interesting situation

[ilikadamoney]

edit - sorry for vague title just read the rule

this hand took place in a 10$ 180 on stars. i have no read on the villian before this hand.
pokerstars Game #11157292356: Tournament #56586712, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/07/27 - 01:58:25 (ET)
Table '56586712 15' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pbpoker (6465 in chips)
Seat 2: CHINNOOKAN (3645 in chips)
Seat 4: WeeBaws (4855 in chips)
Seat 6: ilikadamoney (5314 in chips)
Seat 7: craztch (9545 in chips)
Seat 8: BingoKing624 (8145 in chips)
Seat 9: guelph gold (1645 in chips)
CHINNOOKAN: posts small blind 100
WeeBaws: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ilikadamoney [8s 8h]
ilikadamoney: raises 600 to 800
craztch: folds
BingoKing624: raises 1000 to 1800
guelph gold: folds
pbpoker: folds
mattchews is connected
Howbout9to5 is connected
CHINNOOKAN: folds
WeeBaws: folds
ilikadamoney: calls 1000
*** FLOP *** [Jh 5h Kh]
ilikadamoney: checks
BingoKing624: bets 1800
ilikadamoney: ?

my read right here is that he has aa with no heart. given this i know i have odds to call (or push) but i'm not sure if i should commit when i know i'm behind. i would have around 3500 if i fold here, but im very confident in my read. thoughts?
p.s. assume i'm as good at reading this guy as i think i am, so if he had ak or aa with no ah, what should i have done

 

[shinedown.45]

If your read is correct at putting him on AA with no heart, then I would say............ok, now this is what I really think, he has TPTK with a heart or KK, and with his low bet, he's pricing you in the hand.
You could push here but something tells me he's not going away all you can really do here is call and hope to hit the heart and be able to push him off his hand, but if the board pairs, you will have to fold this.
Call me weak/tight if you like, but I would have probably folded to his raise pre-flop.

 

[HartAttack3]

no way can I call right here, if he didnt have a heart I really dont think he could bet with your raise PF. I put him on either aa, kk, ak, or less likely, qq. But I definitely think he has at least one heart, and odds are, its higher than yours and you are hopin for one of your 2 outs. Find a better spot, your not done, still have like 15bb after a fold, no biggie.

the question you need to ask yourself, whats he raising with, do I beat it, and is it worth it?

to tell you the truth, if he has aa no heart, id call just cuz its probably another bad beat to aa lol. But in all seriousness, how can you even think of calling if he has aa? Im sorry but I just cant chase a 4th heart, odds just arent good because you know at least 2-3 other people folded a heart at least.

 

[aliengenius]

odds just arent good because you know at least 2-3 other people folded a heart at least.

This is such a fundamental misunderstanding of poker I don't really know where to start...

You calculate odds based on unseen cards, which would be 47 after the flop (two in your hand, three on the flop = five out of 52 cards seen)-- that leaves nine outs to a flush draw. Since you don't know what anyone else has/had or what they folded you don't assign a value one way or the other.

Clonie Gowen addressed this in her Buff Mag Q&A:

Ask Clonie
by: Clonie Gowen
Hi Clonie,
My observations are concerning outs. Everyone agrees that outs are figured on the unseen cards. An inside straight-draw, therefore, has four outs. WRONG! In a ten-handed game there are 18 cards that cannot be in play as they are in players’ hands. However, these 18 cards are not blank. A value has to be placed on these cards. The numbers of outs has to be reduced by at least one third. An inside
straight-draw will have, at best, three outs. Your comments will be greatly appreciated.
Thank you,
Ed Lasecki
Dear Ed,
The number of outs you have has nothing to do with the number of cards that are in your opponents’ hands. If you have an inside straight-draw, you have four cards that fill your hand up, and, therefore, you have four outs; that never changes, unless you somehow know that one or more of your outs is unavailable.
You’re right in that the percentage chance of hitting one of your outs is affected by the cards in the other players’ hands – those cards do make a difference. But unless we somehow know what those cards are, it is impossible to assign a value to them. Therefore, we assign them the value “unknown” – the same value we assign to the remainder of the cards in the stub held by the dealer. We then count all unknown cards, no matter their location, when we figure out the percentage chances of hitting our hand. This makes the percentages completely accurate, as long as we use the total number of unknown cards, divided by the total number of outs, when we figure that percentage.
Best of luck,
Clonie

 

[stormswa]

that is about the silliest thing I have ever heard? what on earth could tell you he has no heart, what action did he make to hint on he has no heart?

im not even getting into the hand till you explain this.

 

[ilikadamoney]

that is about the silliest thing I have ever heard? what on earth could tell you he has no heart, what action did he make to hint on he has no heart?

im not even getting into the hand till you explain this.

based on my reads i think he has either ak or aa. if he had either of these hands he would have either the nut flush draw or no heart, and he would slowplay more with tptk and the nfd, or aa and the nfd.

 

[stormswa]

based on my reads i think he has either ak or aa. if he had either of these hands he would have either the nut flush draw or no heart, and he would slowplay more with tptk and the nfd, or aa and the nfd.

I dont think so, the board is very cordinated. If I had AA with one heart I would actully be trying to get it in on the flop here.

you should not even be in this hand to begin with honestly if you put him on AA you do not have enough odds HU to call this for set value, if you are calling for set value then you both have to have big stacks or has to be multiway.

if you raise and get reraised holding a small pair you both need to be very deep stacked to make this call correct. If you had around 7500- 8000 to start hand I could see making this call for set value I bolded that because that is what you are trying to hit, a set and if you dont you get the heck out of there.

 

[ilikadamoney]

I dont think so, the board is very cordinated. If I had AA with one heart I would actully be trying to get it in on the flop here.

you should not even be in this hand to begin with honestly if you put him on AA you do not have enough odds HU to call this for set value, if you are calling for set value then you both have to have big stacks or has to be multiway.

if you raise and get reraised holding a small pair you both need to be very deep stacked to make this call correct. If you had around 7500- 8000 to start hand I could see making this call for set value I bolded that because that is what you are trying to hit, a set and if you dont you get the heck out of there.

although this is not what i was wondering about, could you explain these odds. my thinknig was that if i called the extra 1k pf, there was a huge chance i could take a 11k pot if i hit a set, or he missed his a or k if he had ak.

 

[stormswa]

although this is not what i was wondering about, could you explain these odds. my thinknig was that if i called the extra 1k pf, there was a huge chance i could take a 11k pot if i hit a set, or he missed his a or k if he had ak.

once you raise with 88 and get re-raised you have to either put him on a overpair or 2 brodaway cards right? so at this point you have to call another 1k right?

that means you have to call 1/4 or so of your stack to hit, your set is about 12% to hit here and even if you hit your set there is no telling he is going to stack off to you here. I dont think your implied odds are enough here to make this call for set value.

and also you are taking yourself down to 15BB which means you are going to have to make some moves a little earlier then you might have wanted to. Or you can just fold your 88 and save yourself 5BB, now if someone would of called between you guys then yes I think you can run 88 there more profitable because one there would be alot more in the pot before you called, like 1800 more plus it is more likely you will be able to stack one of them when you hit.

if the flop would of came down like 823 it is very unlikely a smart player is stacking off there with AA and I know AK isnt. Your call pretty much screams pocket pair and with AA I would bet but I doubt im stacking off to you because your line is the line a small pair would take.

 

[ilikadamoney]

if the flop would of came down like 823 it is very unlikely a smart player is stacking off there with AA and I know AK isnt. Your call pretty much screams pocket pair and with AA I would bet but I doubt im stacking off to you because your line is the line a small pair would take.

i thought for a while before i made the call pf. i disagree that if he had aa he would not stack off if a flop like 832 came, but also i made the call because of the high chance he had ak. if a flop like 10 9 3 came, or even j q 5 i would be confindent enough in my read to commit if he did not convince me he had aa.

 

[stormswa]

i thought for a while before i made the call pf. i disagree that if he had aa he would not stack off if a flop like 832 came, but also i made the call because of the high chance he had ak. if a flop like 10 9 3 came, or even j q 5 i would be confindent enough in my read to commit if he did not convince me he had aa.

then why not overshove the hand preflop? if you are sure he has AK then it is pretty bad play to just call there just because you are bleeding off very needed chips at this stage of the tourney. Just calling here is just not good.

at least with the overshove you have fold equity. hell I would not be happy getting it in on flop with 88 if guy held AK on a QJx board. And with only 3500 to shove on flop I doubt he will be folding 2 overs and a gutshot, I dont know the numbers right now but I cant see you more then a 60/40 favorite against that hand. At least with shoving preflop you give him a chance to either make a overcall with AK which is bad or fold which is good for us. We want to give him chances to make a mistake here not play a small pair for stacks postflop.

 

[ilikadamoney]

then why not overshove the hand preflop? if you are sure he has AK then it is pretty bad play to just call there just because you are bleeding off very needed chips at this stage of the tourney. Just calling here is just not good.

at least with the overshove you have fold equity. hell I would not be happy getting it in on flop with 88 if guy held AK on a QJx board. And with only 3500 to shove on flop I doubt he will be folding 2 overs and a gutshot, I dont know the numbers right now but I cant see you more then a 60/40 favorite against that hand. At least with shoving preflop you give him a chance to either make a overcall with AK which is bad or fold which is good for us. We want to give him chances to make a mistake here not play a small pair for stacks postflop.

for one i limited his hand range to aa or ak, so push was not an option b/c the player who reraises with ak there when i have so little behind has almost no fold equity. as ive said i trust my reads so i figured i had better chance of winning/making the right decision without pushin pf when i was at best a coinflip. i agree calling was risky decision here but it was based on reads and is not what i'm thinking about.

 

[stormswa]

for one i limited his hand range to aa or ak, so push was not an option b/c the player who reraises with ak there when i have so little behind has almost no fold equity. as ive said i trust my reads so i figured i had better chance of winning/making the right decision without pushin pf when i was at best a coinflip. i agree calling was risky decision here but it was based on reads and is not what i'm thinking about.

not argueing with you because you make solid points but he actully does have fold equity here. Your shove would of been 3,500 more into the pot and he would have to call off I think like 1/2 of his stack here to make the call on what was at best a coin flip right?

I mean you were sitting there so you know how to play him better then I, im just going by what little info you gave us on him. Im putting myself in his shoes and seeing what I would do against your shove and most of the time im letting AK go there knowing I have plenty of chips and dont want to risk 1/2 or more on a coin flip at best usually.

 

[ilikadamoney]

not argueing with you because you make solid points but he actully does have fold equity here. Your shove would of been 3,500 more into the pot and he would have to call off I think like 1/2 of his stack here to make the call on what was at best a coin flip right?

I mean you were sitting there so you know how to play him better then I, im just going by what little info you gave us on him. Im putting myself in his shoes and seeing what I would do against your shove and most of the time im letting AK go there knowing I have plenty of chips and dont want to risk 1/2 or more on a coin flip at best usually.

i know you're not arguing i appreciate the discussion. i agree its possible that he does have fold equity, but at the 10$ sng limit i have not seen very many reraise folds with ak, i think there is almost no chance he folds there, even if a good or more experienced player should/would

 

[stormswa]

i know you're not arguing i appreciate the discussion. i agree its possible that he does have fold equity, but at the 10$ sng limit i have not seen very many reraise folds with ak, i think there is almost no chance he folds there, even if a good or more experienced player should/would

ok with all this info now do you still think calling 1/4 of your stack and shortstacking yourself if you dont hit your set is a good call preflop?

remember you are only hitting a set here 12% of the time.

I say shortstacking because 10-15 BB means you have to make moves that you really dont like making.

 

[ilikadamoney]

i see what you're saying but its just how i play to take some risks early with chance of getting a huge stack. now out of curiousity what do you think he had

 

[stormswa]

i see what you're saying but its just how i play to take some risks early with chance of getting a huge stack. now out of curiousity what do you think he had

his range could be very wide right here QQ with Q of hearts is possible but not likely. AK with A of hearts I still think is very big possiblility or AK without the heart trying to protect his TPTK and take it down on flop. I think AA migh of just shoved flop, even though its not great play its kinda expected from this level. He could even have some kind of combo draw or pair and a draw.

like I said you know more then me, kinda hard for me to say what he has here seeing as I was not there. Either way I think you have to fold this and wait even though I think you are going to show us that you shoved and hit your flush.

 

[ilikadamoney]

alright he had ak with no heart here, what should i have done

 

[stormswa]

alright he had ak with no heart here, what should i have done

you are only 33% to hit, so ask yourself are you willing to put your tourney life on a 33% race?

think you can answer your own question.

 

[ChuckTs]

my read right here is that he has aa with no heart.

As was mentioned, it's a little ridiculous to pin a player on a single hand after the very standard action (nevermind suits). His reraise of your utg raise indicates strength, probably AQ+ and JJ+ at this level, varying depending on his style.

We're way behind his range, and his very standard-looking c-bet looks to me like a trap, though it could be anything really. Just toss your hand and wait for a better spot. (I probably toss it PF after the reraise)

p.s. assume i'm as good at reading this guy as i think i am, so if he had ak or aa with no ah, what should i have done

Err fold?

We're drawing for a big chunk of our stack to a 4:1 draw to hit on the turn. Not a good situation. He's not going to pay you off either if the fourth heart drops. Drawing for a huge chunk of your stack, no implied odds - fold.

 

[ilikadamoney]

you are only 33% to hit, so ask yourself are you willing to put your tourney life on a 33% race?

think you can answer your own question.

i ran it through the odds calc it's more like 43% chance. tourney odds wise in this situation thats +ev correct?

 

[ChuckTs]

i ran it through the odds calc it's more like 43% chance. tourney odds wise in this situation thats +ev correct?

We're talking from flop to turn here, not flop to river. There's also the (probable) possibility of you facing another bet on the turn, and so your odds now won't count for flop-->river.

 

[stormswa]

i ran it through the odds calc it's more like 43% chance. tourney odds wise in this situation thats +ev correct?

tourney odds? never heard of them, I thought odds were odds. It cant be +ev becuase you will lose this hand more then win it. He has no fold equity so we can figure that into your odds to offset you are behind here. and you can count your odds correctly here because you can only speculate what he has, you have to discount odds for the fact that he might actully have a heart bigger then yours. You cant count odds from known cards he has after the hand to see if the call was correct.

We're talking from flop to turn here, not flop to river. There's also the (probable) possibility of you facing another bet on the turn, and so your odds now won't count for flop-->river.

this is what I said above but I said it better, darn cross posting.

 

[ilikadamoney]

We're talking from flop to turn here, not flop to river. There's also the (probable) possibility of you facing another bet on the turn, and so your odds now won't count for flop-->river.

well in my thinking there was no point to call here. obv call --> fold would be a pretty bad play leaving me shortstacked. my question is if his cards were face up would it be the right play to push, knowing i'd be out 57% of the time, but knowing odds wise its a good decision to put the chips in

 

[ilikadamoney]

tourney odds? never heard of them, I thought odds were odds. It cant be +ev becuase you will lose this hand more then win it. He has no fold equity so we can figure that into your odds to offset you are behind here. and you can count your odds correctly here because you can only speculate what he has, you have to discount odds for the fact that he might actully have a heart bigger then yours. You cant count odds from known cards he has after the hand to see if the call was correct.

tourney odds meaning although sometimes you will be +ev in chips, it is unnecessary to take the risk at a certain point in a tournament. this is different than cash game odds because cash is cash at a table, but chips don't have a set value at all points in a tournament