Was I stupid?

[titans4ever]

What is the right move here?

This happened to me yesterday in a live MTT NLH. It is the middle of the tournament with about 25 people left, I had about 7300 in chips with blinds at 150-300 and am in middle position.

I call with and get to see the flop with 5 people (UTG+1, me, button, SB and BB).

Flop is

Checked to me, I bet the pot at 1500. Folded to UTG+1 who goes all in for 7000, dead even with you. I have just moved to the table and have not seen them play any hands yet. Hmmmm?

You are on the flush and straight draw but are still drawing. What is your move?

I will check back and tell you what I did and tell you the results of the hand.

 

[Sammyv1]

Well its always tough to put ALL your chips in the pot on a Draw. But here you have an excellent drawing hand. (4) jacks (4) sixes and (9) spades thats 17 total outs. So you have to put in $5,500 in to a pot of 10,000. so your have 1.8 to 1 in pot odds. You have a total of 17 outs and that is .67 to 1 to hit with 2 cards to come. Even if you don't count all of your outs you would have to go all the way down to 9 outs to get to approximately 1.86 to 1 odds before its not worth calling. I think this is a must call here. I don't usually answer these questions so I'm curious to see how well I have done.

Let me have it if I'm wrong.

 

[Osmann]

I actually think you should fold, but it is a very tough decision. It all depends on if you are willing to gamble. If your opponent either has a higher flush draw or a set then you are in a bad position. (35% against the flush draw and 40% against a set). If you are up against 2 pair it's a coin toss. Pair of 10's has you as a 56% favourite, so it's also basicly a coin toss. So the only thing where you are a good favourite is a gainst a bluff.
The thing he most likely holds is imo the ace high flush draw, but is difficult to say because you just arrived at the table.

If it was a ring game, I would definately call, because calling is the ev+ play, but I would probably lay down my hand, and live to fight another day.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think I'd call. too many outs to give up
you also have the minute chance of hitting 2 pair to overthrow his top pair (if thats what he has)
then again he might have hit a set with something like 55 or 77; he made a pretty strong bet
then again with 25 people left, i'm assuming you're around the cash bubble
people do crazy things in the bubble

 

[chicubs1616]

I think I'm calling here, it sounds like you are still a long way away from the money at this point and you will need to accumulate chips to make it there.

He might have something like AT-AK, some random two pair, a set, or the worse case scenario, a higher flush draw...

With 15 outs from flush/straight draws, you might only be good on ~12 of them if you factor in the possibility he is on a higher draw. I would also add 1-2 outs for an 8 or a 9 that might help you (if he has something like AK/AQ).

Overall, given a hypothetical 14 outs, I'm calling here.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I like checking behind on the flop here, (a) because if Button checks we get a free card, and (b) because if he bets we can pull off a check-raise.

I don't like UTG+1's play here - reeks of either a flush draw or 55/77 (weird way to play either, but it's all I can see here, unless he's donking it up with something like AT/KT/A7), either of which have redraw outs even if you hit on the turn.

In the absence of reads, pot odds alone tell you to call here though.

 

[t1riel]

You tried to play agreesive with this hand but it appears the player who went all in caught a good hand on the flop. Right now, you have draws. Granted, you have many outs. But, the player who went all in might have a hgiher flush draw and straight draw. If that's the case, you're still behind. I would fold and cut your losses. I would rather lose to a better hand than 8, 9 suited.

 

[Four Dogs]

I say your lucky he raised you. You get a second chance to do what you should have done the first time. You push all in here. With 4 callers, you were bound to get some action with a pot sized bet. This is the only way to shake the chasers. With 15 outs, your a strong favorite. It would be a shame to lose to a higher flush or a lower straight because you didn't push hard enough. Are you risking your tournament? Certainly, but that's poker.

 

[Styrofoam]

My guess is he has either: 1) an overpair or 2) trips.

I doubt he's on a flush draw, but if he is, then you are beaten - but you can't throw away your hands because you're scared of the worst. You've got ALOT of outs here. 9 spades, 3 jacks and 3 sixes. 15 outs gives you roughly a 52% chance to complete your hand by the river. If he's not on a higher flush draw, you're more than not going to hit your hand. You've even got a shot at backdooring 2 pair (which could win, but likely you're against trips) and backdooring the true nuts (7spades 6 or jack of spades)

if a 6 falls and no other spade comes, and the board doesn't pair - you've got the nuts. No doubt in my mind that you push here.

 

[TheAudition]

Well its always tough to put ALL your chips in the pot on a Draw. But here you have an excellent drawing hand. (4) jacks (4) sixes and (9) spades thats 17 total outs. So you have to put in $5,500 in to a pot of 10,000. so your have 1.8 to 1 in pot odds. You have a total of 17 outs and that is .67 to 1 to hit with 2 cards to come. Even if you don't count all of your outs you would have to go all the way down to 9 outs to get to approximately 1.86 to 1 odds before its not worth calling. I think this is a must call here. I don't usually answer these questions so I'm curious to see how well I have done.

Let me have it if I'm wrong.

Be careful don't double count outs Jack of spades and six of spades can't be counted twice. He only has 15. Id call your the favorite to win vs any overpair. And only 42 percent dog vs a made set.

 

[titans4ever]

Sammy and Osmann hit both sides of the story right away. Sammy was thinking exactly the way I was at the table (minus his outs mistake). I have a 10k pot and need to invest my last 5500 into it. The pot odds are there to make the call if all my outs are good.

When I got home and plugged the hand into the calculator I did not realize just how much of a dog I was to a set. I had a 40% chance to win. Any flush draw with one overcard (even As 2s, Js 2s) still has me looking very bad when I plugged it in.

Here is what happened:
I did not think he had a high A (AJ, AQ, etc.) or 10 10 since he had limped in, most people would raise preflop to narrow the field. I was thinking more of or was possible. I also thought of A 10 and he was trying to protect the draw or he hit the nasty set. Last but not least I had thought of and he had the same number of outs except I was drawing to larger straight and flush. In my minute brain I thought I was still drawing but favored in the hand with 15 outs to beat even the set with the flush and straight draw that is about a 60% chance to hit one of my cards.

I called and he shows The suspense did not last long because I hit my flush on the turn.

I just thought it was a good lesson for me in trying to not only count outs but outs to the best hand. I never would have imagined that I would have been such a dog to a made set on the flop with a straight and flush draw.

 

[Styrofoam]

I'm glad you called him...

the reason you're a dog to a made set is because 1) he's already made his set, and while you're ~52% to make your hand by the river (straight or flush) his set can improve to a boat or quads PLUS the 48% you have to not make your hand.


If he DID have a set of 10, then your real outs are actually 14, not 15, since the 7 of spades is going to give him the boat, a running pair on the turn/river gives him a boat the last 10 gives him quads. Its not as dire as you'd think.

good call though, and congrats. He was much weaker than I had thought