KK on paired board vs push; $16 turbo STT

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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First game in a while; I was multitabling, so the only reads I had were my PT stats (54/11/0.2).
I was playing TAG as usual at this point, and had doubled up earlier with AA vs top pair.

pokerstars GAME #10546340322: TOURNAMENT #53425917, $15+$1 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL III (25/50) - 2007/06/21 - 12:50:13 (ET)
Table '53425917 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: dragonfly112 (2895 in chips)
Seat 3: mlokke (1760 in chips)
Seat 4: onlyagolfer (3220 in chips)
Seat 5: Bergali (1260 in chips)
Seat 7: ChuckTs (2860 in chips)
Seat 8: joeb604 (1505 in chips)
ChuckTs: posts small blind 25
joeb604: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ks Kc]
dragonfly112: folds
mlokke: calls 50
onlyagolfer: calls 50
Bergali: folds
ChuckTs: raises 250 to 300
joeb604: folds
mlokke: folds
onlyagolfer: calls 250
*** FLOP *** [5h Td 7s]
ChuckTs: bets 300
onlyagolfer: calls 300
*** TURN *** [5h Td 7s] [Th]
ChuckTs: bets 700
onlyagolfer: raises 1920 to 2620 and is all-in
ChuckTs: ...
 
S

Shandy

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Has to be a fold, you have to believe that you are drawing to 2 outs, their stats seem pretty loose so they will call a preflop raise with A10, K10, Q10s, 10Js. Although I am not overly familiar with the stats, their aggression factor (is that right) looks pretty low, so i don't see them doing this with anything but a 10, i think an overpair reraises on the flop, and i doubt an underpair has it in them to do this. So personally i would fold, if he shows air or 8h9h, kick yourself, and make a note. You ar still left with about 1500 chips, so still plenty of room to play, at these blind levels.
 
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Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Eh, we're getting decent odds but is someone with a 0.2 AF really going to be overvaluing something like A7 or a turned flush draw enough to shove here? His range is pretty wide until we get to the turn shove - then we can look at it from the point of view that it's entirely feasible he limp-called preflop with something like QT, called on an uncoordinated flop with TPQK (although it's arguable looking at his numbers that he doesn't know what an uncoordinated flop is) and is now only shoving because he's 'sure' it's good, as per his low AF.

Obviously there's a chance he's on a turned flush draw or has some weak made hand and is making an uncharacteristic play, or even that he's just pulling a random bluff with nothing, but I'm not sure the combined chances of the above are enough to justify calling here.

Considering that you're multitabling and presumably have no other reads, if you have faith (i.e. a decent sample size of hands) in the PAHUD numbers, it's probably a fold. If those numbers are from like 20 hands or so, then it becomes far more awkward.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Isn't someone who calls a 6BB raise PF with JT+ going to try to get all their money in on that flop? Especially with my very standard-looking c-bet?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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...and if he did have a ten, why would he play it so straight-forward and see-through? Wouldn't you expect him to try and squeeze more out of me instead of pushing in such an obvious spot when the second ten hit?
 
S

Shandy

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I think this is a small problem with having these stats, you look at them and see a donk calling station, when really it could be Loose passive player skilled more in post flop play than preflop play, and just because they call a raise with 10J or Q10, doesnt mean that they dont put their opponent on an overpair, so maybe he thought calling 300 into a pot of about 1000 wasn't a bad move, considering he still probably has 5 outs, unless your holding is a pocket pair of his overcard, which he may or may not consider. Also this could be pocket 5s, or pocket 7s, which would usually play the way he has, although the turn shove is maybe not consistent with these holdings.
 
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Shandy

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...and if he did have a ten, why would he play it so straight-forward and see-through? Wouldn't you expect him to try and squeeze more out of me instead of pushing in such an obvious spot when the second ten hit?

yeah this is a valid point, but a bad player will quite often do this- ie get excited when they get a good hand and just shove, and a good player is also capable of this play, as a kinda double bluff.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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My thoughts are that there is definitely a case for calling here if we run through his line and realize it doesn't really match up with a ten very often.

Calling isn't the clear-cut 'right' action in this hand, but I think it's +EV in the long run. I don't think there's anything wrong with folding here either.

Results:

POKERSTARS GAME #10546340322: TOURNAMENT #53425917, $15+$1 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL III (25/50) - 2007/06/21 - 12:50:13 (ET)
Table '53425917 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: dragonfly112 (2895 in chips)
Seat 3: mlokke (1760 in chips)
Seat 4: onlyagolfer (3220 in chips)
Seat 5: Bergali (1260 in chips)
Seat 7: ChuckTs (2860 in chips)
Seat 8: joeb604 (1505 in chips)
ChuckTs: posts small blind 25
joeb604: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ks Kc]
dragonfly112: folds
mlokke: calls 50
onlyagolfer: calls 50
Bergali: folds
ChuckTs: raises 250 to 300
joeb604: folds
mlokke: folds
onlyagolfer: calls 250
*** FLOP *** [5h Td 7s]
ChuckTs: bets 300
onlyagolfer: calls 300
*** TURN *** [5h Td 7s] [Th]
ChuckTs: bets 700
onlyagolfer: raises 1920 to 2620 and is all-in
ChuckTs: thinks....thinks....thinks.....calls 1560 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [5h Td 7s Th] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChuckTs: shows [Ks Kc] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
onlyagolfer: shows [Ad 4d] (two pair, Tens and Sevens)
ChuckTs collected 5820 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5820 | Rake 0
Board [5h Td 7s Th 7c]
Seat 2: dragonfly112 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mlokke folded before Flop
Seat 4: onlyagolfer showed [Ad 4d] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sevens
Seat 5: Bergali (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ChuckTs (small blind) showed [Ks Kc] and won (5820) with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 8: joeb604 (big blind) folded before Flop
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Isn't someone who calls a 6BB raise PF with JT+ going to try to get all their money in on that flop? Especially with my very standard-looking c-bet?

Well, you and DM could play rings around me, but, As DM says, now he's "sure" he's ahead, and maybe he read your 6BB pf raise as a big pair that he's now ahead of.
 
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Shandy

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very nice call, and yeah i now see what you are saying about it not really fitting in with a 10 or full house, although i think a great player who puts you on an overpair is capable of making a move like this, thinking that you will go through the same reasoning, although these players are hopefully few and far between
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Oh, they are. Especially at the $16 level :/
 
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