Medium overpair on the flop

Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Late stages of a $3 Multi-table tourney. About 6 tables left from 1400 or so entrants and we're in the money. I'm Yeti27 and have held the tourney chip lead or been in the top 5 for a while.
Opponent in this hand (farmatsys) has joined the table 5 hands earlier so don't have much of a read on him, except he seems to be playing aggressively and has doubled up on the previous hand after donkeyly (is that a word?) moving all-in on a raiser pre-flop with KQo, and getting called by the raiser who has AA and then fluking a flush to double up. Think I know the textbook answer, but what would you do here:

***** Hand History for Game 4458079978 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:24591853 Level:14 Blinds-Antes(3000/6000-100) - Tuesday, June 06, 23:45:51 ET 2006
Table Regular(718624) Table #3 (real money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: c1anim8tor ( $6963 )
Seat 6: three333333 ( $126996 )
Seat 7: drwhite4 ( $5109 )
Seat 9: Yeti27 ( $173615 )
Seat 1: willydee111 ( $70329 )
Seat 3: MR_RBP ( $84981 )
Seat 10: bigpotbubbaj ( $59273 )
Seat 2: jaguar_88 ( $23500 )
Seat 5: topbass33 ( $94831 )
Seat 8: farmatys ( $177276 )
Trny:24591853 Level:14
Blinds-Antes(3000/6000-100)
willydee111 posts ante [100].
jaguar_88 posts ante [100].
MR_RBP posts ante [100].
c1anim8tor posts ante [100].
topbass33 posts ante [100].
three333333 posts ante [100].
drwhite4 posts ante [100].
farmatys posts ante [100].
Yeti27 posts ante [100].
bigpotbubbaj posts ante [100].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Yeti27 [ 9s 9c ]
Yeti27: ooh nasty
MR_RBP calls [6000].
farmatys: thats wrong
MR_RBP: that's just wrong
c1anim8tor folds.
topbass33 folds.
three333333 folds.
drwhite4 folds.
farmatys raises [12000].
Yeti27 calls [12000].
bigpotbubbaj folds.
willydee111 folds.
jaguar_88 folds.
MR_RBP calls [6000].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 8s, 7d ]
MR_RBP checks.
farmatys bets [74218].
Yeti27 ..........
 
t1riel

t1riel

Legend
Raise preflop and big bet on the flop tells me two things. One, he has A,K or A, Q so you are still in great shape. Two, he has pocket Kings or Aces so you are in bad shape. It will costs you a little less than half your stack plus you have to worry about the other opponent who checked. He is the big stack so he could be playing aggressively. It's a tough decision but I would have to call in this situation. Even if you lose, you still have a good amount of chips left.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Well it's definitely a raise or fold situation, and seeing how he is super-aggressive (re KQ hand), aswell as his massive overbet on the flop, I'm thinking you're probably ahead.
I think it's a call based on your read on him. I could go either way with either being safe and folding, or raising him for the rest of his chips because you're probably ahead. Who knows, maybe he's got A8 or something.

p.s. I'd reraise his dinky little minraise PF here. Knowing that he's an agg. player, I don't want to smooth call and have to deal with overcards on the board. What happens if the flop were to come QT5? He's probably betting the same amount into you, and you really can't call. Just my opinion.
 
Effexor

Effexor

Cardschat Elite
My guess would be he's got 2 overs with a flush draw, but wants to take the pot right then and there and not have to hit the draw. Or he might be a donk playing an A8, and thinks TPTK is the golden ticket.

I'd play it safe and fold, if nothing else to just get some time to get a better read on his play style. Although in 5 hands if he's gone all in, then now made that huge bet he's probably a loose maniac. You've got a lot of chips to be able to take some time and pick your spots and beat on some of the small stacks.

I do think you are ahead atm but I'd fold, not worth the risk. It sure looks to me like the next bet from him would be all in if you did just call.
 
Vintage82

Vintage82

Guest
Definately a push or fold, depending on how you read him. I'm not playing for anything but 1st spot so I push, and try to take the 100k in the pot.
 
poettic1

poettic1

Guest
i fold. i can't see it worth that much money to win that little. if you beleive you are 50/50 or better go for it. but i think the guy obviously doesn't understand betting, and will over step again later when you have a better hand.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

Cardschat Elite
ChuckTs said:
Well it's definitely a raise or fold situation, and seeing how he is super-aggressive (re KQ hand), aswell as his massive overbet on the flop, I'm thinking you're probably ahead.
I think it's a call based on your read on him. I could go either way with either being safe and folding, or raising him for the rest of his chips because you're probably ahead. Who knows, maybe he's got A8 or something.
It's definately raise or fold, so you'd, mmmmmm, call? :confused:

You cant call, seriously? If you call, the pot is 180K and you'd both have 80K ish left (Tim, you cant say "if you lose you've still got a nice stack" - there's another round of betting still to come). If he goes all-in on the river are you going to fold now?

If the 99 was good enough to call 12K with, it's good enough to go all-in with. You've got a perfect flop there - what were you looking for when you called? You should have either folded or raised pre-flop.
 
zinzan1000

zinzan1000

Legend
Chuck means its a decision based on your read on him, when he says its a call based on your read on him.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Agree the pre-flop call was a bit weak but even with a big stack, a re-raise would have committed more chips than I wanted (and 99 isn't *that* good a hand) - so should probably have folded right there. Anyway, here's the end of the story:

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 8s, 7d ]
MR_RBP checks.
farmatys bets [74218].
Yeti27 is all-In.
MR_RBP: KQ again??
MR_RBP folds.
farmatys calls [87297].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
farmatys shows [ Jc, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
Yeti27 shows [ 9s, 9c ] a pair of nines.
farmatys wins 369030 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.
Player Yeti27 finished in 57 place and received $11.89

Not sure what he put me on (acid probably) - anyway, will have to remember to stay away from the other big stacks unless I have a cast-iron hand in future. Could easily have made final table so was a total donkey-play by me. :(
 
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