Late in $5 MTT Straight on the turn..

[jayneseo]

Villian is tight, I'm kinda tight but have loosened up over the past 10 hands or so.


pokerstars Game #9858926876: Tournament #49447496, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/05/11 - 14:39:19 (ET)
Table '49447496 31' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: jjjjrjr (7860 in chips)
Seat 2: jayneseo (7523 in chips)
Seat 3: SkyAerial (8860 in chips)
Seat 4: golez (4610 in chips)
Seat 5: Ender2much (4535 in chips)
Seat 6: gtslim (1795 in chips)
Seat 7: Pytagora (2015 in chips)
Seat 8: vegassteve7 (11385 in chips)
Seat 9: golden lion (1205 in chips)
jjjjrjr: posts the ante 25
jayneseo: posts the ante 25
SkyAerial: posts the ante 25
golez: posts the ante 25
Ender2much: posts the ante 25
gtslim: posts the ante 25
Pytagora: posts the ante 25
vegassteve7: posts the ante 25
golden lion: posts the ante 25
Ender2much: posts small blind 100
gtslim: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jayneseo [7d 8d]
Pytagora: folds
vegassteve7: folds
golden lion: folds
jjjjrjr: folds
jayneseo: calls 200
SkyAerial: folds
golez: calls 200
Ender2much: calls 100
gtslim: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kh 9d Ts]
Ender2much: bets 200
gtslim: folds
jayneseo: calls 200
golez: folds
*** TURN *** [Kh 9d Ts] [6c]
Ender2much: checks
jayneseo:????

Do I check to induce a bluff or bet out?

 

[Shandy]

Hi
Personally i would bet out, around 800, because if a J or Q hits on the river, your not going to be comfortable value betting the river, or calling a large bet if he were to bet out on the river when a J or Q hit. At the moment only JQ is beating you, and i think you should find out if this is his holding if you bet 800, as he will more than likely raise you, and then you can decide from there.
shandy

 

[calibanboy]

I think you need to answer the following question first....

What hands do you put him on

Bear in mind
- he made up the SB to BB Pre flop.
- he bet 1/4 pot on the flop when first to act after there had been four limpers. ( what hands might you do this with?)
- He checks the turn after it is an "innocent" looking one.

So what type of hand do you think he most likely has?

Once you have figured this out it will help you decide what to do next.

Another way to look at this is

a) what will he call with?
b) what will he raise with
c) what will he fold to any bet when there is not Flush draw and the only straights are two gappers

Lots of questions.....

Me - I think I would put him on Nothing or 1 pair. Therefore he will fold a biggish bet. I would check and induce the bluff on the river. It makes you look weak. I agree the Q or J are worry cards - a risk I will take. Your hand is disguised, a bet now is likely to frighten him off. I think you need him to catch up a little ( trips/2 pair) - or think that he is ahead.

He may have the nuts - so be it - you will likely pay him off either way if thats the case.

 

[joeeagles]

Yes Shandy, QJ is beating him but I strongly doubt he has it with the betting pattern he has shown, although still possible, depending on how tricky he is.

We have to think his hand is best here until reasonable doubt. It's hard to know what the right thing to do is to get value. You hate to give a free street but there is the danger of you losing him if you bet big, particularly if he has a weak K. He entered this pot limping from the SB, it very hard to put him on a range, but the weak K sounds very possible. If that's the case and being that he is tight, I doubt you can induce a bluff on the river if his hand doesn't improve. He will likely check again.

I would go with a small bet and see what happens. Pot is 1225, bet out 400.

But I won't argue checking either, it's tough to find the way to get value.

 

[joosebuck]

dont open limp dude

 

[NineLions]

dont open limp dude

So sayeth TRex.


I would agree that QJ doesn't seem likely. The flop bet looks like a bet to see if anyone else has QJ, and the checked turn an indication he has 1 pair at best, maybe even nothing. If it's a slowplayed QJ, I would expect at least the same bet on the turn as the flop since you were willing to call it the first time.

I don't think this is a WA/WB situation as the WB seems pretty unlikely so either 1) small bet at the turn, which if he doesn't call he might feel foolish as it might seem obvious that he bet at the flop with nothing, or 2) pretend to bluff the river to induce a call.

 

[jayneseo]

I bet out 600 and he folded. Seems like a weak attempt to steal it on the flop.

 

[calibanboy]

I bet out 600 and he folded. Seems like a weak attempt to steal it on the flop.

I think thats why I would have checked- to allow him to catch up a little or believe that you were drawing too.