KK flop action vs. TAG

[rob5775]

Okay, here goes...

This is about 50 hands into a SNG, currently 7 handed. KK in middle position, standard raise and 1 caller. Villains stats are 17/10/4 over 52 hands. I was around 16/12/5 over same amount. When villain has shown down, it has been good hands. He has defended his blind consistently, but has been playing fairly straightforward and I have not observed any odd or tricky plays by him. I have been fairly quiet the last dozen or so hands due to a couple bad plays and beats. My image (I think) is TAG, and I have fired off CB's on all my raises. Anyways:


$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (33450570), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:42:03 ET - 2007/12/06
SB posts small blind [40]
BB posts big blind [80]
Seat 6 (BTN) has the button.
Seat 2 : MP with 3240 chips.
Seat 5 : Hero with 1575 chips.
Seat 6 : BTN with 1575 chips.
Seat 7 : SB with 1690 chips.
Seat 8 : BB with 2195 chips.
Seat 9 : UTG with 3225 chips.

** Dealing hole cards **
Dealt to Hero :

Sklansky group: 1
UTG folds
MP folds
Hero raises to 240
BTN folds
SB folds
BB calls [160]
** Dealing Flop ** [Potsize: 520]

BB checks
Hero bets [240]
BB raises to 1,955, and is all in
Hero has 15 seconds left to act



I wanted to raise 320 but the slider stuck (ooops). Either I'm way ahead or way behind here. Whats my move and why?

 

[c9h13no3]

I think I fold here and hate myself later for it. Since he's tight, I'd give him some credit. Its just such a weird bet, it makes me want to call it. But after a really long think I'd probably put it down.

On the other hand, if you've been C-betting pretty regularly, maybe he thinks he's caught you in a bluff. Its a really hard call, and I think you could argue either way fairly well.

I think this is a situation where if you lay your hand down, he shows you AKos or pocket 8's, and if you call, he shows you AJ or pocket 6's.

 

[NineLions]

Hmm, similar to Chuck's thread where he minraised preflop by accident, your misbet might be a factor here too. Although not as much.

Shoving here seems pretty weird for a good player though. I don't see why he would shove a J unless he thinks you're a donk and will call with AK. It seems more likely that he has TT/99, thinks he might be ahead, and doesn't want a better hand to call.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

I think your raise and bet has enticed him to take a stab at taking the pot down. I would put him on a PP. This is definatly a WA/WB type of hand. I would call it but that's me.

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

A tough situation, but i would really think about what a tight aggressive player is doing pushing with a jack. If he is an experienced, solid player - his style relies on VALUE when he does pick up an excellent hand. In my opinion a push here doesn't make sense with your read of him.

As some other posters have mentioned, I would put him on a middle pocket pair. The move makes perfect sense if he has you on overcards. If he thinks you are also TAG, there are few hands you would have with a jack in them. Also, since you have been consistently CBing, that would also be a factor in his play obviously.

My opinion, he has middle pocket pair, and is trying to protect against a couple of overcards.

 

[Tygran]

Agree with most of the posts so far. What I do here really depends on my impression of the villain. If he's TAG and a solid player he's not going to shove a J here and he's certainly not going to shove 66 for example.

It makes more sense that he would be shoving 88, 99, TT or maybe QQ. He would have surely reraised AA but can't completely discount that possibility. If you have cbet consistently that would encourage a TAG player who is paying attention to shove the above hands here.

Can't rule out the possibility he does indeed have a jack but I would consider a PP lower than yours the more likely possibility.

It wouldn't even completely surprise me, though less likely than the above, to see him on more of a semi-bluff with AK or AQ. (semi because if that's what he has he probably believes it's good)

Bottom line..against a TAG opponent here you are ahead alot more than you are behind.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think your preflop raise was fine, Rob. The blinds are hopping up soon and we'll be in lots of spots where we'll have to steal blinds - if we've been raising 4BBs with our monsters and then suddenly start raising 2.5 or 3BB in obvious stealing spots, our opponents are going to notice.

I also agree that this isn't a jack (or 66) very often. Those hands are definitely still in his range, but so are a lot of weak two pair hands and bluffs. I call this.

 

[rob5775]

Thanks for the replies everyone - seems like theres a general agreement on what villain had. I'm at work now but I will post the results when I get home.

 

[zachvac]

I've really been struggling with overbets recently and wondering what the hell they mean. If we think this through from his POV we'd think if he had a J or 66 he wouldn't do that because he's not getting any value (unless he has 66 and he wants a J to call, but there are easier ways to get flopped trips to commit money to the pot) and if he doesn't he's in a position where he hardly ever gets paid off. But then if he thinks you'll think that, shoving from his POV might even be +ev considering the hands he could get a call from just considering how strange it is (ie this hand). For example if he raises, bets the turn, and then shoves on the river you could lay it down. Here he gets your entire stack if you call.

Now this is a low stakes game, so I'm not thinking this guy is a pro, I've noticed that mostly overbets like this usually mean a good hands but not the nuts. Although it doesn't make sense, usually they'll push when the scare card comes. I've seen KK shove when an A comes, a set shove when the 3rd flush card comes. Really stupid, but I've seen it happen countless times. I would say he probably has something like AA. He wasn't worried preflop and then the jacks come. Obviously no logical person would do this, and if we were at higher limits with good players I would say you could be right.

But as this is, with the possibility of AA or a J (also once in a while a 66, but I doubt it), and the massive overbet, I fold, knowing that if this is a bluff I make my money back when he bluffs in this position and I have the J.

 

[Tygran]

The problem with this zac, is that at lower limits it's very very rare to find someone who will make this random shove on this board with AA after the flop who wouldn't have just shoved AA preflop in my experience.

So, I'm discounting AA primarily by the lack of a preflop raise. But I did say in my original post it's an unlikely possibility and a risk I'm willing to take here because I think most of the time (vast majority of the time) we are ahead here. I'll pay off AA gladly on the rare occassions it's played this way in exchange for all the won pots when he has one of what I would consider to be more likely hands.

At higher limits yeah I would consider this play a little bit more likely but still unusual.

This might just be me though.

 

[mrsnake3695]

If we fold here we are the short stack with 11-12 times the BB. I can't see folding KK here. I think he could shove with any number of hands that don't beat us including 2 over cards. He certainly could but you on being weak with maybe 2 overcards and push any pair. Lot's of possibilities and I just don't see laying down KK with this board. Wouldn't be shocked to see AJ though but oh well.

I think the chips stacks and tourney situation dictate the decision. If we fold we are short stacked and facing blind pressure. If we call and win we cripple a player and move into a virtual tie for first. Of course we are out if we call and lose but overall we are probably better than 50/50 to have the best hand here so I call.

 

[jaketrevvor]

Well, given you posted this it obviously meant you called, and if he had had AJ or 66 you wouldn't have posted is my guess - so I predict you called and he, having picked up on your constant c-betting, has Q high or 22 (or very possibly A6) REVEAL!

 

[Biffle16]

My guess is that he had Qs. Obviously the board did not scare him and he felt that you could not beat him. I probably would have called.

 

[vanquish]

I snapcall here and expect to see something like TT

 

[rob5775]

Well, given you posted this it obviously meant you called, and if he had had AJ or 66 you wouldn't have posted is my guess - so I predict you called and he, having picked up on your constant c-betting, has Q high or 22 (or very possibly A6) REVEAL!

Obviously you haven't read my old HA's... I usually try to post ones where I lose, so I can try to figure out my mistakes.

The problem I had with this hand was my read of villain. As stated, he was TAG and seemed to be a solid player. I got caught up in meta game thinking... if he puts me as a decent player then he knows that his shove will appear weak (i.e. middle pair, bluff) and I would likely call the bet. Thinking this, if he does have the J (or AA or 66) then a shove would likely get paid off.

Up to that point he had been fairly straight forward and played his big hands aggressively. I think I may have over thunk his play too much, but would have felt like an ass if I called and he did have the J when I was willing to give him credit for it.

Anyways, I called after using my time and he showed pocket 9's. I will post the HH later.

 

[Chris_TC]

I see you already resolved it, but I call in this spot all day long.
A Jack won't normally make that play, your opponent made a typical brute-force bluff ("LOOK, Theres TWO JACKS on the board!! LOOK how much I'm betting!! I'm RISKING IT ALL! I HAVE A JACK!!!!"), and in an SNG I don't fold Kings here pretty much ever.