT, TAG, LAG or Fish. I'm not saying that label is nailed down by any means...but it is sufficient to use the available information to make current decisions.

This is especially so at the freeroll/micro levels where people don't have a lot of creativity and variety to their play.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

Preflop: Calling is fine, but actually just getting it in with 99 is more profitable, especially against lag-ier opponents.

Flop: I'm just getting it in here. Sure, sometimes you're going to be up against TT+, or very rarely 66, 77 or 88, but more often you're going to up against 2 overs and getting them to fold is a massive win for 99. When we're behind, we're never far behind unless villain somehow has T9s.

 

[fundiver199]

that said, I think in low stakes poker, you can get a decent read from 50+ hands. Generally, this is ehnough for me to label someone a NIT, TAG, LAG or Fish. I'm not saying that label is nailed down by any means...but it is sufficient to use the available information to make current decisions.

Absolutely. 50 hands is enough to get a decent idea about VPIP and PFR, since these happen almost every hand, and this is, what we mainly use to identify player type. I start applying labels to people after 20 hands, and if their VPIP is extremely high even earlier than that (fish). As you say, they are then not set in stone, and I regularly change a label later.

My point was just, that 3-bet of 16% after 63 hands should not be taken to literally in itself. If for instance the numbers are VPIP 18 / PFR 15 / 3-bet 16, then its far more likely, the player is a TAG, who picked up some good 3-betting hands over a small sample, rather than a 3-betting maniac. And we should basically just defend with our standard range. But in this situation, where VPIP and PFR are also much to high for a ring game, its definitely fine to defend a bit wider, and 99 would also be a defend against an unknown.

 

[mariussica88]

I also think that here I have to shove. Even if I am against a better overpair I still have a lot of outs.

Here is the full hand:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 4,913 (49 bb)
UTG+1: 2,468 (25 bb)
MP: 6,175 (62 bb)
MP+1: 4,868 (49 bb)
LP (Hero): 3,174 (32 bb)
CO: 3,153 (32 bb)
BU: 2,355 (24 bb)
SB: 6,429 (64 bb)
BB: 7,558 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: (150) Hero is LP with 9♠ 9♣
4 players fold, Hero raises to 250, CO 3-bets to 800, 3 players fold, Hero calls 550

Flop: (1,750) 7♣ 6♥ 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 2,353 (all-in), Hero calls 2,353

Turn: (6,456) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (6,456) K♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 6,456

Showdown:
CO shows T♠ T♥ (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

LP (Hero) shows 9♠ 9♣ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

CO wins 6,456

Here I think that I was unlucky to not hit one of my outs. No matter we move to the next one.

 

[rock0001]

i would probably have also called because even if villain has a bigger pair or a set you still have almost 40% of chances to win the hand so thats good enough to make the call.

 

[fundiver199]

TT was one of the worst hands to be against, since you only had 6 outs, whereas you would have had 10 outs against JJ+. So just a big unlucky, and of course even the biggest maniac will sometimes have TT+. It just is, what it is.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

I also think that here I have to shove. Even if I am against a better overpair I still have a lot of outs.

Here is the full hand:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 4,913 (49 bb)
UTG+1: 2,468 (25 bb)
MP: 6,175 (62 bb)
MP+1: 4,868 (49 bb)
LP (Hero): 3,174 (32 bb)
CO: 3,153 (32 bb)
BU: 2,355 (24 bb)
SB: 6,429 (64 bb)
BB: 7,558 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: (150) Hero is LP with 9♠ 9♣
4 players fold, Hero raises to 250, CO 3-bets to 800, 3 players fold, Hero calls 550

Flop: (1,750) 7♣ 6♥ 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 2,353 (all-in), Hero calls 2,353

Turn: (6,456) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (6,456) K♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 6,456

Showdown:
CO shows T♠ T♥ (a pair of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

LP (Hero) shows 9♠ 9♣ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

CO wins 6,456

Here I think that I was unlucky to not hit one of my outs. No matter we move to the next one.

This is just a cooler. Pretty gross to have 99 vs TT with that flop. You're just destined to go broke here.