Mid/Late in Tourney, AJ in CO

Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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Let me have your thoughts on this one folks:

This is a rebuy. Started with ~80 players. Top 10 get paid. It`s around two hours in, there are about 30 players left. I`ve been running pretty cold and the stack isn`t looking too good.


Table 161831338
Tournament: $1,500 Guarantee
Seat 1: monkeygal2 ($13,300.00 in chips)
Seat 2: willybonbilly ($20,747.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Morfeous ($26,960.00 in chips)
Seat 4: PETRINA ($27,890.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Egon Towst ($11,325.00 in chips)
Seat 6: leeleeleelee ($820.00 in chips)
Seat 8: trevex1 ($8,540.00 in chips)
Seat 9: sweepy1975 ($28,570.00 in chips)
Seat 10: CHINADOLL001 ($16,850.00 in chips)
trevex1: Post SB $300.00
sweepy1975: Post BB $600.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Egon Towst :jd4: :ah4:
CHINADOLL001: Fold
monkeygal2: Fold
willybonbilly: Fold
Morfeous: Fold
PETRINA: Call $600.00

Petrina is a regular opponent and a useful player. We have been at the FT of this same tournament together at least once. She is LAGgy, around 37% VPIP.

What`s our best move ?
 
S93

S93

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i whould bumb it up 3-4BB and hope to end the hand right there, if she calls she´s probly got some kind of low/med PP playing for set value or some kind of suited conectors
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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I would also bet 3xBB but then again that is along my style of how I would normally bet a strong ace.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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basically: in position = raise
out of position = call/check
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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i whould bumb it up 3-4BB

I would also bet 3xBB

basically: in position = raise

That`s unanimous then. :)

I agree. I am vaguely aware that Petrina`s pre-flop limp is a bit unexpected, but a raise here seems standard.

So we continue:


Egon Towst: Bet $2,400.00
leeleeleelee: Allin $820.00
trevex1: Fold
sweepy1975: Fold
PETRINA: Call $1,800.00



:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Now I am puzzled. Lee`s move is largely irrelevant, because he is so short-stacked, but I am struggling to put the real opponent, Petrina, on a hand here.

She is an aggressive player. First in from Late Position pre-flop, her raising range must be pretty close to any two cards, and yet she just limped, which suggests weakness.

But then, she called my raise out of position.

Question: What hand or range of hands do you put Petrina on here ?
 
S93

S93

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Im gonna stick with my original thought of some kind of pp or suited conectors but then again u are posting so maby she had a monster and whas traping but as playt this screams 55-66-77-67-109 ect. she haves a drawing hands trying to hit big.
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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Im gonna stick with my original thought of some kind of pp or suited conectors but then again u are posting so maby she had a monster and whas traping but as playt this screams 55-66-77-67-109 ect. she haves a drawing hands trying to hit big.


Possibly, but don`t you think she would raise pre-flop if she had a pair ?

Or, if she had connectors, say 67, do you think she would call a raise for nearly a tenth of her stack with such a weak drawing hand, when the raiser has position on her ?
 
S93

S93

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Well since u say she is a LAGish player i cant really see any thing else maby some kind of Ax or KJ hand but nothing bigger then that exsept if she is a very tricky player.
But thats just me i whould wait for some on else to give u better analyse befor posting reasults
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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Looks like it`s just you and me, Sindri. Nobody else seems to be interested. :(

Oh well. Here`s the flop (and a recap of the hand to date):



Table 161831338
Tournament: $1,500 Guarantee
Seat 1: monkeygal2 ($13,300.00 in chips)
Seat 2: willybonbilly ($20,747.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Morfeous ($26,960.00 in chips)
Seat 4: PETRINA ($27,890.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Egon Towst ($11,325.00 in chips)
Seat 6: leeleeleelee ($820.00 in chips)
Seat 8: trevex1 ($8,540.00 in chips)
Seat 9: sweepy1975 ($28,570.00 in chips)
Seat 10: CHINADOLL001 ($16,850.00 in chips)
trevex1: Post SB $300.00
sweepy1975: Post BB $600.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Egon Towst :jd4: :ah4:
CHINADOLL001: Fold
monkeygal2: Fold
willybonbilly: Fold
Morfeous: Fold
PETRINA: Call $600.00
Egon Towst: Bet $2,400.00
leeleeleelee: Allin $820.00
trevex1: Fold
sweepy1975: Fold
PETRINA: Call $1,800.00
*** FLOP *** :10d4: :2s4: :5s4:
PETRINA: Bet $6,520.00


Petrina overbets the pot. :eek:

How should we respond ?
 
S93

S93

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Kinda strange play she leads out in to the pre-flop raiser if she had hit big whouldnt she have tryed to check raise u? If seen play like this from people with medium pp against me so maby she have 88-99 and is hoping to pick up the pot and thinking the 10 didint hit u.
But right now were behind most of her range,how much thou is unclear hands like A10,semi bluffing spade draw,set(strange line for a set) or the medium pp trying to take it down on a safe-ish board.
Only thing u can do is fold or re-raise and try to steal the pot i dont see how calling whould be profitable since even if a A or J hits we have no idea where we stand.
Knowing she is lagish player i might re-raise sometimes and try to pick it up BUT if u do she gets to know u bluffed her of because of the all-in guy makeing it harder to bluff later pots(witch could be good if u pick up good hands).
All that sayt im folding here where not picking up this pot exept the if the turn/river improves are hand or if we bluff her of and then she will know whe where bluffing and that could hurt are creatid down the line.
 
bluesboy47

bluesboy47

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Its possible that she has A-rag possibly A-2 0r A-5 is reading that you have 2 over cards and didn't hit the folp and is trying to make it difficult for you to call with only 2 mor cards available.

The A-rag would also why she limped in to begin with. She also has twice the chips that you do so she might feel that she can bully you and afford to take a chance with A-rag
 
soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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this is where I muck and hate myself afterwards for not having the balls (can I say that? lol) to push.

It looks to me like 88 wanting to take the pot down immediately
 
soccerfreakjj10

soccerfreakjj10

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basically: in position = raise
out of position = call/check

vanquish i don't understand this, my strategy is the exact opposite.

play the hand out when you are in position and end it quickly with a raise/become the aggressor with a raise when you are out of position.
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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Its possible that she has A-rag possibly A-2 0r A-5 is reading that you have 2 over cards and didn't hit the folp and is trying to make it difficult for you to call with only 2 mor cards available.

The A-rag would also why she limped in to begin with. She also has twice the chips that you do so she might feel that she can bully you and afford to take a chance with A-rag

^^ after a good deal of head scratching, this was pretty much my reading of it.

As Sindri says, if she hit big, why wouldn`t she check-raise ? She has to know that I will bet if she checks to me. Looks to me like she is trying to buy it.

this is where I muck and hate myself afterwards for not having the balls (can I say that? lol) to push.

^^ I was very tempted to muck, but reluctantly decided I did have the balls.

And the rest of the hand went like this:



Egon Towst: Allin $8,925.00
PETRINA: Call $2,405.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
leeleeleelee shows :2d4: :qd4:
Egon Towst shows :jd4: :ah4:
PETRINA shows :9c4: :10c4:
*** TURN *** :8s4:
*** RIVER *** :2h4:
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $24,370.00 Rake $0.00
PETRINA: wins $21,010.00
leeleeleelee: wins $3,360.00




which was the end of my tournament. :(

I guess the lesson to be learned is not to be over-confident in one`s reads online. I did not seriously weigh the possibility that Petrina would have T9s, because I assumed she would not have played that hand that way. However, Sindri mentioned the possibility early in this thread.

I fooled myself into going all-in when I was 25/75 underdog - a pretty lousy decision.

One of the problems with online play is that you can`t see what the opponent is doing and cannot now how focused they are. To my mind, Petrina played this one uncharacteristically. I wonder now if she might have had some tough decision going on at another table at the same time, or conceivably she might have been taking a phone call or something. I guess we will never know.

Oh well, another day another tourney. :)
 
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S93

S93

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Im gonna stick with my original thought of some kind of pp or suited conectors but then again u are posting so maby she had a monster and whas traping but as playt this screams 55-66-77-67-109 ect. she haves a drawing hands trying to hit big.

Im happy with my guess but its still a very strangly played out hand,u where right about her not having a hand but her non hand still beat u :(.
Im also shocked:eek: by her call u dont play suited conectors to get top par terrible kicker and then call a all-in with em(atleast i dont).
Nice job thou having the balls to go for it, like soccerfreak sayed u often kick your self when u know your opponion is holding crap and u cant make a move at them.
 
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Table 161831338
Tournament: $1,500 Guarantee
Seat 1: monkeygal2 ($13,300.00 in chips)
Seat 2: willybonbilly ($20,747.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Morfeous ($26,960.00 in chips)
Seat 4: PETRINA ($27,890.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Egon Towst ($11,325.00 in chips)
Seat 6: leeleeleelee ($820.00 in chips)
Seat 8: trevex1 ($8,540.00 in chips)
Seat 9: sweepy1975 ($28,570.00 in chips)
Seat 10: CHINADOLL001 ($16,850.00 in chips)
trevex1: Post SB $300.00
sweepy1975: Post BB $600.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Egon Towst :jd4: :ah4:
CHINADOLL001: Fold
monkeygal2: Fold
willybonbilly: Fold
Morfeous: Fold
PETRINA: Call $600.00
...You say she is agressive in LP, so we can assume her raising range is pretty wide. Ax, any PP, any face cards, suited connectors, etc are all being raised PF. A limp here does seem pretty strange, so its probably safe to assume she doesnt have a strong hand, but being a loose player, Im not surprised at her open-limping in LP. Its possible that she noticed the SS and was looking to just limp in and probably isolate the all-in with the BB, call the 220 more (great odds) and then just check down to try knock off a player. She probably didnt have a hand strong enough to raise and go 1-on-1 with the SS. Or maybe she just feels like limping in and trying to hit gold...who knows?
Egon Towst: Bet $2,400.00
...Standard raise with strong hand. I wonder if you took into consideration the SS going all in and the odds Petrina was getting to call? Even BB was getting 2.6:1 to call, if that happened Petrina's odds increase even more to call with ATC she limped with. I might've bumped it up a bit more here since pot is at 1500 and to isolate with SS (if he decides to shove).
leeleeleelee: Allin $820.00
trevex1: Fold
sweepy1975: Fold
PETRINA: Call $1,800.00
...After your raise and the all in, Petrina is getting abotu 2.6:1 odds on her money to call with ATC. Not only that, but she closes the betting and there is a chance to knock off a player. I dont see this call as being too bad.

*** FLOP *** :10d4: :2s4: :5s4:
PETRINA: Bet $6,520.00
...I think here, she probably has you on overcards that probably missed the board. And if she is correct a pot size bet is likely to get you off of your hand. Even if Lee has Petrina beat at this point, if she can get you to fold your over cards, she picks up your dead money, but its very unlikely Lee has her beat with this board. At this point, I'd her credit for at least hitting a piece of that board and really consider folding my hand since Im probably drawing to 6 outs.
Egon Towst: Allin $8,925.00
...I dont like shoving here because A) Petrina's bet is showing strength. She knows she probably has Lee beat at this point and she probably has you as missing the flop. Its definitely not a feeler bet to see where she is at, she definitely wants this pot. B) She has committed herself this pot, so any raise you make, she is calling. There is no way to get her off her hand, now. I say give her credit for connecting with the flop and fold the hand here.
PETRINA: Call $2,405.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
leeleeleelee shows :2d4: :qd4:
Egon Towst shows :jd4: :ah4:
PETRINA shows :9c4: :10c4:
*** TURN *** :8s4:
*** RIVER *** :2h4:
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $24,370.00 Rake $0.00
PETRINA: wins $21,010.00
leeleeleelee: wins $3,360.00
Above.
 
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widowmaker89

widowmaker89

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I agree, with what many have already said, I dont see what pushing here accomplishes. What hands are you beating that is in her range? She is calling your all in with any two cards here since she will be getting 10:1. This is one of those times you gotta muck. Your hand looked pretty preflop with only a limp from a LAG but you cant fall in love with it after a missed flop and a bet that more or less puts you all in.
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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Tough analysis, guys, but interesting. I be a donk. :eek:

Phil`s observation:

...Standard raise with strong hand. I wonder if you took into consideration the SS going all in and the odds Petrina was getting to call? Even BB was getting 2.6:1 to call, if that happened Petrina's odds increase even more to call with ATC she limped with. I might've bumped it up a bit more here since pot is at 1500 and to isolate with SS (if he decides to shove).

is a good thought.
 
S93

S93

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Tough analysis, guys, but interesting. I be a donk. :eek:
The first step in dealing with a problem is excepting u have one :p .

But seriesuly if she whould have folded that whould have been a great brave aggresive play and if she called it whould be a "Donk move".
Its funny that way,i guess its a thin line from a donk to a top notch aggresive player
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

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You`re right there, Sindri.

In the later stages of a tourney, inexperienced players get scared of the size of the blinds and/or worry about bubbling, and they tighten up. That is the time to ramp up the aggression.

As you rightly say, if it works and you hit the FT, you`re a hero. But, if you stick your neck out a little too far and get it chopped off, you`re a zero.
 
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S93

S93

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You`re right there, Sindri.

In the later stages of a tourney, inexperienced players get scared of the size of the blinds are worry about bubbling, and they tighten up. That is the time to ramp up the aggression.

As you rightly say, if it works and you hit the FT, you`re a hero. But, if you stick your neck out a little too far and get it chopped off, you`re a zero.

Probly the best exsample(spelling?) of that is the Jaime Gold wsop,he got in to probly 50 situations like that and won every on of them but Joe nobody two tables down making the same play will never be in the history books
 
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