MTT Bubble hand

zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
$50+10 buyin, 1 rebuy allowed. 2000 starting chips, average chips is just over 20k. blinds are up to 300/600, 50 ante.
around 300 people entered, down to last 3 tables (29 players), 27th is in the money.

I'm BB with around 35k in chips, 3rd for the table, I've been seeing 1 or 2 flops per orbit for about 4 orbits now, all top 10 or other PP hands.
MP has 29K and is TAG (2 hands in last 4 orbits, AKs and QQ)
CO has over 50k, chip leader for the table, and has been stealing a lot of PF and being a general bully.

deal comes [ks][kc]

MP raises to 1500, CO calls, I re-raise to 5000, MP re-reraises to 15k, CO goes all-in.

Do I call all-in here or just fold and go kill somebody for the bad luck?
I really don't want to go all-in right on the bubble, but it's KK! I know MP is going to play (chip committed), and he didn't 3-raise even when he had QQ, so I'm thinking there's a decent chance he has either KK (tie) or AA (I get spanked). With a smaller pair, I'm fairly certain he would have just called me and hoped for the set. And I can't place CO on a hand (I give him a range of AK, AQs or 1010 or better pair).

what to do, what to do....
 
S

soonerdawg

Rising Star
go all in here. you're up against a tight player and a loose aggressive player. the tight player only showed A/KS and pocket queens in earlier hands, while the other player could have anything. what are the odds that you are beat at this point? i would not be too concerned about pocket Aces -- they come along about as often as kings.

my main concern would be to come against any ace. A/x suited always sucks against kings, and chances are one of the 2 has an ace. i always try to win the tourney -- screw finishing in 27thg place and making a couple of bucks for several hours of play. this is a great chance to build your stack, and about the only thing here that can beat your kings is an ace spiking -- unless you are up against rockets. i would definitely put all my chips in here and pray that no one picks up an ace or 2 pair.
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
I think I like folding here for several reasons.

First, if they've been watching you play (as MP probably has since he is TAG), then your reraise should have meant something. While the CO just called in front of you, your TAG friend in MP reraises again totally disregarding your reraise. This should mean bad news for you. If he's weaker that than then kudos for being aware of and playing his table image. But like the old saying goes, the 2nd and 3rd raises mean aces or kings.

Second, the CO, in the face of all this (after just flat calling the initial raise) is now pushing? WTF? If he has any idea that MP has pretty much committed himself to this, then CO must have a hand to speak of. Even if he's playing AK, an A would spell disaster since he has both of you covered. But of course, at least you'd finish exactly on the bubble if no one from another table busted out....ouch.

Third, you are not committed. It isn't a cheap laydown, but in face of the action, you only lose 5K. You still have 30K (an M of like 25) to do battle with, so you are not in any bad situation here.

People say that you should play to win, not just to cash, but the reality is that you won't do either if you simply ignore the screaming signs saying you need to fold KK at this point. And you can't win a tournament if you don't even make it to the money. So while you should play to win the whole thing, it's still a matter of playing smart.

Anyway, that's my take on it.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
$50+10 buyin

oh my god :(

Anyway, call, play to win, basically the opposite of what JD said. :)

First thing is we should only be really scared of MP here. CO *could* have AA here, but his play is more consistent with a lower pair or some other marginal hand that he (unwisely) is just trying to throw everyone else away from their hands with.

MP's smallish raise and smallish 3-raise scare me though, but QQ/JJ are certainly possible (I consider AK unlikely as he would probably just shove somewhere down the line preflop with AK here). Add to that the fact that we (albeit not hugely) have MP covered and we have the second best hand in the game, means I absolutely cannot find a fold here.

If this was a 1 or 2-table SNG bubble (which of course is impossible with such deep stacks, but just imagine), we can fold KK here because 'cashing' becomes more important, but in a reasonable sized tourney with prizes structured towards the final table and top few finishers I can't justify folding at all.
 
Vintage82

Vintage82

Guest
That sucks big time.

CO is caught in a squeeze play and pushes. Possibly indicating strength, but possibly trying to drive one of you out. You did mention he had started to bully, but I've sure he has a little something here possibly 88-JJ.

If MP hadnt 3-bet previous with QQ, I'm pretty sure he's got 1 of the 2 bigger hands, unless he's changed gears to combat the CO. Either way, as JD explained, you could end up out on the bubble if you do go all-in & lose to both.

Your winning chances are severely reduced if MP calls all-in too, and I think its too important to survive here, rather than call against 2 players showing strength.

I fold, grudingly. I then cry when the KK (would of) held up.:mad:
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
My thought here is that you are most likely up against AKs from MP and 88-JJ from CO. The only hand you are behind is AA and it just seems too unlikely considering the situation (this is live right? If it was online, guaranteed someone has AA ;)). I say push here. Although you will feel like a tool if MP or CO turns over AA, that's simply bad luck. If it's anything less than that 1 hand, you will be kicking yourself you didn't call.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
ACTAETKCEATKCETTAECTKETKECEAHTKKHECATK

I hate wireless and it's tendency to disconnect right as I'm writing a post so that it deletes it all :mad:

Anyways to make a long post short, call because we're in great shape vs. CO, and even if MP has us beat we'll still have a fairly healthy chip stack since we have him covered. You really can't be so paranoid about MP's raise that you automatically pin him on AA.

Push push push and ~triple up.
 
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