Implied odds, correct to call?

edge-t

edge-t

Rock Star
Villain has about 89 BB in this stack, I have about 98 bbs, we're pretty evenly stack, he's pretty loose, and likes to slowplay the nuts. Have a look at the hand below and tell me if my reasoning is correct to call the bet.

I'm holding QJo, the flop brings 3 hearts on the flop with a jack. Villian leads out with a min bet, I raised and others folded. He calls. I put him on flush draw, since he's in the SB position, he could be holding any range of cards. I figured that he could have made a flush too.

The turn gives me a Queen, that give me two pair, I bet out again and the villian raises. I paused for a long time(partly cause I was playing another table:D), he's got the nut flush I thought. I bet half the pot, he min raises another 7.5bb. At this point, there's 37.5bb in the pot. it'll cost me another 7.5bb to see the river. I have 4 outs to beat his flush. The pot odds is a 5:1 while the odds of me making the house is 10.5:1

If I call, there'll be 45bb in the pot, villian's left with 53bb in his stack, I got him covered. I figured that if I make the house, I can get him to go all in and get addition 53bb from him, which is pretty much breakeven implied odds. If I don't make it, I'll fold at the river. Have I made a mistake with my implied odds calculation?

I'm not good at calculating implied odds, beginning to learn.

Bodog History for Hand #561056696
Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2007-01-29 22:03:29
Table 'Muirfield Village' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: deathgrip ($9.50)
Seat 2: morpheus40 ($20.18)
Seat 4: itsips ($4.62)
Seat 6: donnylucky ($9.84)
Seat 7: gtmay ($8.90)
Seat 9: Action Stan ($16.54)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
gtmay: posts the small blind $0.05
Action Stan: posts the big blind $0.10
--- Pre-Flop
donnylucky is dealt Q♣ J♦
deathgrip: folds
morpheus40: calls $0.10
itsips: folds
donnylucky: calls $0.10
gtmay: calls $0.05
Action Stan: checks
--- DEALING FLOP 2♥ J♥ 9♥ (Pot: $0.40)
gtmay: bets $0.10
Action Stan: calls $0.10
morpheus40: folds
donnylucky: raises $0.40 to $0.50
gtmay: calls $0.40
Action Stan: folds
--- DEALING TURN Q♦ (pot: $1.50)
gtmay: checks
donnylucky: bets $0.75
gtmay: raises $0.75 to $1.50
donnylucky: calls $0.75

--- DEALING RIVER Jc (pot: $4.50)
gtmay: bets $1.50
donnylucky: goes all in $7.74
gtmay: goes all in $5.30
$0.94 is not called, return back to donnylucky:

---Results
gtmay: shows 7h Ah, a Flush
donnylucky: shows Qc Jd, a Full House, Jacks full of Queens
gtmay: shows 7h Ah, a Flush
Hand 561056696:
donnylucky: wins main pot($18.01)
with a Full House, Jacks full of Queens
gtmay: is sitting out

 
Last edited:
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
1) I don't think we can assume he has the made flush yet. Yes it's a possibility, but it's not %100 yet. I suppose the % would be based on your reads of him.

2) You're getting great pot odds, and although you may only have 4 outs and need to make alot of money on the river if he in fact does have the flush, you're still up against other hands that you have beat enough of the time to make this call good. I mean you could very easily still be ahead here - does he not make this play with like - AhQx here? or KhQx?

In short, yes I call. You could very well still be ahead. I call, then see what he throws out on the river, and if it's good enough to call then I will.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Just realized I didn't even answer your actual question re: implied odds :p

Here's my attempt:

Pot odds:

There is 3.75 in the pot, and it's .75 to you. You're getting 3.75:0.75 or
5:1. Not good enough to chase your 10.5:1 shot to the river. So we need to make up for that extra bit with implied odds...

***This only applies IF we are putting villain on a flush %100 here. He could still be behind on the turn which is why I say it's an easy call without calculating implied odds***

Implied odds:

So we need to win enough on the river (if we do hit) to make up for the bad pot odds.

Since

3.75:0.75 = 5:1, we need

x:0.75 = 10.5:1

or x/0.75 = 10.5/1
--> x= 0.75*10.5
x=7.875
or
x=~7.88

So considering we only have 3.75 in the pot right now and we need to make it 7.88:

7.88-3.75 = 4.13

So we need to make 4.13 minimum on the river to make this turn call legit again *IF we put him on a flush %100*. Which we don't.
 
edge-t

edge-t

Rock Star
Thanks for the replies guys. I'm glad I called and proceeded to make his stack mine. That's another 5.3 from him, more than the amount chuck calculated. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

The results is in the original post, just need to use your mouse and select the text in light blue and you'll see it.

Anyway, he does have the ace high flush. Somewhere in the night, I heard a scream of agony as I sweep his stack in. :D
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top