JJ UTG @ CC Full Tilt Buy-in Final Table

[blankoblanco]

villain is the aggressive aliengenius.. on a different computer with no PT stats, so that's all you get. call or fold?

full tilt poker Game #3852819132: Cardschat.com $100 Added (25992695), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:12:05 ET - 2007/10/14
Seat 1: pedroman7 (1,575)
Seat 2: njpokerhoney (7,040)
Seat 3: kittyxxkat (9,940)
Seat 4: snrcreech (3,745)
Seat 5: Kenzie 96 (1,385), is sitting out
Seat 6: aliengenius (2,900)
Seat 7: combuboom (3,605)
Seat 9: dj1113 (2,810)
Kenzie 96 posts the small blind of 60
aliengenius posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Jc Js]
combuboom raises to 360
dj1113 folds
pedroman7 has 15 seconds left to act
pedroman7 folds
njpokerhoney folds
kittyxxkat folds
snrcreech folds
Kenzie 96 folds
aliengenius raises to 2,900, and is all in
dj1113: now its KaBooms turn to die
combuboom: wow
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom: this is sick
combuboom has requested TIME
combuboom: AK?
aliengenius: all u can eat baby
combuboom: you should see my hand, this is sick

 

[Irexes]

Mmm might be AK but it's a sledgehammer way to play it when calling provides opportunity for post-flop play and inviting a coin-flip is a bit unnecessary given the stack.

AA or KK are possible as the psychology says it's a defensive move thus inviting the call if he thinks you can't let go.

More likely though is QQ which is not great postflop if an A or K hit given your raise and with the stack sizes a decent cbet is going to make his stack too short.

JJ is also possible.

Could be other things, but I'll go with QQ 60% of the time and AK, AA, KK, JJ and any two for the other 40% and fold.

 

[Emperor IX]

Agh, I hate over shoves. I'd call and cry when I saw AA/KK/QQ

 

[zippyflounder]

call, he dont want to see a flop and a good agressive player wants to.

 

[Zorba]

Call

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You've raised UTG - what range do you think he's putting you on? Would AA-TT/AK be fair? If so, he's shoved on you knowing that it's likely you're not going to be folding a lot of hands in your range, and you have a hand that's close to the bottom of the range he likely assigns to you.

I fold this if so. If we extend the range he's likely assigning to us to something like AA-88/AK-AQ then it becomes close.

 

[blankoblanco]

it's 8-handed with 1 sit out, so essentially 7 handed. my UTG raising range is definitely beyond AA-TT/AK, and i'm pretty sure he knows that. your second range looks pretty good, and add in AJs, if not AJ and KQs

 

[pigpen02]

I think AA or KK would not be as big a raise. QQ fits. Maybe AK, JJ or TT. You are ahead on two, behind on one, split pot on fourth. Call and rack up another entry on the coinflip-ometer.

 

[ChuckTs]

I've never really played AG before so I can't say what his pushing range is based on his style.

If we're 88+, AJ+ and KQs+ and he knows it, then he could definitely be pushing some <premium hands knowing that he's got good FE.

This is just another one of those multi-level thought process hands. He could either be shoving because he doesn't want to see a flop, ie he has a weak hand, or he could be shoving because he wants to make it look like he has a weak hand. OR he could be shoving because he wants you to think that. He thinks that you think that he thinks that you think that he thinks....

Anyways, I think this depends heavily on your reads on AG (not what you wanted to hear, right?). If you think he's likely to be on a weak resteal here, then shoot for it. You won't be completely dead if you call and lose, and you can always outdraw a bigger pair.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

it's 8-handed with 1 sit out, so essentially 7 handed. my UTG raising range is definitely beyond AA-TT/AK, and i'm pretty sure he knows that. your second range looks pretty good, and add in AJs, if not AJ and KQs

Looks like a marginal call to me then.

 

[vanquish]

Another bluff by AG ldo.

 

[blankoblanco]

but here's the thing: even if AG knew my exact range.. can it really be profitable for him to push a 99/TT/AQ here? i don't think it is.

say he has TT here. if i have 99 or less i'm auto-folding, so he's killing the value of it. if he gets action, he's flipping or crushed. yeah he picks up 3 BBs when i fold, but when i have a better pair, at least 3 out of 4 times i'm snapping it off and he's putting like ~26 BBs in jeopardy as an 80/20 dog (and the 3 out of 4 is if i'm folding JJ, which he obviously can't count on me doing). it's a high risk low reward proposition because the blinds aren't significant enough yet (and no antes).

basically i didn't believe he'd do this with TT hardly ever, 99 never, AQ never. so i think a fold is prudent if that assumption is correct, right? i put his range on JJ+/AK. and i'll add that i do believe AG is capable of doing this with a bigger pair instead of a smaller, more obvious reraise, although i'm not sure how often he would. pretty much what chuck was saying about him wanting me to think he had a weaker holding or was making a play. AG has the image of someone who can make plays, but i doubt he'd be so reckless in this particular spot with no reason to believe i'm folding

 

[aliengenius]

I can't believe all the people who said "call" here.

If you put my range as: AA, KK, QQ, or AK only this is a clear fold.

Six ways each to make the pairs (6 x 3 = 18), and 16 ways to make AK. That means that over half the time you you are crushed, and just under half the time you are flipping. How can you even think of calling unless you put me on an expanded range greater than the above?

JJ is very unlikely, as you have two of them in your hand.

I think AA or KK would not be as big a raise. QQ fits. Maybe AK, JJ or TT. You are ahead on two, behind on one, split pot on fourth. Call and rack up another entry on the coinflip-ometer.

You know that not all these hands are equally likely, that pairs can be made a lot less ways than unpaired hands, right?
(see above)

 

[blankoblanco]

AG,

i'd guess some people are putting you on expanded ranges partly due to your image. however, like i said, i don't think you're going to be reckless here when i've shown no sign of weakness. i'd imagine you prefer to make moves postflop when you can actually read weakness in a player's line

also, some probably question if you're capable of making this big of a raise with AA or KK instead of a smaller reraise (or maybe smoothcall). i for one think you could, but i have no way of knowing for sure, or how often you would.

result: i folded, AG had AKs, i dodged another entry on the coinflip-ometer