KK on bubble of Satellite

[zachvac]

pokerstars Game #21669805812: Tournament #117748352, 5400FPP Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/11/01 12:12:45 ET
Table '117748352 1' 10-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: Stullxxenjack (7885 in chips)
Seat 4: donkeyxxpunish (2460 in chips)
Seat 5: zachvac (1590 in chips)
Seat 6: DreamxxJW (1965 in chips)
Seat 7: max_xxsich (1100 in chips)
zachvac: posts small blind 75
DreamJW: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zachvac [Kd Kh]
max_xxsich: folds
Stullenxxjack: raises 300 to 450
donkeyxxpunish: folds
zachvac ?

So stack sizes show that I'm slightly ahead of 5th place, this is a satty that pays top 4 the same. This is the chip leader and he's just been super-lag so I know he's calling with any PP/Ax. Not positive on the ICM of this whether I should take the 80-20 or 70-30 or w/e it is or fold and let the player with 7 BBs who's about to get the BB bust. My logic is I'm crushing the range he calls with and a flip by the other player will likely be closer to 50-50. But on the other hand even if he doubles up he's barely ahead of me. Is this a shove or fold and wait?

 

[bombomb]

hmmm tough decision here i think you could safely say that the guy probably doesnt have pocket aces so you would be ahead by a long shot the problem with folding is that if the small stack doubles you will be next to go, id say shove and secure your spot if you get unlucky well thats the way the cookie crumbles KK doesnt come to often

 

[Kenzie 96]

Big hand & you are hardly in a position to sit & wait for someone else to blind out & guarantee you a spot, push & put the pressure back on Big Stack.

 

[AlBundy24]

Big hand & you are hardly in a position to sit & wait for someone else to blind out & guarantee you a spot, push & put the pressure back on Big Stack.

Agreed 100%. You don't have much more than the current short stack, not to mention you don't have much to play around with period. 10xBB left, pretty much auto shove. Only hand that could be ahead of you is AA, so even Ax is drawing to 3 outs from the get. Any pp is drawing to 2 outs, and any other hand either needs to make a flush, straight, or 2 pair to beat you. So, unless you are just extremely unlucky to lose this hand, you have to put it all in. If you just call and see the flop and there's an A in it, then you can get away from the hand. Problem with this play is that now YOU would be the shortstack. If you opt to fold the hand, you probably need to take some time away from cards. Don't let being on the bubble affect your play. Big stacks will take advantage of that and he could've just been buying blinds with a trash hand. If you shove and he calls with some trash like 75o and makes a straight, you always have that option to do some research, find the guy, and punch him in the face . Totally kidding, but admit it, there has been times you've wanted to do that lol. Hope this helps. Get your chips in with the best hand and there's nothing you can do but hope you don't get unlucky. Good luck and have fun.

 

[dj11]

Assuming this is the Final table, you are between the rock and the hard place, no doubt.

Question really is, can you lay down KK here? You will not see another hand so sweet before the end of this game. At least you can't expect another opportunity like this to present itself in this tourney.

If you fold here, you will be folding every hand till it ends.

Of course, fate could show you AA the next hand. Once every 217 hands isn't it? Or is it once every 2k hands? If this is the final table with top 4 getting the same prize, there aren't 20 hands left in this tourney.

 

[vanquish]

I shove, he folds here really often and the times he calls you are like 78% to be guaranteed a seat.

 

[vanquish]

Assuming this is the Final table, the way I read that HH you are slightly ahead of 4th place, firmly in 3rd at that moment, with 5 players remaining.

You are between the rock and the hard place, no doubt.

Question really is, can you lay down KK here? You will not see another hand so sweet before the end of this game. At least you can't expect another opportunity like this to present itself in this tourney.

If you fold here, you will be folding every hand till it ends.

Of course, fate could show you AA the next hand. Once every 217 hands isn't it? Or is it once every 2k hands?

Talk about typing a whole lot and not saying anything at all at the same time...

 

[zachvac]

Assuming this is the Final table, the way I read that HH you are slightly ahead of 4th place, firmly in 3rd at that moment, with 5 players remaining.

You are between the rock and the hard place, no doubt.

Question really is, can you lay down KK here? You will not see another hand so sweet before the end of this game. At least you can't expect another opportunity like this to present itself in this tourney.

If you fold here, you will be folding every hand till it ends.

Of course, fate could show you AA the next hand. Once every 217 hands isn't it? Or is it once every 2k hands?

No I'm in 4th, and top 4 cash. Obviously I'm not folding because I think he has me beat, I'm just wondering if it's better to fold and let the blinds hit the nit shortstack.

My logic though was that basically he's going to get into a flip situation in which case I'll be last and have to end up with a flip or slightly worse. If I won that flip I still wouldn't be guaranteed a seat, and that's ~75%. So I figured I'd take the guaranteed 65-80% of doubling up. So I shove, villain snapcalls A6, hits an A, I lose. I was posting this regardless though. This was not about wondering if I should wait for a better spot, it was about waiting for the shortstack to flip for stacks instead of me with 5 left in a 4-payout structure with all the same prize.

 

[jyow]

No I'm in 4th, and top 4 cash. Obviously I'm not folding because I think he has me beat, I'm just wondering if it's better to fold and let the blinds hit the nit shortstack.

My logic though was that basically he's going to get into a flip situation in which case I'll be last and have to end up with a flip or slightly worse. If I won that flip I still wouldn't be guaranteed a seat, and that's ~75%. So I figured I'd take the guaranteed 65-80% of doubling up. So I shove, villain snapcalls A6, hits an A, I lose. I was posting this regardless though. This was not about wondering if I should wait for a better spot, it was about waiting for the shortstack to flip for stacks instead of me with 5 left in a 4-payout structure with all the same prize.

but you have a problem then if the shortstack wins his flip, then you would the be super short stack and everyone would just wait for you to blind out and its doubtful you would get a hand quite as good again. good decision to shove here i say despite bubbling

 

[petey5o]

yeah i ran into the exact hand in exact situation in a super statlite to an ftops event a few weeks ago, I had BB KK, with about 6k...and 5th place had about 5k so i knew i had to do something, The guy betting into me kept going all in, i figured he had something when he did it, that was his way of taking blinds. He did it and i was sittin bb with KK. i called ...he showed A10 suited, He won..i turned my 8 dollars into 3 dollars lol after an hour and ahalf of solid poker. I would just fold your Kings there and pretend i never got dealt them.

 

[p0K35]

Is this a shove or fold and wait?

Well, you have more choices than that. Plus, you should play to win the game...

Insta Raise to 1100

I'll tell you why....

 

[Mortis]

Big hand & you are hardly in a position to sit & wait for someone else to blind out & guarantee you a spot, push & put the pressure back on Big Stack.

I was about to say the same thing.

The short stack still has 1100 chips.. if they had around 500 or less, then I say fold.. but re-raise with your Kings.. maybe give him a chance to fold.. if not, you have a monster hand to go in with.

 

[ph_il]

Well, you have more choices than that. Plus, you should play to win the game...

Insta Raise to 1100

I'll tell you why....

uh...explain, plz.

 

[petey5o]

I thought more and more about it, and i think its a lose lose situation. Unless you call and win the pot. I mean what if you folded, never had another hand, the shortstack doubled up, and you finished on the bubble that way how would you feel about the then. You put your money in ahead, Thats all you can ask for, Results will be different next time.

 

[Mortis]

No I'm in 4th, and top 4 cash. Obviously I'm not folding because I think he has me beat, I'm just wondering if it's better to fold and let the blinds hit the nit shortstack.

My logic though was that basically he's going to get into a flip situation in which case I'll be last and have to end up with a flip or slightly worse. If I won that flip I still wouldn't be guaranteed a seat, and that's ~75%. So I figured I'd take the guaranteed 65-80% of doubling up. So I shove, villain snapcalls A6, hits an A, I lose. I was posting this regardless though. This was not about wondering if I should wait for a better spot, it was about waiting for the shortstack to flip for stacks instead of me with 5 left in a 4-payout structure with all the same prize.

Regardless of losing the hand and out on the bubble.. I still think you made the right decision.

 

[califantasy]

If you had a ton of chips, I think a fold is pretty easy. Fishman talks about folding aces on the bubble in a satellite in his book too if you aren’t likely to soon be at risk.

I think what makes your situation unique is your chip stack, and proximity to the payout.

If you fold, you are risking that the smaller stack will eventually push all in and either pick up blinds to make you small stack, or perhaps double through to make you very small stack.

If you go all in, I'm sure you are getting a call from any marginal hand here (since you are laying two to one), and it will put you at risk. Even against 89 suited, you are going home 1 in 4 times.

Here is what I would do--Call.

If you call, you could get away if an ace flops (1 in 5 chance). It will leave you with a little less than the short stack right now, but he has the blinds coming next, so he will soon be lower than you again. If the ace doesn't flop, you are first to act, so you will likely win with a shove, and not have to risk him hitting the turn and river if he has only an ace. The $1k that you didn’t plow in pre-flop still has some fold equity if he doesn’t improve.

In the rare event that he calls, he probably owns an under pair or he flopped one pair, and you are still in great shape to double through.

 

[crazyfool]

Man I had KK in an annoying little situation not the same. 4 people left in multi table. First to 4th money something like 120, 70, 50 40 i a 3rd in chips with 60k i think. Chip leader 200k or so other guy 120 or so.
Last guy is not there he had been sitting out since final table started. He was one hand from the big blind which woulda put him all in. I am first to act with kings. I wanted to fold so bad but I couldnt and also figured Im against the BB and it would be nice to win the blinds at least. I go all in chip leader calls with A 10 and i lost 10 bucks cause i didnt fold kk.

 

[OzExorcist]

I shove, he folds here really often and the times he calls you are like 78% to be guaranteed a seat.

^ this.

The problem here for me is that the short stack isn't really all that short. He's got an M of 4.8, a lot can happen in the next 20 hands and you're not far enough ahead of him to be comfortable. Taking this pot down, on the other hand, puts us into at least third place.

Like Van says, I think if we shove this the villain folds a really big chunk of the time and if he calls we've gotta figure we're a favourite.

 

[p0K35]

uh...explain, plz.

You're joking? Right?

With barely 11BB, how can you fold here? What are you waiting for? ppA?

 

[Jack Daniels]

He's got an M of 4.8, a lot can happen in the next 20 hands and you're not far enough ahead of him to be comfortable.

Effective M is only 2.4 since we're down to 5 of a 10-max table. Much closer to the deadzone.

/nit picking

 

[ChuckTs]

HoldemResources.net: ICM Nash Calculator

Good icm calc for non-standard payout structures.

I'm too lazy to punch it all in.

You're joking? Right?

With barely 11BB, how can you fold here? What are you waiting for? ppA?

You fail to understand it's a satellite which changes the dynamics of the game completely. People not only will shove/call shoves with tighter ranges meaning our equity isn't as good on average, but we're not playing to win, we're playing to cash which means survival >>> chip accumulation.

 

[MarkH10]

Multiple folds

First choice is "is this the hand I am willing to bust or get stacked with?'
I would say 'Yes' about 98% of the time.

Allow this guy room to make a mistake, and to make a good decision to fold. I reraise here. He gets a fold button. If you push allin he gets only one, and you get none. If he reraises you can fold, or reraise agn, which I would.

What was your plan if an A hits the flop and K misses?

You can still be presented a reraise allin, and still take it, and be ahead I think. You can also get some info about his AA possiblities, however with 150 increments through your stack size, in the betting not too much room to maneuver.

Right choices are Push or Reraise.

PS
I just got busted last night.
1400 started, I am on the button, short stacked, JJ pushed into BB with AA, and he flopped one. Any loss here sure hurts, but in my mind you only can make the right decision, fold/rr/allin. Nothing is 'wrong' with any of these.

I'm watching TV poker, the wsop last 2 tables to the main. Lot of different ramifications to each selection.

 

[OzExorcist]

Effective M is only 2.4 since we're down to 5 of a 10-max table. Much closer to the deadzone.

/nit picking

True, and good point.

Still, he's good for about 20 hands, and I just don't know if that's so close to death that we can fold our way into the money just yet.

 

[vanquish]

True, and good point.

Still, he's good for about 20 hands, and I just don't know if that's so close to death that we can fold our way into the money just yet.

Vanquish Theorem #2: If you think you can fold into the money in a satellite, you are probably mistaken.

 

[OzExorcist]

HoldemResources.net: ICM Nash Calculator

Good icm calc for non-standard payout structures.

I may or may not have entered the data correctly (not 100% sure how to treat the payout breakdown, I put it at .25 for first through fourth), but this would seem to be the results:

HoldemResources.net: ICM Nash Calculator=

Unless I'm reading it wrong (or entered the data wrong - let's face it, both are possible) it says push KK+ here.