JJ late in $10 rebuy wif akshun!

[ChuckTs]

Well everybody was being real nice and letting me know how solid of a laydown it was, but the more I think about it, the easier it looks. Opinions?

utg is ~10/10 at this point, and the BB is ~30/20, but hasn't made many reraises - mostly just first-in steals. EDIT: oh, and I'm about 20/10 at this point.

What's our calling range here?

pokerstars Game #10894567252: Tournament #54722420, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (3000/6000) - 2007/07/12 - 00:02:10 (ET)
Table '54722420 64' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: mundos (118812 in chips)
Seat 4: ChuckTs (124636 in chips)
Seat 5: OldsCutlas97 (216575 in chips)
Seat 6: AllinUrGril (243987 in chips)
Seat 7: McBeasterson (150561 in chips)
Seat 8: JPISGAY (103682 in chips)
mundos: posts the ante 600
ChuckTs: posts the ante 600
OldsCutlas97: posts the ante 600
AllinUrGril: posts the ante 600
McBeasterson: posts the ante 600
JPISGAY: posts the ante 600
AllinUrGril: posts small blind 3000
McBeasterson: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Jh Jd]
JPISGAY: raises 12000 to 18000
mundos: folds
ChuckTs: raises 37555 to 55555
OldsCutlas97: folds
AllinUrGril: folds
McBeasterson: raises 94406 to 149961 and is all-in
JPISGAY: folds
ChuckTs: folds
McBeasterson collected 135710 from pot
McBeasterson: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 135710 | Rake 0
Seat 1: mundos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ChuckTs folded before Flop
Seat 5: OldsCutlas97 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: AllinUrGril (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: McBeasterson (big blind) collected (135710)
Seat 8: JPISGAY folded before Flop

Sorry to include the results, but I already posted them in another thread anyways :/

 

[skoldpadda]

He's got no worse than AK suited or QQ. Good laydown.

 

[jeffred1111]

Good laydown, but there's no way I call this without cowboys, especially if BB hasn't made a lot of reraises. Probably had AA, KK, I'd even doubt AK would go all-in with such a stack and numbers.

 

[alan1983]

Theres gotta be some better way to play this than raising half your stack then folding. What was the plan if UTg reraised allin?

 

[pezjb]

I think you're raise was a little to big as well. If he bumped it 12K to 18K, I would say a raise of about 18K to 20K would be just fine. Unless you were really trying to just pick up the blinds and his initial raise. 20K would put the pot at 38K and make a much of an easier lay down.

 

[Ronaldadio]

If I have this right Chuck, u r at Final table with 6 left?

If so, this is similar to the old "when would you fold AA" posts.

First, I think at best u r slight fav - probable holdings AA/KK/AK, possible QQ, long shot JJ/AQ/1010. So, overall, IMO, its a fold.

Going back to the fold AA point. Also u r more likely to move up the prizes with a fold.

U r also in a position where u have more than 10 times bb left, so taking all into account, definate fold. If it was a bluff, gl to the guy!!!

Edit: alan1983 - I think the bet of the size it was by Chuck is even more reason to fold. JJ at that stage of the tourny I would be happy just to take down the blinds. The fact that someone is saying "I`ve got you beat means that it has to be a fold, IMO, is correct. more than 10 times bb at that stage is still OK taking into account that almost every move will be all in.

 

[ChuckTs]

Sorry, this was final 2 tables, and we're close to the FT bubble.

Regarding raising too much, I think you guys have a pretty good point. Raising 18K is a little too small, but we'll have position on the guy and it saves us a lot of chips should we get a push behind us.

I don't think my raise was too big (only slightly more than 3x his raise), but raising smaller definitely has it's advantages.

Now that I've slept on this, I think villain has to have a hand that beats mine here. I'm not sure if he does this with TT or even JJ. My chances change drastically if he does this with AK too, though.

w/o AK:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.450% 18.24% 00.21% 33724152 394992.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 81.550% 81.34% 00.21% 150414696 394992.00 { QQ+ }

So I'm a ~4:1 dog, and not getting the odds to call.

with AK:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

and we're only a 1.78:1 dog. We're getting ~3:1 on our call here (if I calculated right), so I guess the question is does he do this with AK?

 

[joeeagles]

It's a solid laydown Chuck, in a hand where I'm 99% sure you were behind while I watched it happen. Looking at the numbers now you were getting about 3 to 1 to call off your stack. While one could argue that you should call with those odds, I think it proves even more that villain has to have KK at least which puts you way behind. Great fold IMO.

Combu who was also there put you on JJ - TT, which I agreed with because of how long you thought about it before folding, and the time you took was already a sign you were in bad shape and I was thinking "fold Chuck!!" the whole time. I think this is just bad luck, getting JJ at the wrong time. Your reraise was 3x the original raise and with JJ that sounds just about right to me, raising less has merits but could be a mistake, because of odds offered to original raiser and the fact an overcard to a J comes more than 50% of times on the flop.

Dam do I hate JJ at times. But overall you did great in this tourney Chuck, nice job.

 

[blankoblanco]

Regarding the raise size; I think it was reasonable. It's just over 3x, and Chuck can't know he's going to run into a monster on the button/in the blinds. It was incredibly unlucky. But there are some merits to making it smaller, say, raising to 44,444

True, 95% of the time we're going to reraise and the button and blinds will fold and it will be back to UTG, instead of what happened. 44k is easier for UTG to call than 55k, but that's not necessarily bad, because we have position and probably the best hand. Position isn't always an advantage when stacks are so shallow, but here I think opponent will be somewhat concerned with the smaller reraise and be wary unless he hits the flop well. If an A hits and he shows us he likes it, we can consider folding. The other thing is that whether we raise to 44k or 55k, UTG, if he likes his hand, is very often just going to push all-in preflop anyway to negate being out of position and let himself see five cards with what is usually AK or AQ, TT-88.

So I don't think we lose out on much if anything by making a smaller raise to 44,444, but we save ourself a good portion of our stack when a player behind us comes over the top and we have to fold. It's worth considering

 

[joeeagles]

Regarding the raise size; I think it was reasonable. It's just over 3x, and Chuck can't know he's going to run into a monster on the button/in the blinds. It was incredibly unlucky. But there are some merits to making it smaller, say, raising to 44,444

True, 95% of the time we're going to reraise and the button and blinds will fold and it will be back to UTG, instead of what happened. 44k is easier for UTG to call than 55k, but that's not necessarily bad, because we have position and probably the best hand. Position isn't always an advantage when stacks are so shallow, but here I think opponent will be somewhat concerned with the smaller reraise and be wary unless he hits the flop well. If an A hits and he shows us he likes it, we can consider folding. The other thing is that whether we raise to 44k or 55k, UTG, if he likes his hand, is very often just going to push all-in preflop anyway to negate being out of position and let himself see five cards with what is usually AK or AQ, TT-88.

So I don't think we lose out on much if anything by making a smaller raise to 44,444, but we save ourself a good portion of our stack when a player behind us comes over the top and we have to fold. It's worth considering

Nice post Combu, you're probably right we shouldn't be too concerned about odds given to UTG if we raise less, and I think I'm worried a bit too much with JJ. Also, regardless of odds you're getting, I think when you get reraised you should be looking at the % of your stack that gets involved when you call, so that is mostly what UTG should be considering when he was faced with Chuck's reraise, besides other things like range and position. Furthermore, as you say, if he really likes his hand he'll call or shove anyway, giving us less of an escape hatch if he decides to get involved. The merits of raising less probably outweigh the risks overall, its definitely worth at least considering. My problem is mostly with the difficulty of playing JJ after the flop, which makes me hope he doesn't call so I like the bigger raise, but if you're scared buy a dog.

Good discussion.